Chris Tierney - cstcst

Pretty good week when the top correlation was Watson / Hopkins / Ebron.  That was a good start to making some money last weekend.  Week five is here, and we now have what I consider to be some actionable data.  There are a bunch of massive totals this weekend and these games should draw the majority of ownership.  Below are some correlations that I like to have success this weekend.

Ben Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown / Julio Jones

Highest total, and neither team can play a lick of defense.  There should be fireworks in Pittsburgh tomorrow.  This is an expensive approach but both Ben comes in as my number two ranked QB, and both Julio and AB are top 35 overall.  If this game pops off as expected, both should eat a turkey dinner on National TV.  If you plan to game stack this thing, you have to include a contrarian piece somewhere.  Consider James Washington and / or Mahomed Sanu.  Vance McDonald is a great cash game play from this one as well and obviously, Juju is Juju.

Devante Adams and one of the Detroit WR’s

Lots of questions surround the health of Green Bay as I write this on Saturday.  If their offense looks healthy, this game could easily descend into an offensive onslaught as neither side plays great defense.  Adams will play and Rodgers will use him a lot here and Stafford has a good matchup against the Green Bay secondary, which has not been impressive to date.  Jones Jr. has a great history against the Packers but Golladay has really emerged as a legit top potential target in this offense.  Ranking them, I’d prefer Tate then Golladay. 

Doug Baldwin / Brandin Cooks

Earl Thomas is gone for the season, which means open season on Seattle’s porous pass defense.  I like Cooks tomorrow and he should be able to get behind the Seattle secondary when the Rams choose.  Two long TD’s wouldn’t surprise me here.  On the flip side, Seattle is going to have to throw the ball here and game script may lead to further passing as well.  Russ is worth a GPP flier, and Baldwin is his main man.  A game stack could include Russ, Baldwin, Cooks, Gurley, and Vannett, which leaves room for exposure to the other games as well.

Cam Newton / Christian McCaffery / Devin Funchess / Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard

I think the first two Panthers here need little introduction.  Cam is the top QB on my board tomorrow and both of his top weapons have a good chance of finding the end zone.  The only real worry here is the slow pace in which the Giants run their offense.  Funchess, with Olsen out, is the main cog in the passing game and Cam’s favorite target in the WR / TE core.  If you think the Giants can keep up here, two or three of their star offensive players make sense on the comeback.

TJ Yeldon / Jags Defense

Rain is expected in Kansas City today which is likely to have an impact on the passing offenses in this game.  KC is attempting to ascend into the upper echelons of AFC consideration while the Jags will look to continue their good start.  The Jags defense is BY FAR, the most talented unit that Mahomes will have faced to date.  He was fortunate to avoid turnovers on 3 occasions against Denver last weekend.  I don’t think he’ll be so lucky today and I think he’ll be under pressure for most of the day as well.  Yeldon will get the bulk of the carries and should have some good opportunities to find the endzone. 

Alternative Game Stack

Minnesota at Philadelphia – neither defense is what the public thinks at this point.  Both QB’s have high upside and a narrower group of targets.  Wentz will primarily use three guys and Cousins, with Cook out, will target Theilen and Diggs a bunch.

*Chris Tierney — @cstcst2*

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Chris Tierney goes by cstcst in the world of DFS.  He can be followed on twitter @cstcst2.

Another decent week for the column.  The chaos of last weekend was not a surprise to us.  The picks were only ok…Jarred Cook was tackled twice inside the ten-yard line, once at the inch line which kept me from labeling the column a success last week.

Historically, week four is far more predictive than week three over the past couple of seasons.  One interesting point of view this week are guys who were super popular last week, who are likely to be under-owned his week.  Stay the course.  Calvin Ridley looked phenomenal.  Will the Falcons make him the focal point moving forward?  He’ll be highly owned after that display.  Give me Julio Jones in 2018, just about every day of the week.  He has a massive game forthcoming and the Sunday matchup presents a good opportunity for him.  The same can be said for Eric Ebron, who laid an egg from a fantasy perspective last week, but enters this week in another great spot against the Texans, who are second worst thus far against the position.  At very low expected ownership, I love him in this spot.

Correlations that I like:

DeShaun Watson / DeAndre Hopkins / Eric Ebron

Watson lead the Texans on eight drives inside the NY Giants 30-yard line last week.  Two ended in turnovers and three in Field Goals.  Worries about the explosive ability of this offense are overstated.  Watson still threw for well over 300 yards and two scores, and clearly, could have been more scores.  We’re right back to the well here.  We touched on Ebron at the outset and like him here.

Drew Brees / Saquon Barkley / ODB or Shepard

This game could shoot out and if it does, all of these players will benefit.  Barkley is the key that makes the Giants offense go and Beckham is central to the passing game.  If you are of the opinion that Lattimore can handle ODB, Shepard will be the Gmen WR who has a big day.  Given that the Saints are on the road, I expect the Giants defense to take away one of the big two of the Saints here.  If that happens, the veteran QB will look to Ginn or Benjamin Watson.

Zeke Elliott / Cowboys Defense 

Zeke is garnering the largest % of his offenses touches in the NFL.  He had a good game last weekend but made a couple of mistakes at critical times.  I expect him to put a massive game tomorrow and find the zone 1-2 times.  Dallas’s defense is better than it played last weekend and has the benefit of being at home, against a Lions offense that can be mistake prone when they become one dimensional.

Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler / Chargers Defense / George Kittle

CJ Beathard’s history demonstrates that he loves short and intermediate passes to running backs and tight ends.  He and Kittle had good chemistry last season and I expect that to continue tomorrow.  With that being said, the Chargers are in a good spot to run away from the 49ers here and their defense will have a good shot and turnovers and pressures.  Gordon will dominate the RB opportunities at the beginning of this game but Ekeler could outpace his average opportunity if the Chargers grab a big lead.\

Two Pure GPP Plays

Antonio Callaway – Cleveland Browns – With Gordon gone and Baker now the QB, throwing the ball won’t present the same challenge that it did with Tyrod.  Callaway is a burner and is very affordable across all sites this weekend.  He has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and is worth a flier against a bad Raiders defense.

Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles – Wentz had an underwhelming debut last weekend on a rainy day at home against the Colts.  He is missing some notable weapons and travels on the road to face a Titans defense that has been stout against everyone they’ve faced to date.  If you’ll recall, Carson is a special special player, who carved everyone he faced last season.  At ownership levels that will not last, he is a good pivot away from some of higher owned QB’s on this slate, and we know that he loves to chuck it to Zach Ertz.

*Chris Tierney — @cstcst2*

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Chris Tierney goes by cstcst in the world of DFS.  He can be followed on twitter @cstcst2.

Rearview Mirror

It was a decent week 2 for the column as our ‘Pure GPP’ WR’s all had nice games as did Chris Thompson, who will continue to be a central weapon for Alex Smith in Washington. Drew Brees missed, a wide-open, Ben Watson for a touchdown or it would have been a great week for the column.

If you follow me on twitter (@cstcst2) you may have noticed a Friday tweet regarding some of the crazy outcomes that have sprung out of week three over the previous two NFL seasons. In week three, 2016, the Arizona Cardinals (when they were good) traveled to Buffalo to play the lowly Bills, and were run out of the building, 33-18. Palmer couldn’t stop turning the ball over in that one. That same week, some rookie named Carson Wentz sent the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers packing with a 34-3 defeat at Lincoln Financial.

Fast forward to 2017 and more funkiness.  The Packers barely escaped a home loss to the Bengals and the Pats narrowly defeated the Texans 36-33.  Finally, the previously mentioned Steel Curtain were defeated at Heinz by John Fox’s Chicago Bears.

This is not to say that utter craziness will ensue this Sunday, but things are rarely what they seem.  Is Patrick Mahomes the greatest QB to ever play the game?  The statistics he is piling up at the beginning of his career have never been seen.  Will it continue this weekend against what many have concluded to be a poor SF defense?  GPP is our purpose in this corner of the world.  For me, ‘Paydirt Pat’ is a GPP fade this weekend in a game where the combined pace of the teams through week two is not in the top tier.

Favorite Contrarian Game Stacks – outside of the obvious game stacks to be made in Atlanta and Kansas City….

Giants at Texans

So many weapons, all over the field, on both teams.  Will Fuller has been a top WR with Watson throwing him the ball and Hopkins is one of the best in the game.  Manning and the OL struggled for the Gmen last Sunday night, which plays into our hands here, as many saw that game.  ODB, Saquon and Evan Engram are all good plays in a game where they are likely to be playing from behind. 

Colts at Eagles

Two very good QB’s and two defenses with question marks.  The Eagles offense will likely run through Ertz, Clement, and Agholor with the Colts leaning on Hilton, Ebron and their two rookie running backs Wilkins and Hines.  The Eagles defense has been vulnerable to the pass early this season and that could continue here.  Wentz is the master of Pederson’s offense and the best play fake QB in the league.  His ball management will get some guys open for easy touchdowns against the Colts defense.  This is another game that could be very high scoring and could be GPP gold.

Pure GPP Plays 

Quarterback

Jimmy Garropolo – While he hasn’t lived up to the massive hype created by his quarterbacking at the end of 2017-2018, he has played pretty well thus far.  Big Ben did not play all that well last weekend but still was able to move the ball at will on this Chiefs secondary.  It sounds like the Niners will get Goodwin back and that balances out the passing attack, giving Jimmy G his deep threat.  Jimmy G has the goods to go on the road and win this game outright.

Running Back

Zeke Elliott – Many will pay down to the value on Sunday, and rightfully so in many cases.  This should leave very underowned, going on the road to face a Seattle defense that is not talented front we’ve grown accustomed to.  Zeke had 23 opportunities last Sunday and could potentially get more here.

Tevin Coleman – Again, many will be paying down to Murray and Clement leaving good opportunities to differentiate your lineups.  Coleman has a great matchup against what has been an average defense in the early season.  He played very well last weekend and has home run potential every time he touches the ball.

Deep GPP

Keep an eye towards the Jacksonville RB situation as it could open a significant role for Corey Grant.  Grant is a super quick playmaker who is only lacking in opportunity. 

Wendell Smallwood will get touches for Philly and could see his role expand during the game if he is playing well.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp – Still a central role in the Rams passing game and he should find holes in the Chargers coverage here.  He is a great ppr play this weekend.

Devin Funchess – Funchess is overdue to get into the endzone, but has nice volume numbers and is affordable for a number one receiver with a very good QB.

Kenny Stills – Tannehill has really spread the ball around thus far, but is playing very well.  The Raiders secondary is not I’d call good.  Stills has the goods to mirror his week one production this weekend.

Tight End

Jarred Cook – With many burned by him last weekend, he will be low owned.  With Cooper drawing shadow coverage from top Miami corner Xavien Howard, Cook should more opportunity.  He has a good chance of another good performance on Sunday.

Will Dissly – Russell Wilson has been targeting Dissly a ton through two weeks and I expect this to continue due to lack of protection, and the fact that Dissly has been making plays.  He continues to be cheap when considering his role.

*Chris Tierney — @cstcst2*

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Chris Tierney goes by cstcst in the world of DFS.  He can be followed on twitter @cstcst2.

Week one is in the books.  It was one of straight chalk in the DFS world, as Conner, Kamara, Thomas, Gronk, and Allen all came through with big weeks at high ownership.  If you followed the masses, it was a good start.  The NFL is rarely as straight forward as it was last weekend.  Keep that in mind as we move forward into week two and look at some GPP stacks to consider.

‘The Chalkie Talkie’ – Steelers vs. Chiefs

This game, rightfully so, has the highest total on the board for Sunday.  Neither defense is much to fear, and both teams are stacked with elite playmakers at every level of their offenses.  If you plan to play this game in GPP’s, be sure to mix and match with some of the players who are likely to be less owned than the Conner’s, AB’s and Tyfreak’s.  Less owned options include:

Vance McDonald – The last time we saw Vance in action, he was connecting with Big Ben to single handedly keep the Steelers in the divisional playoff game last January.  He is battling a foot injury so keep an eye on injury news, but he is a great receiving TE who is likely to go under owned.  If he is full tilt, he’s a steal on both sites at their posted prices.  In a week where many will play Jonnu Smith, in an effort to pay up at other positions, McDonald is a far superior play.

Kareem Hunt – Limited to just 16 carries and one target last week by Head Coach Andy Reid, we can safely say that Hunt was a disappointment in a game where the Chiefs had a big lead.  Enter game flow and matchups here, and Hunt looks like a terrific, potentially contrarian play on Sunday.   The Chiefs cannot afford to get into a track meet at Heinz Field; they simply don’t have the defense to match up here.  The Steelers run defense has not been sound since the loss of Ryan Shazier last season.  Vince Williams was sound last week against the Browns, but the Chiefs have a better offensive line.  Feeding Hunt and Kelce to move the chains, keeping Ben and AB on the sideline is the path to victory for Kansas City.  I expect Hunt’s opportunities to increase to 23-25 on Sunday.

Finally, Travis Kelce was only targeted on six of 27 passes last weekend.  That will not continue over the course of the season and this is a good chance to buy low on the most athletic tight end in the game.

Two alternative game stacks are evident after running numbers for Sunday.

Houston at Tennessee – This game has the makings of a shootout.  Houston, with Watson, has the ability to put up a ton of points every time they take the field.  Watson looked rusty against New England last week, but should get Will Fuller back here, which will allow him to stretch the Titans defense.  Hopkins is another great play here and Corey Davis was targeted 13 times last weekend.  Corey could be a household name in fantasy circles by the end of the season.  The only thing giving us some pause here is Mariota’s health.  The Titans have already said that they’ll play two quarterbacks, which is not ideal.  Keep an eye on news as to how the Titans plan to play it as Sunday approaches.

Detroit at San Francisco – This one is my personal favorite to potentially unseat Pittsburgh KC as the highest scoring game of the weekend.  The Lions were a complete and total mess on Monday night in New York and the whole world saw it.  Matt Stafford is an experienced quarterback who will quickly forget what transpired last week and this game presents an opportunity for their passing offense in a big way.  The 49ers defensive backfield can be attacked.  Conversely, Jimmy G has also has a great matchup and will look to get Kittle (my number 1 ranked TE this week) and Garcon involved early and often.  Pettis is another interesting contrarian cheap play at WR as he had five targets after Goodwin left last week’s game and nearly had a second TD catch.  Stack this game up.

Pure GPP plays

Wide Receiver

Quincy Enunwa, NY Jets – 10 targets last week, and with no valid threat at TE, should continue to be Darnold’s safety blanket.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit – Role increased last week, talent has always been there for this young WR.

Mike Williams, LAC – Anyone who follows the college game remembers Williams from his days at Clemson.  He had a couple of drops last-weekend but he is a big dynamic athlete who, with good health, will be a top receiver down the road.

Running Back

Chris Thompson, WSH – Thompson returned from injury and picked up right where he left off with seven targets from Alex Smith and five carries.  The Cardinals presented no fight to the Redskins so the game flow worked against him.  Provided the Colts keep this close, Thompson could be in for a big game.

Jalen Richard, OAK – So much attention was paid to the arrival of Doug Martin in Oakland.  Richard stole the show and the usage in the Raiders 33-13 loss to the Rams on Monday night.  The jitter bug back was targeted 11 times and had five carries.  They travel to Denver this weekend and Denver struggles with TE’s and receiving backs.  Game flow could aid Richard again this week.

Tight End

Ben Watson, NO – Watson was only targeted four times last weekend with Kamara and Thomas getting the majority of targets from Drew Brees.  The Browns have an athletic defensive backfield and have the goods to slow down Kamara and Thomas to an extent.  With all of that being said, the Browns have been brutal against the Tight End for the last three seasons.  Watson and Brees have made big plays together in the recent past and a huge game from Watson falls squarely in the range of outcomes on Sunday.