Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 12
*Chris Durell*
Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 12
Tier 1
We start off in the first tier with two running backs facing each other this weekend. Kareem Hunt sits second in the league in rushing yards(873) but has been in a downward spiral lately with five straight games without a 100+ yard game or a touchdown. He gets another elite matchup this week facing a Bills team that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game(119.9), rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush, and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. On the other side of the ball, we have LeSean McCoy who sits eighth in league rushing yards(709) but has been inconsistent with four games under 50 yards and three games over 100 yards. The good news is he gets a terrific matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(129.2) and rank 32nd in DVOA vs. the rush. The one thing that scares me is that they rank ninth when looking at Draftkings points per game allowed to running backs and it has to do with their ability to limit the yards through the air. They have allowed a league-low 235 yards total and zero touchdowns.
Looking at the wide receivers, there are some glaring differences which should make the decision a bit easier this week. Julio Jones slightly leads the way in receiving yards(786 to 743) but has had a ton of trouble scoring with just one touchdown on the season. His injuries have also been a problem which have limited him to an average of 72% of the snaps compared to Green’s 87% on the season. Touchdowns are what pay the bills in fantasy and Green has scored one in two straight and six of his last eight games. The only issue is the individual matchup as Green will likely see a ton of Jason McCourty who is PFF’s 3rd ranked cornerback this season.
Top Targets in this Tier – Kareem Hunt, Julio Jones
Tier 2
Travis Kelce leads the second tier as he averages 17.5 DraftKings points for the season. He has collected seven or more receptions in three straight weeks, picked up 100+ yards in two of his last three games(four times this season), and has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games as well. The matchup gets a little tougher this week as the Bills rank 13th in DVOA vs. the pass and 15th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the tight end as they have limited them to just two touchdowns on the season. He is clearly Alex Smith’s top target in the passing game but I have a strong feeling the Chiefs will be feeding Kareem Hunt this week. For Tevin Coleman, it will come down to the status of Devonta Freeman who is still in the concussion protocol as of Tuesday. Coleman has filled in nicely and has now scored in three straight weeks. The Falcons are double-digit favorites vs. the Bucs so if Freeman is out, look for another high volume game from Coleman.
When it comes to the wide receivers, we get a couple target monsters in Jarvis Landry(10.8 per game) and Mike Evans(9.3 per game) who are both playing on the road. Of the two, it is Evans who gets the much tougher matchup vs. the Falcons secondary that has limited teams to 200.8 yards per game through the air(7th overall) and the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game. Although he managed five catches for 92 yards last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it is still a downgrade from Jameis Winston in an already tough matchup. For Landry, the game script is right up his alley as the Dolphins are huge 17 point dogs which will force Jay Cutler to throw it a ton and although they have been better lately, the Pats still rank 29th in DVOA vs. the pass and 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry
Tier 3
The biggest decision in this tier will be between the two Patriots as they get an elite matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 31st in DVOA vs. the pass. Cooks will likely be the higher owned of the two, coming off a monster game where he caught six of nine targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, but gets the tougher matchup as Miami ranks 16th overall in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. I don’t think he is a fade, by any means, but I prefer Gronk as the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts and like I said, should be lower owned. T.Y. Hilton is a fade at this point as he has not only been inconsistent but his quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, is still in the concussion protocol. Christian McCaffrey is a great option this week as he has seen an increased role in the running game, especially in the red zone, and comes in with rushing touchdowns in back to back weeks. He also leads all running backs with an average of 7.9 targets per week which would also put him 17th when adding in wide receivers. This is a perfect scenario for DraftKings which is full PPR.
Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Christian McCaffrey
Tier 4
First of all, I think we can avoid Zach Ertz this week after he made his return from a hamstring injury last week but appeared to not be a part of the game plan as he was targeted just five times, catching two of them for eight yards. It also doesn’t help his cause facing a Bears team that ranks ninth overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position giving up two touchdowns all season. His teammate Jay Ajayi doesn’t have much going for him either as the Bears rank 16th in DK points per game allowed to running backs and despite breaking off two long runs over his last two games has only seen 15 total carries since joining the Eagles. The issue is the team using all four running backs despite Ajayi being the most talented. The entire Chiefs offense let us down last week but on a positive note, Tyreke Hill caught all seven of his targets for 68 yards and gets a plus matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game(246.9) and rank 19th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts. Greg Olsen is set to return this week for the Panthers which could possibly cut into Devin Funchess’ targets but with Curtis Samuel out for the season, I am not too concerned at this point. He is also coming off his best game of the season where he recorded five receptions for a season-high 92 yards and his second multi-touchdown game. He faces a Jets team that ranks mid-pack when looking at passing yards allowed per game(229) but ranks 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 21st in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts.
Top Targets in this Tier – Devin Funchess, Tyreke Hill
Tier 5
The first tier of quarterbacks gives us four options with excellent matchups against teams who both rank outside the Top 20 in DVOA vs. the pass and DraftKings points allowed to the position. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are 10-point favorites at home to the Bucs who have allowed the second most passing yards per game(276.3) so if you are playing Julio in Tier 1, I think it makes sense to go with Matt Ryan here. I mentioned the tough matchup for A.J. Green in the first tier but to be a bit contrarian in your lineup you can pair him with Andy Dalton who is likely the lowest owned quarterback in this tier. Alex Smith leads all quarterbacks in this tier with an average of 21 DK points per game but is on an ugly stretch where he is averaging just 231.7 yards per game over his last three games and thrown for just three touchdowns. It also hurts Smith a bit considering Kareem Hunt and the run game get an elite matchup vs. the Bills 31st ranked rush defense. While Cam Newton didn’t reach the 300-yard passing mark in his last game before the Bye Week, he did have a monster game with four passing touchdowns and also rushed five times for 95 yards totaling 35.66 DraftKings points. The total falls below 40 this week which is a bit scary but the Jets have been much better vs. the run this season ranking 11th in DK points allowed to running backs while ranking outside the Top 20 in DK allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Finally, we get Marcus Mariota who topped 20 DraftKings points for the first time last game with 306 yards passing with one touchdown and added a rushing touchdown as well. The Colts have been terrible against the pass this season allowing the third-most yards per game(274.5) but Mariota just hasn’t shown us the upside needed to win a tournament.
Top Targets in this Tier – Matt Ryan, Cam Newton
Tier 6
I will start with the running backs as one is leading the tier in fantasy points per game and the other is at the bottom. With his second 100-yard game in three weeks and fourth on the season, Jordan Howard now sits third in the league with 841 rush yards. The issue this week is the matchup as the Bears go on the road to face the 9-1 Eagles who have limited teams to a league-best 71 yards rushing per game and have allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to running backs. As for DeMarco Murray, he has been leading the way in the timeshare with Derrick Henry but has received less than 15 carries in three straight games while not topping 50 yards once. The good news for Murray is that he gets a plus matchup vs. the Colts who rank 25th in DraftKings points per game to running backs.
Looking at the wideouts in this tier, I will start with the injury to Danny Amendola. He caught eight of his nine targets last week in Mexico but was limited in the second half and was also limited in practice all week leading up to this game. I will be fading him this week as he is nothing more than the third or fourth option in the pass game with the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, and the running backs in the mix. Alshon Jeffery has been coming on strong lately and has scored a touchdown in three straight games(four total) topping 15 DraftKings points in each. With Zach Ertz still possibly dealing with an injury, I think Jeffery can still hit value for us despite the tougher matchup vs. the Bears who have allowed the 12th fewest passing yards per game(213) and also rank 12th in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. They just have not faced a passing attack quite like the Eagles present with Carson Wentz. The other matchup I am targeting in this tier is Rishard Matthews, despite my lack of enthusiasm for Marcus Mariota’s ceiling. Matthews leads the Titans wideouts in targets this season and coming off a season where he led the team with nine touchdowns, he has heated up with one in two of his last three games and is coming off his best game of the season with 113 receiving yards.
Top Targets in this Tier – Alshon Jeffery, Rishard Matthews
Tier 7
Starting with some injury news, Devonta Freeman was once again absent from Falcons practice on Wednesday as he is still dealing with a concussion. Even if he gets in a limited practice near the end of the week and plays, I will be fading him and playing Tevin Coleman who I mentioned above.
Then we have two tight ends facing each other this week. Both defenses rank inside the Top 20 in DK points per game allowed to the position and with Jack Doyle possibly without his quarterback this week, I will be fading him. If you are planning on choosing one of these two I would suggest Delanie Walker. Despite not scoring a receiving touchdown in 2017, he has been targeted on the regular with nine or more in three of his last four games and has been a safe option with double-digit DK points in all four of those games.
For the wideouts, we get three secondary options on their respective teams. Kenny Still leads the way in this tier averaging 13.2 DK points per game but is the third option on the Dolphins behind Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker. He is definitely a boom or bust deep threat that has shown us the upside and is coming off his biggest game of the year where he caught seven of eight targets, including a 45-yard and 61-yard catch, for 180 yards and a touchdown. Mohamed Sanu has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games but isn’t getting the volume in the Falcons passing game with just three receptions in three straight games. Against a weak Bucs passing defense that could go up a little bit so if you are using Matt Ryan in Tier 5, Sanu makes a nice stacking option with touchdown upside.
Top Targets in this Tier – Mohamed Sanu, Delanie Walker
Tier 8
Although Duke Johnson is showing a questionable tag at the moment, he was removed from the Browns injury report and is good to go on Sunday. He continues to get out-carried by Isaiah Crowell but is a big factor in the passing game as he has picked up five or more targets in all but one game this season which is perfect for DraftKings and its full PPR point system. DeSean Jackson has been his deep-threat self this season with just one catch over 40 yards and combine that with the tough matchup vs. the Falcons and he is a full fade for me this week. Corey Coleman made his return to the Browns offense last week and made an immediate impact catching six of a team-high 11 targets for 80 yards. The Bengals have been tough on wideouts all year ranking fourth in DK points per game allowed but I still like him as a contrarian option as Duke Johnson should be the highest-owned option in this tier. Neither of the tight ends present a ton of upside but if you are choosing one, I prefer Austin Sefarian-Jenkins who has been a nice redzone target for the Jets as he has caught four of his six inside the 20-yard line for all three of his touchdowns. It is also noteworthy that Charles Clay may still be dealing with a knee injury as he has been limited at practice again this week and has been quiet in his two games since returning to the lineup. It doesn’t help that the Bills keep flip flopping with their quarterbacks.
Top Target in this Tier – Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!