Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 8/12/2016
Chris Durell
Welcome back to another TGIF edition of daily fantasy baseball. Friday gives us one game in the afternoon(STL vs. CHC) leaving 14 games for the main slate that starts at 7:00 PM et. For the purpose of the following picks we will be concentrating on the main slate tonight. We won’t be short on pitching options tonight as many teams are running their aces with a few in great spots to help us score big in DFS. Let’s dig in.
PITCHERS
Stephen Strasburg FD 11600 DK 12400
Opponent – ATL (Foltynewicz) Park – @WSH
FD – 39.18 DK – 25.37
The top pitcher on the slate is none other than Mr. Strasburg tonight. The fact that he is coming off his second loss of the season and second in his last four starts doesn’t concern me at all considering he is one of the top pitchers in the league. He has been absolutely elite this year with a 15-2 record, .280 ERA, and 11.00 K/9 rate. Throw in the fact he is facing the Braves who rank dead last vs. right handed pitching and you have a very high upside play for any format.
Francisco Liriano FD 7700 DK 6600
Opponent – HOU (Musgrove) Park – @TOR
FD – 30.38 DK – 19.93
One of the top value plays of the night at the pitching position is Francisco Liriano. He makes an excellent second pitcher option on DraftKings or contrarian GPP play on FanDuel. It will be hard to ignore the price as it seems the sites are begging us to play him. I get it. It’s been an up and down season and he is pitching to a 4.48 xFIP but he is now on a new team with a renewed sense of value as the Jays are thick in the playoff race. If he can control the free passes he comes with elite strikeout upside(9.10 K/9) and faces the Astros who rank 22nd in wOBA vs. left handed pitching with a high 23% K rate.
STACKS
Texas Rangers vs. Anibal Sanchez (Tigers)
Park – Globelife Park in Arlington
The Rangers are big home favorites(-190) in a matchup with the second highest total on the slate. They currently sit with a comfortable 6.5 game lead in the American League West and have won six of their last 10 games. They rank both in the Top 10 vs. right handed pitching for the season and Top 10 among all team over the past 7 days. The get a matchup vs. Anibal Sanchez who is coming off back to back starts allowing just one earned run but I am not buying the trend. First of all, he faced the Mets and White Sox who sit in the bottom third of the league in hitting. Second, I will take the larger sample size over the small one as Sanchez has been less than impressive this season with a 4.65 xFIP, high 3.64 BB/9 rate and 14% HR/FB rate. Not to mention Beltre, Desmond, Beltran and Chirinios all have career wOBA’s over .300 against him. All the Rangers tonight!
Boston red Sox vs. Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks)
Park – Fenway Park
The chalk stack of the day is the Boston Red Sox. They currently sit as -235 home favorites in one of the best hitters parks in the majors. They are projected for close to six runs today in a matchup vs. Patrick Corbin which makes sense as they lead the majors in overall runs scored(609) and rank 3rd in wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. Over his last five starts, Corbin has been awful allowing 38 hits and 20 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. That equals a 7.20 ERA and 4.71 xFIP. He has K upside but walks way too many batters(3.93 BB/9) and gives up a ton of long balls with a 17.4% HR/FB rate. The top stacking options are going to be Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez(if back in lineup) and even David Ortiz who has hit left handed pitching quite well this season.