DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5
*Chris Durell*
DraftKings Pick’Em Breakdown – Week 5
Week four of the NFL season is in the books and we now move on to the bye weeks. Technically the Tampa Bay and Miami have already had their bye week due to Hurricane Irma but this week four teams(Atlanta, Denver, Washington, New Orleans) will be getting a break from the action. With the limited games, the DraftKings Pick’Em “Early Only” contest is limited to just six tiers this week so let’s jump and take a look at some of the top picks.
Tier 1
The first tier gives us eight quarterbacks with a lack of top matchups when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position as the Lions, Jaguars, Panthers, and Bills all rank Top 10 in that area. My top options in this tier is Carson Palmer who faces a Eagles team that has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings per game(20.3) to quarterbacks and the third-most passing yards per game(285). If the Eagles are unable to get pressure on Palmer this week it could spell trouble for the secondary as the Cardinals have a speedy wide receiver core with J.J. Nelson and John Brown and then have to deal with Larry Fitzgerald who may have the most reliable hands in the league. Palmer will most likely be the chalk here as he currently sits third in tags at the QB position when looking at FanShareSports. Next on my list is Eli Manning who trails on Carson Palmer in attempts this season after tossing it up 47 and 49 times over the last two weeks. The Giants are desperate for their first win of the season and Eli has the advantage of throwing to one of, if not the best wideout in the game with Odell Beckham Jr. The matchup isn’t great, by any means, as the Chargers rank 13th in DK points allowed to QB’s this season but that should only help keep his ownership down and that appears to be the case as he ranks 10th in tags on FanShare as of Wednesday night.
Tier 2
In the second tier, we get a nice mix of elite wideouts and running backs. For the wide receivers, Antonio Brown gets the toughest matchup facing the Jags who have allowed the fewest passing yard per game(147) and rank 2nd in DK points per game allowed to receivers. This has me leaning Le’Veon Bell who is coming off a huge bounce-back week where he rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns while catching four of six balls for an additional 42 yards. While the Jags have been dominant against the passing game, the same can’t be said for their rush defense as they have allowed the most yards per game(165.5) and rank 26th in DK points per game to the position. I am also in favor of rookie Leonard Fournette on the other side of the ball as the Steelers, like the Jags have been dominant vs. the pass but weak vs. the run. I talked about Eli above being one of my favorite quarterbacks due to the volume which automatically has me drifting towards OBJ who is averaging 8.3 targets per game. The only risk here is that he has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury. If it’s volume you are after, don’t discount the matchup for Keenan Allen who is likely going to see a ton of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as he is averaging 10 targets per game and already has two 100-yard games in 2017. While the Dolphins pass game ranks in the bottom of the league(28th in passing DVOA), I do like DeVante Parker this week as the Titans rank 31st in DK points per game allowed to wideouts and Parker is averaging nine targets per game and has over 75 yards in each game so far.
Tier 3
In the third tier, I favor the wideouts who all get matchups vs. teams who rank 25th or worse when looking at DraftKings points allowed to the position. By default, I lean Larry Fitzgerald as I mentioned Carson Palmer in the QB section being my favorite. Even at 34 years of age, Fitzgerald has not lost a step and still remains up there with the games elite. He sits fifth in targets per game(10.3) and has scored a touchdown in back to back contests. My second favorite wideout is Pierre Garcon who is likely going to be lower owned coming off a poor outing vs. the Cardinals but consider he had a very tough matchup vs. Patrick Peterson. Garcon is the leading receiver for the 49ers and is averaging 8.3 targets per game and has a good shot to score his first touchdown of the season. Of the four running backs, I lean Melvin Gordon who faces a Giants defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game(142.8) and should see some added volume after making it clear he has been frustrated with his overall touches.
Tier 4
We get a couple tight ends in this tier but I will be avoiding them as it’s a vulnerable position and both players get tough matchups s the Bengals and Cardinals rank Top 5 against the position. Of the two running backs, I lean Christian McCaffrey who is getting a whopping 7.3 targets per game. This should continue in Week 5 as the Lions have held opponents to 86.3 rushing yards per game which has been Jonathan Stewart’s department through four weeks. Looking at the wideouts, I favor Rishard Matthews who faces a Dolphins defense who has allowed sixth-most passing yards per game(272.3) and ranks 21st in DK points allowed to the position.
Tier 5
The decisions become a bit more tricky as we get into the final two tiers but there are a couple players who stand out. First of all, I like Duke Johnson over Joe Mixon at the running back position as he faces a Jets team that ranks 27th in DVOA defense vs. the run. He gets out-touched in the run game by Isaiah Crowell but has a rushing touchdown in back to back games and provides most of his value via the passing game. He has seen his target share rise each week with 5, 6, 7, and 10 targets and now has over 200 yards through the air. I won’t be touching Alshon Jeffery in any format this week as not only has he underperformed through four weeks, he also gets a terrible matchup and is likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. I like Sterling Shepard and John Brown in this tier who make nice stacking options with their quarterbacks(Manning & Palmer) who I mentioned in tier one.
Tier 6
Things get even tougher in the final tier this week as there is no one name that stands out, which I guess should help level out the ownership. I love the speed of J.J. Nelson vs. the Eagles defense but he presents a ton of risk as he has taken the biggest hit since the return of John Brown who I mentioned earlier. I do, however, like his teammate Andre Ellington who is working in a committee with Chris Johnson and despite being out-touched in the run game over the past three weeks(36-12), has been getting the majority of the targets out of the backfield(27 last three games) and has piled up 157 yards receiving over the past three games. Despite a tough matchup vs. the Panthers, my only other target in this tier is Ameer Abdullah who scored his first touchdown last week on a seaosn high 20 carries and 94 yards.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!