Daily Fantasy Football Wildcard Weekend – 01/04/17

Chris Durell

Full slate fantasy football has come to an end, my friends. I know, it’s a sad week but at least we still have Daily Fantasy for “at least” three more weeks. I say “at least” because DraftKings will most likely have another Pro Bowl/Super Bowl slate but you won’t find me anywhere near that nonsense.

The Wildcard round of the playoffs begins this Saturday with two games followed by two more on Sunday. In this article, I am going to break down each matchup using the Player Lab and give my initial thoughts on the top plays from each of the four games. I will then have my regular stacks article for you on Friday which will cover my favorite QB/WR combinations for tournaments. Let’s get started.

Playoff teams with BYE’s:

New England Patriots (AFC #1 seed)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #2 seed)
Dallas Cowboys (NFC #1 seed)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #2 seed)

AFC Wildcard Game #1

Oakland Raiders (12-4) vs. Houston Texans (9-7)
Vegas Favorite – HOU(-35)
Over/Under – 36.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
OAK – 4th in Passing(253.2 Yards/Game), 15th in Rushing(120.1 Yards/Game)
HOU – 30th in Passing(198.5 Yards/Game), 27th in Rushing(116.2 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
OAK – 25th vs. the Pass(257.5 Yards/Game), 18th vs. the Rush(117.6 Yards/Game)
HOU – 5th vs. the Pass(201.6 Yards/Game), 17th vs. the Rush(99.7 Yards/Game)

We start Wildcard weekend with a less than intriguing fantasy matchup. The Raiders lost their star QB Derek Carr to a broken leg and ended up losing the division to the Chiefs in Week 17 and now have to travel to Houston. Solely looking at the stats the Texans are the worst team in the playoffs, but they did manage to win their division and now get a playoff home game vs. a rookie quarterback making his first start.

The game has a very low 36.5 point total due to the fact the Raiders will be starting a rookie quarterback in *Connor Cook** who will be making his first career start. He looked alright in relief last week completing 14 of his 21 passes for 171 yards with a TD and an INT, but the playoffs are a completely different beast. I would avoid him altogether going up against one of the best pass defenses in the league.

On the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler will be making his return as the Texans starter after being dethroned by Tom Savage a few weeks back. In a projected low scoring game I don’t expect Osweiler to attempt much more than 30 passes, especially considering Lamar Miller will be making his return to the lineup and should see 15+ touches easily this week.

I won’t fully fade this game for fantasy as I feel both running backs (Latavius Murray & Lamar Miller) could provide some value in a grinding style of game. It will most likely be the defenses that will decide who goes on to the Divisional Round next week making both of them excellent targets for DFS. For tournament play, I love the Raiders defense as they rank 2nd in takeaways (30) this season while the Texans rank 19th in giveaways (24).

Game Prediction – HOU 20 OAK 17

NFC Wildcard Game #1

Detroit Lions (9-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks (10-5)
Vegas Favorite – SEA(-8)
Over/Under – 43

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
DET – 13th in Passing(256.9 Yards/Game), 25th in Rushing(81.9 Yards/Game)
SEA – 16th in Passing(257.8 Yards/Game), 23rd in Rushing(99.4 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
DET – 32nd vs. the Pass(248.4 Yards/Game), 23rd vs. the Rush(106.3 Yards/Game)
SEA – 13th vs. the Pass(225.8 Yards/Game), 2nd vs. the Rush(92.9 Yards/Game)

Next up on Saturday we have the first NFC Wildcard match that has the Detroit Lions traveling to Seattle to face the Seahawks in the hostel environment that is CenturyLink Field. The Lions snuck into the playoffs by means of a Redskins loss on Sunday afternoon and it was a good thing as the Packers walked all over the Lions on Sunday night to take the NFC North title. For the Seahawks, it was a season with ups and downs and it stops and starts with their home-road splits. They struggled to a 3-4-1 record on the road while dominating at home with a 7-1 record, allowing opponents just an average of 16 points per game.

For fantasy, I am looking mostly at the Seahawks three-headed passing attack of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. I was quite happy to see the Seahawks disappoint offensively last weekend in San Francisco as it should help limit the ownership on the full four-game slate. With RB Thomas Rawls averaging under two yards per carry over his last three games, I think it opens up enough volume in the passing game where Wilson and Baldwin (at minimum) should be considered in cash games.

From the Lions side of things, I am only looking at Golden Tate and Eric Ebron who should be pretty busy in the slow dink and dunk style the Lions love to play. Tate should be in for double-digit targets once again and has seen that total in four of his last five games. I will be avoiding Matthew Stafford as the matchup is poor and he is still dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand. This also affects the upside of Marvin Jones Jr. who is the Lions downfield threat and hasn’t shown us anything really since early in the season.

Game Prediction – SEA 23 DET 17

AFCWildcard Game #2

Miami Dolphins (10-6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Vegas Favorite – PIT (-10)
Over/Under – 46.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
MIA – 17th in Passing(218.8 Yards/Game), 16th in Rushing(114.0 Yards/Game)
PIT – 8th in Passing(262.6 Yards/Game), 8th in Rushing(110.0 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
MIA – 14th vs. the Pass(242.2 Yards/Game), 22nd vs. the Rush(140.4 Yards/Game)
PIT – 12th vs. the Pass(242.6 Yards/Game), 11th vs. the Rush(100.0 Yards/Game)

To kick off the Sunday playoff action we get the Miami Dolphins traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The Dolphins got in by way of the second wildcard with a 10-6 record while the Steelers won the AFC North giving them home field advantage in this matchup. The Dolphins were just a .500 team on the road (4-4) this year while the Steelers had the second best home record (6-2) in the AFC this season. This fully explains Vegas setting the line at -10 with the Steelers projected for close to 30 points while the Dolphins are expected to score under 20.

From a fantasy perspective, I am focusing almost all of my attention on the Steelers side of the ball. Right at the top of the list is LeVeon Bell who despite missing three games at the start of the year, finished 5th in rushing (1,268 yards) and 2nd behind only David Johnson in receiving yards (616 yards) by running backs. What makes Bell an ever more elite play is the fact the Dolphins ranks near the bottom of the league in rush defense allowing over 140 yards per game. Ouch! The volume should also be there for the passing game as the Dolphins have a low high pace of 68 plays to their opponents per game when looking at the Player Lab Tool. This means Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown would make terrific high-end GPP plays this week. I don’t think the safety is there for cash games as Bell should be the dominant force in this game. If TE Ladarius Green plays he would make a nice GPP option as his role has grown substantially in the passing game.

Looking at the Dolphins, I will be avoiding the passing game for the most part as they will be most likely turning to Matt Moore once again this week. Ryan Tannehill is expected to get some practice time in but has little chance of playing. This limits the floor for Jarvis Landry but the lower price tag makes it intriguing for GPP’s, particularly since the team should be trailing most of the game. Jay Ajayi was a target for me early on but his higher price tag combined with his unspecified injury has me limiting my exposure to a few contrarian lineups for larger GPP’s.

Game Prediction – PIT 27 MIA 17

NFC Wildcard Game #2

New York Giants (11-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Vegas Favorite – GB (-4.5)
Over/Under – 44.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
NYG – 21st in Passing(242.4 Yards/Game), 26th in Rushing (88.3 Yards/Game)
GB – 7th in Passing(262.4 Yards/Game), 5th in Rushing (106.3 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
NYG – 4th vs. the Pass (251.1 Yards/Game), 3rd vs. the Rush (88.6 Yards/Game)
GB – 22nd vs. the Pass (269.3 Yards/Game), 14th vs. the Rush (94.7 Yards/Game)

Finally, on Sunday evening we get the best matchup of the Wildcard round. The New York Giants will travel to Lambeau to take on the Packers. Both teams enter the playoffs already in full playoff mode in their own ways. With the dominance of the Cowboys against everyone but the Giants this season it left the Giants battling for the top Wildcard for weeks leading up to the playoffs. The Packers have been fighting and battling for six straight weeks following their blowout loss to the Redskins. *Aaron Rodgers** told the media he was fully confident they could run the table and he was 100% correct. Let’s get into the fantasy plays.

For Green Bay it is clearly Aaron Rodgers who is the top quarterback play of the week. He carried his team on his back down the stretch throwing for 18 touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 11. He did all of this while hobbling around on a bad hamstring which is just mind blowing when you think about it. Even with TY Montgomery taking over a role as the starting running back the volume has remained for Rodgers and the passing game. Jordy Nelson, after missing a season due to injury, has returned to elite form in 2017 leading all receivers with 14 touchdowns and finishing 5th in receiving yards (1,257). He averaged 9.5 targets per week throughout the year and had eight games with double-digit targets. As the year went along it was Devante Adams, not Randall Cobb who built a rapport with Rodgers and took over as the #2 option in the passing game. He finished the regular season just three yards short of 1,000 and also recorded 12 touchdowns. The matchup is not a slam dunk as the Giants rank Top 5 vs. the pass but the volume and upside in the Packers pass-first offense is not be denied.

For the Giants, the passing attack is the #1 target from a fantasy perspective. They only ranked 24th in passing during the regular season but the matchup is close to the best on the slate as the Packers rank 22d vs. the pass when looking at DVOA. They have also allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks of the regular season. Cue up Odell Beckham Jr. who is as electric as the come and is more than capable of scoring multiple touchdowns. He finished the year 3rd in receiving yards with 1,367 and also scored ten touchdowns. If Green Bay tries to put the clamp down on OBJ look for rookie Sterling Shepard to step up and make some plays. He comes at a discount price on both sites. The Packers are expected to win plus they have been excellent against the run so I will be avoiding the Giants RB’s for the most part. It might make sense to roster one of them in a GPP format if you feel the Giants will be in a favorable game script. The problem is that Rashad Jennings and Paul Perkins have been splitting carries making it hard to pick between them.

Game Prediction – GB 31 NYG 27

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab