Daily Fantasy Pitchers and Stacks – 7/30/16
Austyn Varney
Welcome to Saturday baseball! We have a full 15 game all-day slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Let’s get into some pitchers and stacks to consider. And don’t forget to check back with us later before locks; if something interesting catches our eye we’ll be updating this later.
Pitching Targets
Jake Arrieta FD 10800 DK 11800
Opponent – SEA (Miley) Park – @CHC
FD – 39.04 DK – 25.45
The pitcher position is a very interesting one tonight as there is nobody that sticks out, but there are plenty of guys that are in quality positions. Arrieta is going to be on the top of that list as he has the most talent that is in a good match up. While the Seattle Mariners do have some big left handed bats, they also strikeout at a 20% rate and have sported a .448 SLG. Arrieta on the other hand, has been dominant on the season with a sub .250 wOBA that is backed up by a 26% hard contact rate. This game takes place in Wrigley Field, which is a very neutral ballpark, and is heavily influenced by the wind speed and direction. Arrieta is definitely a little bit risky, but he is the safest on the board and offers a ton of upside.
Julio Teheran FD 8300 DK 9500
Opponent – PHI (Hellickson) Park – @ATL
FD – 35.23 DK – 23.91
Julio Teheran is another guy with a ton of upside as he can strikeout 10 batters in any given start. Teheran and the Braves will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that has sported a .297 wOBA and a 18% line drive rate against right handers. Julio Teheran, however, has been fantastic against both righties and lefties with a combined wOBA of .263. To go along with a great wOBA, he has exhibited a 2.85 xFIP and a 10% HR/FB rate. Teheran is a guy who should be priced around $10000 on both sites, although he is much cheaper than that. While it is very difficult to expect a win, I think the Braves will be able to score some runs on Hellickson. While I prefer Arrieta in cash games, Teheran just might be my preference in tournaments.
Stack Targets
Chicago Cubs vs. Wade Miley (Mariners)
Park – Wrigley Field
Moving on to the late slate, we are going to take a look at the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs will be taking on one of the weaker pitchers on the slate and like the Jays, are one of the top offenses in the majors. The gas can the Cubs will be taking on is Wade Miley, a left handed soft tosser that has been absolutely atrocious to right handers over the last few seasons. Over the course of 80 2016 innings, Miley has given up a .363 wOBA that is heavily supported by a 37% hard contact rate and a 5.16 xFIP. While the Cubs are in a fantastic spot, a lot of teams are and therefore I expect their ownership to be way down. However, there is always a claim to be made for a contrarian stack in a large field tournament. Depending on the wind speed and direction, the Cubs stack has the ability to fluctuate greatly. Keep an eye on that when building stacks in the optimizer tonight.
Top 5-man stack – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras
Contrarian 5-man stack – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Addison Russell
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chase Anderson (Brewers)
Park – Miller Park
While if I had to rank my top stacks, the Pirates wouldn’t be in the top 3, the combination of expected ownership and production is just too much to pass up. I expect the Pirates to go about 1-5% across the board in a match up where they should be around 20-22%. They will be facing off with Chase Anderson, a right hander who has been absolutely pitiful against right handers over the course of his entire career. SO far in 2016, he has given up a .390 wOBA that is supported by his peripherals and batted ball advanced statistics. The game will take place in Miller Park, which came in as a top 5 ballpark for right handed power in 2015. While I love the Pirates, they are a very unpredictable team as we really never know where the production is going to come from. Therefore, I think it is very viable to run a stack of guys lower in the lineup.
Top 5-man stack – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Jung-ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli