MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 7/31/18

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

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STARTING PITCHERS

Trevor Bauer vs. Minnesota Twins
Stadium – Target Field
FanDuel = $11,800
DraftKings = $13,300

Bauer dominated the Pirates in his last start, recording 10 strikeouts and allowing just five base runners over seven innings. It marked the fifth time this season he hasn’t allowed a run, helping lead to his career-best 2.32 ERA. His ERA hasn’t really been aided by luck, either, considering his 2.25 FIP and .312 opponents’ BABIP. Hitters have swung at 32.3% of pitches he has thrown outside of the strike zone, helping him post a lofty 11.7 K/9. The Twins lineup is even thinner after they traded Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks and they could make more trades Tuesday. Bauer stands out as one of the premier starting pitching options on the slate.

James Shields vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $6,000

Shields hasn’t been terrible this season, but his 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP aren’t exactly stellar. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal with a 6.8 K/9 and opponents’ have actually been somewhat unlucky with a .264 BABIP against him. This matchup does lean in his favor, though, considering his 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 13 starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. He also gets the benefit of facing a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs (384) in the league and just traded away one of their best hitters in Mike Moustakas. He won’t cost you much, leaving Shields with the potential to provide value in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Jose Abreu vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,200

Abreu has had a disappointing season by his standards, but he’s closing out the month of July strong by hitting 10-for-28 (.357) with three home runs across his last seven games. Even with his down batting average overall, he still has a .357 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. In his career against Duffy, Abreu is 16-for-50 (.320) with two home runs.

Tucker Barnhart vs. Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,800

Barnhart has logged a hit in each of his last seven starts, but he didn’t finish with multiple hits in any of those contests. His overall numbers aren’t anything special with a .252 batting average and a .371 slugging percentage, but he does have a .398 wOBA against lefties. At this cheap price, Barnhart might be worth the risk in tournament play.

Others to consider: Paul Goldschmidt (first base) and John Hicks (first base)

SECOND BASE

Rougned Odor vs. Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,900

Odor has completely turned his season around with a great month in July, batting .357 with six home runs, 12 RBI, and six steals. He still only has 10 home runs total, but his .268 average is a drastic improvement over his .206 mark in 2017. Godley allows a ton of baserunners with his 1.53 WHIP, so look for Odor to finish the month on a high note.

Neil Walker vs. Yefry Ramirez, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,900

The Yankees brought in Walker to provide depth for their young infield, but he struggled out of the gate with his new team. Injuries have opened up regular playing time for him lately and he’s cashed in the opportunity, hitting 18-for-43 (.419) with 10 RBI and eight runs scored over his last 14 games. The Yankees are likely looking to acquire another hitter, but Walker should be in the lineup Tuesday. If you can’t pay up for Odor, Walker is an excellent cost-effective option with upside.

Others to consider: Jed Lowrie and Starlin Castro

THIRD BASE

Eugenio Suarez vs. Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,900

Suarez might not get a lot of press on a bad Reds team, but he’s mashing with a .298 batting average and a .383 OBP. He also has 24 home runs and 80 RBI and should easily set new career highs in both categories. He has an incredible 218 wRC+ against lefties and could give Boyd plenty of trouble in this game.

Eduardo Escobar vs. Bartolo Colon, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,700

Colon has found a way to hang around, but he hasn’t pitched well with a 5.02 ERA and a 5.12 FIP. His 1.26 WHIP is largely aided by the fact that he doesn’t walk many batters, not because he doesn’t allow a lot of hits. He doesn’t miss many bats, either, with a 5.4% swinging-strike rate and a 5.2 K/9. The Diamondbacks will likely be a popular stack Tuesday, Escobar included.

Others to consider: Manny Machado and Miguel Andujar

SHORTSTOP

Didi Gregorius vs. Yefry Ramirez, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Yankee Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,900

Whenever the Yankees are playing at home, Gregorius vaults up towards the top-tier of shortstops in DFS. He is batting .240 with five home runs on the road, but he has a .283 average and 13 homers at Yankee Stadium. Add in his .351 wOBA against righties and Gregorius could provide plenty of value for your entry.

Chris Taylor vs. Wade Miley, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,200

Miley has a sparkling 2.01 ERA across five starts this year, but don’t get too excited based on his 3.97 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. He also has more walks (13) than he does strikeouts (12). He was a disaster for the Orioles last year with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over 32 starts, so expect his ERA to climb sooner rather than later. Taylor is 13-for-45 (.289) with seven runs scored and nine RBI since the All-Star break, putting him on the map against Miley based on his reasonable prices on both sites.

Others to consider: Elvis Andrus and Jose Peraza

OUTFIELD

A.J. Pollock vs. Bartolo Colon, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $5,200

Pollock didn’t cash in on a great matchup against Martin Perez on Monday, finishing the game 1-for-5. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself against another struggling pitcher in Colon. Pollock does have better numbers against lefties, but he’s hit righties well also with a .377 wOBA.

Avisail Garcia vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,500

Garcia has been injured for much of this season, which has been a major disappointment considering his excellent performance in 2017. Although his walk rate is a ridiculously low 1.7%, he’s hit .277 with 11 home runs in only 181 plate appearances. He has a .368 wOBA against lefties and has also had plenty of success against Duffy as he is 11-for-33 (.333) against him in his career.

Leonys Martin vs. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,900

Bailey came off the DL last week and allowed only two runs over 6.2 innings against the Cardinals, striking out eight batters. It was a rare strong performance based on his 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP overall. It was only the fourth time in 13 starts that he didn’t allow a home run and just the second time that he struck out more than four batters in a game. Don’t shy away from stacking against him because of one good outing, he’s still not a good pitcher at this stage of his career. The Tigers might not have a lot of great hitters, but Martin stands out based on his .340 wOBA against righties this year.

Others to consider: Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun