Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 14
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 14
Week 14 is not a pretty slate by any means. This week marks the fourth week in a row that we will be without the Steelers offense and will also be missing the Patriots, Saints, and Falcons. There’s a lot of value found at the running back position, so depending on what you do at that position, it will help you differentiate your lineup. Let’s dive into it.
Vegas
Since Vegas lines have become such a huge part of the DFS community and are where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Vegas Insider page on Wednesday.
As if Wednesday night there is no current game lines on the Lions at Bucs and Colts at Bills. Outside of that, this week doesn’t feature any game with a huge spread. The Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week (-6) but still are within a touchdown. The Cowboys (-4), Chiefs (-4), Packers (-3.5), Titans (-3), Texans (-3), Rams (-2.5), Jags (-2.5), Vikings (-2.5), and Jets (-1) are all very marginal favorites this week.
This week doesn’t feature a lot of teams with extremely high team totals. There are nine teams currently implied to score more than three touchdowns, headlined by the Chargers with a team total of 26 points. The Chiefs (25.75), Rams (25.25), Titans (23.5), Texans (23.5), Cowboys (22.75), Eagles (22.75), Bengals (22.25), and Packers (22) round out the teams implied to score more than 21 points.
In regards to game totals, there are three game totals over 45 points. The Eagles at the Rams lead the list with a 48 over/under, followed by KC @ OAK (47.5), and LAC @ WAS (46). Of these three games, the Eagles and Rams game has seen the largest total movement with a 3 point drop from the opening 51 game total.
As with every week, check pack the Vegas Insider page on Sunday morning to get the latest Vegas data.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks are very thin this week on the Draftkings main slate. We will be without Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger. Yikes.
Alex Smith (DK $6,500) – I feel like I am chasing my tail after Smith’s 23.48 point performance last week. But I expect most people to flock to Smith due to recency bias and the favorable matchup he has this week against the Raiders. Smith is going up against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in the league in aFPA. The Raiders are riding a two-game winning streak to put them back into contention for first place in the AFC West, but have faced pedestrian quarterbacks the last two weeks. They held both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch in check. But before that, they were lit up by Brady (28.6 FP), Cutler (27.4), Taylor (16.7), and Alex Smith (28.68). A lot is riding on this game so Smith will look to snap the four-game losing streak and regain the lead in the West. One stat worth noting if you are playing Smith, with the field, Smith has failed to meet salary expectations 4 of the last six times he was priced at $6,000 range.
Russell Wilson (DK $6,200) – At $6,200 this is the lowest price we’ve seen Russell Wilson since November of 2016. That’s insane when you consider the fact that Wilson leads all quarterbacks in scoring after his bye week. Wilson has been smashing as of late, accumulating at least 24 points in 8 of his last 10 games. Now, this week he’s priced down severely because of his tough matchup on the road against the Jaguars. The Jags rank 1st in the league in aFPA this season and are even more dominant at home than on the road. The Jags have allowed an average of 11.61 Draftking points to opposing QBs at home. When you factor that defense dominance with Wilson’s home/road splits, it doesn’t look like an ideal situation for Wilson. It’s just tough for me to write off Wilson given his production the past 10 games and his dramatic price difference. Wilson is an ideal GPP play to hedge off the field.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $5,500) – The lower tier is where I will likely land on quarterbacks this week. Jimmy G got his first start last week and certainly passed the eye test. Although he didn’t throw a touchdown and only scored 11.52 DK points, he completed 70% of his passes and missed the 300-yard bonus by only 7 yards. Outside of that, he looked poised under Shanahan’s offense and was able to cut through the Bears defense with just half a playbook. Now Jimmy G finds himself as a road dog against the Texans who rank 30th in aFPA. The Texan’s defense has struggled this season once JJ Watt went down and this figures to be a close game. I think this game has sneaky shootout potential and like how Garoppolo’s savings round out my lineup.
Cash:
A. Smith, J. Garoppolo, M. Stafford (If active), J. Winston
GPP:
R. Wilson, C. Wentz, J. Goff, B. Gabbert
Running Backs
Running back offers a lot of value and the top tier running backs are all in difficult spots.
LeSean McCoy (DK $7,200) – McCoy is the only running back of the top five priced backs that is expected to exceed his implied projected point based on salary. Unfortunately, as I write this, there is no line out for this game due to the Bills not naming their QB starter. But I expect to be a slight favorite at home, which benefits McCoy. McCoy has a seen his price drop to the low $7,000 for the first time since September of this season. He’s received 15 targets in the last four weeks and figures to see more check downs if Perriman is under center. The Colts rank 30th in aFPA to opposing running backs, which is why I boost McCoy slightly over Gurley for the price savings. McCoy is still a wait and see based on the Vegas line, but I like him in the higher tier.
Lamar Miller (DK $5,800) – I mentioned earlier that I like this game as a sneaky shootout. Lamar Miller is in theory in a good spot. He’s a 3 point home favorite and is going up against a 49er defense that ranks 31st in aFPA this season. I would note that Miller has only carried the ball more than 20 times once in his last six games and has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark this season. The 49ers have only allowed 100-yard rushers to 3 running backs (Gurley, Elliott, and Peterson) this season, so their ranking may be a little misleading. I do like that Miller is averaging more at least 3 targets the last four games, but he hasn’t entirely been efficient with those opportunities. Miller is a decent cash gameplay if you need the salary relief from the top tier and want to differentiate from the value plays I’ll talk about next.
Giovani Bernard (DK $3,100) – The free square of the week. Bernard is the chalk running back this week assuming Mixon is out this week. He is near minimum price and was slashing through the Steelers defense on Monday night. There’s not much more to say here other than Bernard is near min salary and has 20+ touch upside against a Bears defense that is banged up on the defensive line. If Mixon is out, just lock Bernard in and eat the massive ownership.
Cash:
G. Bernard, T. Gurley, M. Gordon, L. McCoy, L. Miller, R. Barber (Doug Martin inactive), J. Howard
GPP:
K. Hunt, S. Perine, M. Lynch, A. Morris
Wide receivers
Wide Receivers are where you will more than likely differentiate your lineup. There are good plays at the top and in the mid-range.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,500) – Hopkins is a target monster and is going up against the 49ers who rank 16th in aFPA. Hopkins has received more than 10 targets in 7 of the last 8 games. He’s exceeded value in all but one game this season and should have a big game against the 49ers secondary. If you’re paying up for any wide receiver, don’t over think it.
Josh Gordon (DK $5,500) – Every real football fan was watching Gordon last week to see if he would show any signs of the superstar he was when he first came into the league. Well if you ask me, Gordon looked a bit rusty and had some issues catching some of the balls but saw a significant amount of targets. Last week Gordon went up against a tough Chargers secondary and still saw 11 targets. This week he has what comes across as a dream matchup against the Packers who rank 32nd in aFPA. Gordon will likely be heavily owned given his talent level and his good matchup, I’m just not sold on him yet. I also don’t see how Corey Coleman ($4,100) who led the team in receiving before Gordon was activated completely disappears with 0 catches. I understand why people are on Gordon, but I might be lower than the field on him.
Sterling Shepard (DK $5,300) – I think he’s my preferred pivot off Gordon. Before his injury that sidelined him for 3 weeks, he was averaging 12 targets in week 7 and 8. Last week he disappointed with only 3 catches, but that was with Geno Smith under center. Now he’s $1,700 cheaper, in a good matchup, and has Eli Manning back under center. He’s going up against the Cowboys who rank 25th in aFPA allowed to wide receivers. I like the Giants to keep this game close, so I expect Shepard to get the volume he saw before he got hurt.
Trent Taylor (DK $3,300) – My favorite punt play at wide receiver. With Jimmy Garoppolo he came up big in what Kyle Shanahan called his “Michael Jordan game given he was puking before the game last week. Sickness and all, the rookie came away with catching 6 of his 6 targets for 92 yards and looked like Julian Edelman for Garoppolo early last year.
Cash:
D. Hopkins, L. Fitzgerald, A. Green, A. Thielen, J. Gordon, G. Tate, S. Shepard, E. Sanders
GPP:
K. Allen, T. Hill, D. Bryant, D. Adams, M. Crabtree, S. Diggs, C. Coleman, G. Tate, M. Goodwin, D. Thomas,
Tight End:
A lot of value opens up at tight end this week. As always you can be contrarian by paying up for the studs like Kelce, but this week the way to go for cash games is down at the barrel.
Stephen Anderson (DK $3,200) – Anderson had a breakout game last week against the Titans filling in for Bruce Ellington and Cj Fiedorowicz. Anderson saw 12 targets and caught 5 of them for 79 yards and a touchdown. Anderson was a wide receiver in college and is a freak athlete and will figure to see work out of the slot this week. It’s worth monitoring if Will Fuller will play this week as that may eat into some of his targets. But Anderson should be a popular value play.
Trey Burton (DK $2,900) – Zach Ertz is in the concussion protocol. At this point there isn’t much being reported other than Ertz is with the team. IF Ertz is inactive, this opens up a ton of value at tight end, and Burton will almost be another lock and play. When Ertz missed week 9 against the Broncos, Burton filled in with 2 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown pass.
Cash:
T. Kelce, J.Witten, S. Anderson, T. Burton (Ertz), A. Seferian-Jenkins
GPP:
H. Henry, K. Rudolph, C. Clay, J. Graham
Defense
Cincinnati Bengals (DK $3,300) – I like the Bengals this week as a home favorite against a team that has an implied total of 16.25.
New York Jets (DK $3,300) – The Broncos offensive line is vulnerable right now. That means Leonard Williams will have several opportunities to get to Trevor Siemian.
Cash:
Bengals, Packers, Jets
GPP:
Jaguars, Titans, Vikings