MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy – Page 4 – Lineup Lab

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Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy

by Mike Barner on February 2, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Advanced stats are important in any sport, but they have especially changed the way we look at baseball. One important advanced stat to consider when drafting your fantasy baseball squad is batting average on balls in play, also known a BABIP.

As defined by BaseballReference.com, BABIP, “measures what happens when the player puts the ball in play on the field.” The formula to calculate BABIP is (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF).

In 2017, the league average batting average was .255. Historically, the league average BABIP is usually right around .300. Now, that doesn’t mean just because a hitter has a BABIP above or below .300 that they are in line for a correction in 2018. You want to compare their BABIP more with their career marks and also consider their skill sets. For example, a fast runner who hits a lot of ground balls could have a high BABIP simply because they are able to leg out base hits that other runners with normal speed would not be able to.

It is also important to consider the type of contact that a player is making, whether they hit a lot of fly balls or line drives. A player who hits more hard line drives can have a high BABIP because the fielders could have a more difficult time reaching the ball to record an out. A player who hits a lot of weak fly balls is going to have a lower BABIP because they aren’t leaving themselves with a great opportunity to reach base.

All of that being said, let’s take a look at a few players who had an abnormally high or low BABIP last season and discuss how to project their batting averages for this season.

Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Garcia not only hit a career-high .330 last season, but it left him with the third-highest batting averaging in the league behind Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. That’s some pretty impressive company. However, Garcia is a career .277 hitter, which is an immediate red flag.

A closer look at Garcia’s numbers shows he had a .392 BABIP last year, which was the highest in baseball. That screams candidate for regression, especially when you consider his career BABIP is just .340. Garcia even struck out less last year with a 19.8% strikeout percentage, which is almost three percent lower than his career average. His line drive percentage was 24%, which was spot on with his career mark.

He is still a talented young player who could have a valuable fantasy season, but make sure you aren’t drafting him with the expectation that he will hit for that high of an average again this year.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Zimmerman has played in over 1,500 career games, which gives us an example sample size to work off of. After dealing with injuries the last few seasons, Zimmerman was able to largely stay healthy in 2017 and played in 144 games. He finished with a career-high 36 home runs and recorded at least 100 RBI for the third time in his career. He had a sparkling .303 batting average, which was especially high considering he hasn’t batted above .280 since 2012.

However, a lot of his success can be attributed to his performance in the first half of the season when he batted .345. It’s no coincidence that he had an extremely high BABIP of .364 during that same time frame. His career BABIP is .311, so it made much more sense that he had a BABIP of .306 during the second half of the season. While the decline in BABIP, Zimmerman’s batting average was just .269 in the second half.

Health is always a major concern if you are drafting Zimmerman, but remember that his excessively high BABIP in the first half led to an inflated batting average for the season overall.

Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Cozart is the only player on this list to change teams this winter as he signed with the Angeles after playing his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds. Cozart had the best season of his career in 2017, hitting .297 with 24 home runs, 63 RBI and 80 runs scored. He was able to cash that in for a three-year, $38 million contract. With how slow the market has moved this winter, that was a significant deal.

Another alarm should go off with Cozart though as he is only a career .254 hitter. He did most of his damage in the first half, batting .316 with a .358 BABIP. To put that into perspective, his career BABIP is only .280. He experienced a significant regression in the second half, batting just .272 with a .252 BABIP.

Cozart did drastically improve his walk percentage to 12.2% last season, but his 26% line drive percentage was actually two percent lower than both of the previous two seasons. Buyer beware if you are drafting him based on his batting average last season.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Betts was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball heading into last year after hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals in 2016. Even though the Red Sox offense as a whole took a step backward in 2017, Betts still had great counting stats with 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 101 runs scored and 26 stolen bases.

Betts couldn’t completely deliver on his lofty fantasy expectations though because he batted only .264 for the season. His strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. It was low throughout the season, showing very little improvement in the second half.

Betts has an extremely high upside in fantasy and could have just had one of those “unlucky” seasons in terms of his BABIP considering his career numbers. Expect improvement in the batting average department from him this year.

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Machado is also one of the most coveted offense players in fantasy. Not only has he developed into a premier power hitter, but he had hit at least .278 in four straight seasons leading into 2017. Although he stole 20 bases in 2015, he has only stolen nine total bases in two seasons since.

Machado saw a significant decline in his batting average in 2017, finishing the season hitting just .259. Much of that can be attributed to a horrid first half where he batted just .230 in large part due to his .230 BABIP. He has a career .301 BABIP, so it’s no surprise that he improved to a .290 BABIP in the second half of the season. He batted .290 over that same stretch.

Machado will be dealing with a position change this year, moving from third base to his natural position at shortstop. However, one constant that should return this year with a normal BABIP is his high batting average.

Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: BABIP Trends

Odor has become one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in baseball, slugging at least 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He does not do a great job getting on base though with only a 4.2% walk percentage. He has logged 1,212 at-bats in the last two seasons but has only walked 51 times. His swinging strikes percentage has increased in each season of his career, topping out at 20.8% in 2017.

While he doesn’t walk much, Odor had a batting average of at least .259 in each of his first three seasons. He struggled mightily in that department last year, batting just .204. Much of that can be attributed to his .224 BABIP, which was almost 60 points lower than any previous season of his career. His inability to get on base limits his fantasy value, but it’s highly unlikely that he will hit just over .200 again this season.

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy

by Mike Barner on January 25, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Remaining MLB Free Agents

The MLB offseason is often referred to as the “Hot Stove” due to all of the trades and signings that occur in the winter months. However, the market has developed extremely slowly this year, leaving several impact players still left unsigned. As we continue our fantasy baseball season preview series, we’ll take a look at some big names who are available and the potential impact they could have this season.

J.D. Martinez, OF

Martinez had his breakout campaign with the Tigers when he batted .282 with 38 home runs, 102 RBI and 93 runs scored in 2015. The Tigers decided to start the rebuilding process last year, shipping Martinez to the Diamondbacks. He went on to have a scorching hot finish, hitting .302 with 29 home runs, 65 RBI and 47 runs scored in only 62 games with his new team.

Martinez is still on the market and should command a hefty contract. He’s not a great defender, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up in the American League where he can also spend some time at DH, especially towards the end of his contract. He’s only played more than 123 games once in his career, so it might be tough for him to hold up as an everyday outfielder as he gets older.

No matter where Martinez signs, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to perform at the rate he did with the Diamondbacks. He hit a home run ever 8.0 at-bats with Arizona, which is far more frequent than his career average of once every 18.6 at-bats. Even during his stellar 2015 season, he only hit a home run once every 15.7 at-bats. He does hit for a high average, so he doesn’t need to hit over 40 home runs to still be an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Expect him to finish this season around the top-10 fantasy outfielders.

Yu Darvish, SP

Darvish is the big fish still left in the sea when it comes to starting pitchers with rumored interested suitors being the Yankees, Twins, Brewers, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers. Although he struggled mightily in the World Series, his strong finish with the Dodgers was a big part of why they made it that far.

The good news from a fantasy perspective is that Darvish pitched 186.2 innings during the regular season. He missed the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched only 100.1 innings in 2016. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher when healthy, posting an 11.0 K/9 for his career. No matter where he signs, Darvish should still provide strong value in most categories. However, if you play in a league that counts wins, you’d like to see him sign with a team that has a potent offense and a strong bullpen. If he ultimately ends up with the Cubs, Dodgers or Yankees, he could surpass his previous career-high of 16 wins that he set back in 2012.

Eric Hosmer, 1B

The first base market has been slow to develop with many of baseball’s better teams already set at the position. Hosmer has had limited suitors as a result, with the two primary teams reportedly interested being the Royals and the Padres.

Hosmer is not your traditional masher at first base. He’s never hit more than 25 home runs in a season and has reached at least 100 RBI only one time during his career. The good news is he set career-highs last year in batting average (.318) and OBP (.385). He only had a strikeout percentage of 15.5% as well, marking the fourth time in his career he has finished under 16%.

The bad news with Hosmer is that he’s been wildly inconsistent. For example, his batting averages the last four seasons have been .270, .297, .266 and .318, respectively. Those are some big swings when you consider you aren’t drafting him for his ability to hit home runs. With so many other elite options at first base, expect Hosmer to rank someone between 10 and 15 at the position when the season is all said and done.

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Moustakas if a former first-round pick who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Royals. He had largely not lived up to the hype heading into the 2017 season, making only one All-Star team during his career. The one time he received that honor was in 2015 when he finished the season batting .284 with 22 home runs, 82 RBI, and 73 runs scored. Those are solid numbers, but nothing to write home about.

He finally had his breakout season in 2017, hitting a franchise-record 38 home runs. The problem was the Royals were one of the worst offensive teams in the league, resulting in 27 of his home runs being solo shots. He finished with just 85 RBI and 75 runs scored.

Considering he hit so many home runs, it’s impressive that he only had a 15.7% strikeout percentage. It’s not out of the ordinary for Moustakas though as he has a 15.5% strikeout percentage for his career. He did appear to take a more aggressive approach at the plate though, seeing only 3.78 pitchers per plate appearance, the second fewest of his career. Also, he struck out swinging on 96.8% of his strikeouts last year, by far the highest percentage of his career.

There hasn’t been a lot of buzz surrounding Moustakas this winter, but he could actually see an increase in value if he leaves the Royals. Of his 38 home runs last year, 24 of them came on the road. If he moves to a team with a more hitter-friendly ballpark, he could approach 30 home runs again this season. Landing on a potent offensive team like the Yankees would be ideal. Even if he finds the perfect fit, his ceiling isn’t much higher than that of a top 12-to-15 third baseman in fantasy baseball.

Lorenzo Cain, OF

Cain certainly wasn’t the cause of the Royals anemic offense last year, batting .300 with a career-high .363 OBP. It marked the third time in the last four seasons that he finished with a batting average of at least .300. Not only did he have a career-low 15.5% strikeout percentage, but he also recorded a career-high 8.4% walk percentage.

Cain can provide value with his speed, stealing at least 26 bases in three of the last four years. While he did have 26 steals last year, it’s important to note that those came in a career-high 155 games played. In 2014 and 2015 when he finished with 28 steals each season, he played in 133 and 140 games, respectively. Cain also doesn’t provide much in the way of home runs, hitting no more than 16 home runs in any season of his career.

Like many of the big name free agents, the market for Cain has been slow to develop. Regardless of where he signs, he really doesn’t have a high upside in any category outside of batting average. As a result, his ceiling is likely finishing just inside the top-20 outfielders in fantasy, with his floor being in the 25-30 range as long as he stays healthy.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

MLB Fantasy Baseball Strategy

by Mike Barner on January 22, 20180 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer and Off-Season Signings

It might hard to believe it if you live in the NorthEast, but baseball season is just around the corner. With only about a month left before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the time is now to start preparing for your fantasy baseball draft. In the first of our season preview series, we’ll take a look at some familiar players who have joined new teams and discuss the impact it will have on their fantasy value.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

The Yankees rebuild certainly didn’t take long. After trading away several veterans in the middle of the 2016 season, the Yankees progressed faster than expected in 2017, losing in the American League Championship Series to the Houston Astros. One of the big reasons for their success was the strength of their offense, which finished second in runs scored and first in home runs in all of baseball.

So how did they improve their team for this year? By bringing in another power hitter of course. The Yankees took advantage of the Marlins need to slash payroll, trading for the reigning NL MVP in Stanton with Starlin Castro being the only player of significance to the major league roster that they gave up.

Entering the 2017 season, Stanton had played 123 games or less in four of the previous five seasons. He managed to stay healthy though, missing only three games all year. He cashed in the added at-bats, setting career-highs in home runs (59), RBI (132) and runs scored (123). Unlike many of the games elite home run hitters, he still managed to hit .281 and finished with a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage.

Stanton will now team up with Aaron Judge to form one of the elite power-hitting combinations in the league. It will be hard for Stanton to play 159 games again this year, but the good news is that he will get some time at designated hitter, which should help keep him fresh. He’s going to be part of a potent overall lineup and should again finish with excellent counting stats. From a batting average perspective, he might not experience significant regression either as his .288 BABIP was actually the lowest of his career. Expect him to have another valuable campaign and be a borderline first-round pick in fantasy.

Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners

Another member of the Marlins fire sale was Gordon, who was shipped to the Mariners and will now play center field. Gordon led the majors with 60 stolen bases last year, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he has stolen at least 58 bases. The only time he didn’t was when he was limited to 79 games in 2016 due to a suspension, finishing with 30 steals.

While most known for his ability to steal bases, Gordon’s fantasy value is much more than just that one category. He hit at least .308 in two of the last three seasons and scored 114 runs last year. He only has a 15.1% strikeout percentage for his career, which allows him to leg out some extra hits due to his speed.

Luckily for this season, he will still be eligible at second base and will eventually get you the added value of dual-position eligibility. He will be part of a powerful lineup that features Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager hitting behind him, so he should have plenty of opportunities to score runs again this year. Even without much power, he should still finish as one of the more valuable second base eligible players in fantasy, especially when you consider the scarcity of stolen bases.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

The Giants desperately needed to find offense this winter, especially in their outfield. They decided to swing a deal with the Pirates for McCutchen, providing a significant boost to their lineup. While his stats don’t jump off the page, McCutchen has hit at least 21 home runs and recorded at least 79 RBI in each of the last seven seasons. He also does an excellent job of getting on base, posting an OBP of at least .363 in all but one season during his career.

While McCutchen can still provide value, it’s important to note that he doesn’t really excel in any one category. He used to provide value on the base paths, stealing at least 20 bases in each of the first five seasons of his career. However, he has stolen 11 bases or less in each of the last three seasons. He batted a respectable .279 last year, but that’s not going to be a difference maker in your league. He’s still someone to consider on draft day, but make sure you are drafting him based on his current production, not his high-profile name. If you are drafting based on the latter, you will likely overpay for him on draft day.

Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants

The Giants were serious about making major additions to their lineup, also acquiring Longoria from the Rays. Longoria had spent his entire 10-year career with the Rays, becoming the face of the franchise. He’s had some excellent run-producing seasons, hitting at least 30 home runs four times and driving in at least 100 runs five times in his career. He’s also been extremely reliable, playing at least 160 games in each of the last four years.

Longoria is still a fine player, but he’s not nearly as valuable in fantasy as he once was. Besides an outlier season where he hit 36 home runs in 2016, he has hit 22 home runs or less in three of the last four seasons. He doesn’t do a great job of getting on base either, posting an OBP of .328 or lower in each of the last four years. Third base is a deep position in fantasy, which could leave Longoria outside the top-15 at the position.

Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies were the beneficiaries of one of the better surprises at closer last year, getting 41 saves from Greg Holland. The majority of Holland’s success came over the first half of the season when he recorded 28 of his saves and a sparkling 1.62 ERA. The second half was much more of a struggle, finishing with a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. The Rockies decided not to bring him back for 2018, instead signing Davis to a hefty three-year contract.

Davis had 32 saves for the Cubs last year and a 2.30 ERA, which was actually the first time he finished with an ERA above 2.00 since 2013. He also posted a 12.1 K/9, which was the second highest of his career. When a pitcher moves to Coors Field, there is always a concern that their stats could regress pitching in such a hitter-friendly environment. Davis did give up six home runs last year, which were three more than the previous three seasons combined. However, his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.70, which is very close to his career ratio of 0.67.

The big increase was in his home run to flyball percentage, which was 9.1%. That’s significantly up from his career mark of 6.5%. While I don’t think he’ll come close to replicating the excellent three-year stretch he had with the Royals prior to last season, he should still finish the season as a top-10 closer.

Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies

The rebuilding Phillies added a significant bat to their lineup, signing Santana to a three-year contract early on in free agency. He’ll take over as their everyday first baseman after spending the first eight years of his career with Cleveland.

Santana had spectacular power season in 2016, hitting 34 home runs and slugging .498. Other than that season, he’s never hit more than 27 home runs or slugged above .457 in any of his full seasons in the majors. He hasn’t been a significant run producer either, recording 87 RBI or less in each season of his career.

The positives for Santana is that he gets on base, posting an OBP of at least .363 in five of the last six years. He’s also done a nice job cutting down on his strikeouts, with his strikeout percentage decreasing in each of the last three seasons. However, based on his low batting average and limited ceiling, he’s a borderline top-20 first baseman.

Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals

Ozuna established himself as one of the top outfielders in the league last year, finishing the season batting .312 with 37 home runs, 124 RBI, and 93 runs scored. He showed an improved eye at the plate, setting a career best with a 9.4% walk percentage, which was more than two percent higher than any of his previous four seasons.

Like Stanton and Gordon, he too was a part of the fire sale in Miami and will now roam the outfield for the Cardinals. His power will be a welcomed addition as the Cardinals finished in the bottom half of the league in home runs last season.

The Marlins were certainly a flawed team, but they had a potent lineup with Ozuna, Stanton, Gordon, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour. The Cardinals have some talented hitters, but their lineup doesn’t project to be as deep as the Marlins was last year. Ozuna will still likely be a top 15-to-20 outfielder, but he could experience some regression in counting stats.

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

The defending World Seris champs aren’t resting on their laurels this winter, making a big trade with the Pirates to add Cole to their starting rotation. The Astros already have one of the best lineups in baseball, but now boast a solid starting trio of Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, and Cole.

Cole’s best season with the Pirates came in 2015 when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up a whopping 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA.

There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole should get his ERA back down under 4.00. He’s a reliable source for strikeouts and should have plenty of chances to rack up wins on a great team, making him a top-25 starting pitcher with upside.