Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 8/5/2016

Chris Durell

Welcome back to another Friday edition of daily fantasy baseball advice. Tonight we have all 15 games coming on the main slate that starts at 7:00 pm et. There are some big favorites tonight starting with the Cardinals(-220) at home to the Braves and the Cubs(-215) on the road in Oakland. There aren’t many high end options at the pitching position tonight but a ton of mid to low tier salary relief options. You know what that means? It will be a great night to load up on the bats! Let’s take a look at a few pitching options and stacks for tonight’s action.

PITCHERS

Justin Verlander FD 9900 DK 13600
Opponent – NYM (Thor) Park – @DET
FD – 35.77 DK – 19.04

Verlander looks great, but the W is not guaranteed today. Verlander’s pricing looks astonishingly higher on DK than Fanduel which is interesting in itself. And on Fanduel we feel he would be a great play based on his numbers alone. He is higher than Lester in my book in terms of expected DFS points, across all pitchers. With a ~1 whip and more hitters fanned than Innings Pitched (147), he just looks great. But the matchup with Syndergaard on the other side make this a much smaller play. We will only have a few exposed lineups. The W is too important!

Jameson Taillon FD 7400 DK 7800
Opponent – CIN (DeSclafani) Park – @PIT
FD – 30.73 DK – 20.26

In his rookie season, Taillon has continually gotten better; he’s gone six innings in four straight starts and limited opponents to two earned runs or less in three of those starts. The K rate is average (7.24 K/9) but should continue to rise. But the most impressive part is that he is walking less than 1 batter per nine. He gets a favorable matchup to build on those numbers as the Reds rank 23rd in wOBA(.305) with 21.7% K rate vs. right handed pitching and those take a hit now that Jay Bruce has been shipped out of town. Taillon is good non-populist play in any format tonight.

Blake Snell FD 7900 DK 8700
Opponent – MIN (Santana) Park – @TB
FD – 33.28 DK – 21.84

Blake Snell makes an intriguing option in a home matchup vs. the Twins. The Rays come in as -130 home favorites in the lowest projected total(7.5) of the slate. The Twins have been a tough team to nail down as they have hit well since the first couple months of the season and now rank in the top half of the league in wOBA vs. left handed and right handed pitching. Some of the upside comes with their low 3.5 projected run line and 21%+ strikeout rate. Snell has been very impressive lately, despite the high walk rate(3.75 BB/9), limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in four straight starts with a 3.07 xFIP and 10.88 K/9 rate. He is definitely worth taking a shot with at his current price range on both sites.

STACKS

Chicago Cubs vs. Dillon Overton (Athletics)
Park – Oakland Coliseum

First of all, I don’t like the park as the Oakland Coliseum has surrendered the 2nd least home runs and 5th least total runs in the league this season. This recommendation is a scenario where the matchup is just too good despite the park factor. To compensate, we are hopeful that the forecasted 12mph wind towards right center comes to fruition. But even if not, the Cubs are the 4th highest scoring team(542 runs) in the league and get a great opportunity to build on those numbers against Dillon Overton. In his first four starts in the majors he has surrendered 34 hits and 19 earned runs in just 18.1 innings pitched with nine home runs. The awful ERA of 9.33 is backed up by a just as awful xFIP of 6.72. If he continues to give up fly balls at nearly an 80% rate he is going to get punished by the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras and even Javier Baez. We will absolutely be stacking CHC in the mlb optimizer tonight.

Miami Marlins vs. Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies)
Park – Coors Field

If stacking is your thing you better not try and get cute and fade the Coors game tonight. The Marlins are in town and the matchup bolsters the biggest run total(11.5) of the slate by a long shot. They have two bats in the middle of the order in Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna who are about the best in the business at rocking lefties. Over the last two years they have a 1.053 and 1.001 OPS respectively in that split. Both teams make great stacking options but you can get the Marlins a bit cheaper with very similar upside.

If we squeeze in any sneaky stacks, we will be sure to post our iterations here!