Contrarian DFS Plays for NFL GPP Contests – Week 3 – 9/22

*Chris Tierney — @cstcst2*

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Chris Tierney goes by cstcst in the world of DFS.  He can be followed on twitter @cstcst2.

Rearview Mirror

It was a decent week 2 for the column as our ‘Pure GPP’ WR’s all had nice games as did Chris Thompson, who will continue to be a central weapon for Alex Smith in Washington. Drew Brees missed, a wide-open, Ben Watson for a touchdown or it would have been a great week for the column.

If you follow me on twitter (@cstcst2) you may have noticed a Friday tweet regarding some of the crazy outcomes that have sprung out of week three over the previous two NFL seasons. In week three, 2016, the Arizona Cardinals (when they were good) traveled to Buffalo to play the lowly Bills, and were run out of the building, 33-18. Palmer couldn’t stop turning the ball over in that one. That same week, some rookie named Carson Wentz sent the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers packing with a 34-3 defeat at Lincoln Financial.

Fast forward to 2017 and more funkiness.  The Packers barely escaped a home loss to the Bengals and the Pats narrowly defeated the Texans 36-33.  Finally, the previously mentioned Steel Curtain were defeated at Heinz by John Fox’s Chicago Bears.

This is not to say that utter craziness will ensue this Sunday, but things are rarely what they seem.  Is Patrick Mahomes the greatest QB to ever play the game?  The statistics he is piling up at the beginning of his career have never been seen.  Will it continue this weekend against what many have concluded to be a poor SF defense?  GPP is our purpose in this corner of the world.  For me, ‘Paydirt Pat’ is a GPP fade this weekend in a game where the combined pace of the teams through week two is not in the top tier.

Favorite Contrarian Game Stacks – outside of the obvious game stacks to be made in Atlanta and Kansas City….

Giants at Texans

So many weapons, all over the field, on both teams.  Will Fuller has been a top WR with Watson throwing him the ball and Hopkins is one of the best in the game.  Manning and the OL struggled for the Gmen last Sunday night, which plays into our hands here, as many saw that game.  ODB, Saquon and Evan Engram are all good plays in a game where they are likely to be playing from behind. 

Colts at Eagles

Two very good QB’s and two defenses with question marks.  The Eagles offense will likely run through Ertz, Clement, and Agholor with the Colts leaning on Hilton, Ebron and their two rookie running backs Wilkins and Hines.  The Eagles defense has been vulnerable to the pass early this season and that could continue here.  Wentz is the master of Pederson’s offense and the best play fake QB in the league.  His ball management will get some guys open for easy touchdowns against the Colts defense.  This is another game that could be very high scoring and could be GPP gold.

Pure GPP Plays 

Quarterback

Jimmy Garropolo – While he hasn’t lived up to the massive hype created by his quarterbacking at the end of 2017-2018, he has played pretty well thus far.  Big Ben did not play all that well last weekend but still was able to move the ball at will on this Chiefs secondary.  It sounds like the Niners will get Goodwin back and that balances out the passing attack, giving Jimmy G his deep threat.  Jimmy G has the goods to go on the road and win this game outright.

Running Back

Zeke Elliott – Many will pay down to the value on Sunday, and rightfully so in many cases.  This should leave very underowned, going on the road to face a Seattle defense that is not talented front we’ve grown accustomed to.  Zeke had 23 opportunities last Sunday and could potentially get more here.

Tevin Coleman – Again, many will be paying down to Murray and Clement leaving good opportunities to differentiate your lineups.  Coleman has a great matchup against what has been an average defense in the early season.  He played very well last weekend and has home run potential every time he touches the ball.

Deep GPP

Keep an eye towards the Jacksonville RB situation as it could open a significant role for Corey Grant.  Grant is a super quick playmaker who is only lacking in opportunity. 

Wendell Smallwood will get touches for Philly and could see his role expand during the game if he is playing well.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp – Still a central role in the Rams passing game and he should find holes in the Chargers coverage here.  He is a great ppr play this weekend.

Devin Funchess – Funchess is overdue to get into the endzone, but has nice volume numbers and is affordable for a number one receiver with a very good QB.

Kenny Stills – Tannehill has really spread the ball around thus far, but is playing very well.  The Raiders secondary is not I’d call good.  Stills has the goods to mirror his week one production this weekend.

Tight End

Jarred Cook – With many burned by him last weekend, he will be low owned.  With Cooper drawing shadow coverage from top Miami corner Xavien Howard, Cook should more opportunity.  He has a good chance of another good performance on Sunday.

Will Dissly – Russell Wilson has been targeting Dissly a ton through two weeks and I expect this to continue due to lack of protection, and the fact that Dissly has been making plays.  He continues to be cheap when considering his role.