Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Divisional Round
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Divisional Round
Next week will feature a small two-game slate with the Conference Championships. This week’s NFL Divisional round is the final four-game slate of the NFL season. We have some exciting games this week on both the NFC and AFC, so let’s dive in.
Vegas
The Vegas numbers this week features a little bit of everything. We have the Patriots as the team with the best Vegas data, and we have two games that feature pretty close spreads in Minnesota and Philadelphia.
The Patriots are also featured in the game with the highest game total with the over/under sitting at 47. But unfortunately, the Patriots dominate that game with as 13.5 points favorites over the Titans (16.75), which makes the game not ideal for stacking in hopes of a two-way shootout.
The Saints (20.75) at Vikings (25.25) is not far behind with a game total of 46. The Vikings are favored by 4.5 points at home so that game if any, seems most likely to shoot out between the two teams.
The other two games Falcons @ Eagles and Jaguars @ Steelers both have a game total sitting at 41. The Steelers (24.25) are 7.5 point favorites at home, while the Falcons (22) are the only road team favored this week by 3 points.
Injuries aren’t expected to play a significant role this week. But DeMarco Murray has already been ruled out for the second consecutive week, and Antonio Brown is fully expected to be back on the field for the Steelers. Be sure to follow our News page at Lineup Labs for any last minute news.
Quarterbacks
Case Keenum ($6,100) – Sitting in the mid-range of quarterback pricing, Keenum is my cash game play this week. He’s $900 cheaper than Brady at the top, and $1,100 more expensive than Blake Bortles. Keenum hasn’t exactly set the world on fire over his past four games but comes into the week with the second-best Vegas data of all quarterbacks. Keenum has thrown at least two touchdowns in four of his last six games and is averaging over 30 attempts during that span. The Saints pass defense is respectable with Marshon Lattimore (4th via PFF), Ken Crawley (28th via PFF), and (PJ Williams 83rd via PFF) at cornerback, but they have also given up 58.38 DK points over the past two weeks to Cam (28.66) and Winston (29.72). Over the last two games, the Saints have given up a total of 712 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 69 rushing yards and a touchdown. Keenum also gets the benefit of having an extra week to prepare and playing the game at home in an indoor stadium. I like the savings with Keenum.
Tom Brady ($7,000) – Brady is in a class of his own this week. With the highest projected team total at home against the best possible matchup in the playoffs. Brady is almost a sure bet to lead the quarterbacks in scoring. The reason why he’s a tournament play for me is that I’d rather use the savings at wide receiver this week. There’s not much convincing I need to do to justify playing Brady at home in the playoffs.
Running backs
Le’Veon Bell ($9,600) – As the case last week with Todd Gurley, this week atop the running back pricing, Bell is hugely overpriced from the other running backs and in a far from the ideal matchup. Bell is $1,800 more expensive than the second highest priced back Kamara ($7,800) yet; he’s still the best bet to reach value with the highest floor and ceiling. This week Bell comes in averaging over 20 DK points for the month and faces a Jags defense that forces opposing offenses to run the ball. The Steelers are a home favorite (-7.5) going up against the Jags defense that picked off Ben Roethlisberger 5 times in their matchup this season. With Antonio Brown potentially playing decoy out on the field, the Steelers could continue to force the ball to Bell who has at least six passing targets in his past seven games. Bell should be in line for 25-30 touches this week in a game that will likely feature terrible weather. According to CBS Pittsburgh, the game temperature is likely to sit in the teens at the start of the game and could see snow flurries and wind speeds near 20MPH. If that weather holds up, there’s no reason why the Steelers would test the Jags secondary and avoid giving the ball to Bell.
Devonta Freeman ($5,900) – Despite only getting two receiving targets last week and averaging 3.7 yards per carry, Freeman was able to turn in an atrocious game into a modest one on the road against the Rams. While I generally don’t like playing running backs on the road, Freeman comes into play as a top 3 projected running back to reach value this week. Freeman has actually produced better on the road than at home this season and has had two of his best games on the season on the road against the Bucs (33.4) and Lions (25.8). At a sub $6,000 price, I like playing Freeman as a favorite going up against the Nick Foles led Eagles who could turn the ball over, which would lead to a shorter field for Atlanta. Freeman should expect to see anywhere from 18-23 touches this week.
Dion Lewis ($6,600)/James White ($4,300)/Rex Burkhead ($5,700) – It’s worth monitoring the Patriots running back situation. Both White and Burkhead returned to practice this week, and the Pats are fully expected to have their trio of running backs available. If Burkhead plays, he is expected to be limited. When he was in the mix, White saw a drop off in playing time with Lewis being the early down backs and Burkhead working out of the passing game. If they all are active, I’d only consider playing Lewis for salary relief. But if only Lewis and White are active I don’t mind playing White because of the work he could see in the passing game and his cheap price tag.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks ($7,000) – From the high priced range, I like Brandin Cooks this week a tad bit more than Adam Thielen ($7,600) for the savings. Cooks is a cheaper way to get exposure to Brady and has been a target monster for the Patriots passing attack this season. Cooks will be facing Adoree’ Jackson who ranks 39th via PFF, but we saw last Tyreek Hill have success against the Titans secondary last week. It’s also worth monitoring if Chris Hogan will play. He’s expected to but if he misses that should bump up Cooks’ target projection.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,700) – Sanu continues to remain involved in the Falcons passing attack over the past four games. In his last four games, Sanu has 30 targets and 17 receptions for 200 yards. He’s affordable under 6K and only needs 5 for 70 to reach value for you. He should see a lot of Jalen Mills who’s a decent cornerback, but if Ronald Darby shadows Julio Jones, Ryan could force more targets Sanu’s way.
Nelson Agholor ($4,800) – Agholor has seen an uptick in production since Nick Foles took over at quarterback for the injured Carson Wentz. He’s seen his market share of targets rise, while Alshon Jeffery has seen his targets decrease. In three games with Foles as the quarterback, Jeffrey has 14 targets to Agholor’s 19. Agholor has upside to make a big play anytime; he’s on the field so one big catch could give you all need to make value.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($5,800) – Ertz has been one of the few Eagles players whose production has not faltered since Nick Foles took over for Wentz. In the first two full games with Foles under center, Ertz has 25 targets and 15 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown. On top of that, Ertz has five targets within the red zone with Foles under center. Of course, Gronk is viewed as the top tight end option on the board, but Ertz has been just as productive as Gronk this season. If Ertz is going to continue to be fed with targets, it almost makes him a lock and play with a $1,300 savings from Gronk.
Delanie Walker ($5,000) – Walker is coming off of a nice game against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. He saw 8 targets and 6 catches for 74 yards. Who knows, he may have even added a touchdown if Mariota didn’t do that touchdown pass to himself within the 5-yard line. He’s the number one receiver for the Titans, and if the game script goes as Vegas thinks it will go, Mariota will be throwing quite a bit. Walker could potentially see double-digit targets, and if he catches 7 for 70, he doesn’t kill your lineup.
Defense
Minnesota Vikings ($2,900) – The chalky plays are going to be the Steelers and the Eagles. I like saving the salary and taking a shot with the Vikings defense. The Saints running backs showed last week that they could be stopped and the Vikings defense is better than the Panthers. Defense is so volatile, so I will almost always look for the team that offers up the most value per dollar.