MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks and Pitchers – 9/16/16
Welcome to another TGIF edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. Today we have one game in the afternoon (MIL vs. CHC) and 14 games on the main slate. The pitching is elite today with at least five aces on the mound meaning it will be important to find value. There are also some nice value and punt options which will help us get to the elite bats in Coors Field and Fenway Park. Let’s take a look at a few pitchers and stacking options for tonight.
PITCHERS
Max Scherzer FD 11000 DK 13700
Opponent – ATL (Gant) Park – @ATL
FD – 42.62 DK – 27.81
Out of all the aces on the mound today it’s Scherzer with the highest price tag and the best matchup. The Nationals are currently -235 favorites as they go on the road to Atlanta tonight to face the Braves. Max has been elite this season with an 11.09 K/9 rate and has been the beneficiary of an outstanding schedule down the stretch. This will be the fifth time he has faced the Braves or Phillies in his last six starts. He backs up his elite K rate with a 2.78 ERA and 3.38 xFIP despite being a heavy fly ball pitcher. With the highest floor and ceiling tonight Scherzer is by far the #1 option on the mound.
Luke Weaver FD 7100 DK 5200
Opponent – SF (Moore) Park – @SF
FD – 29.78 DK – 20.17
I mentioned in the opening that it will be critical to find some value tonight with so many aces on the mound plus multiple top-end stacking matchups. Luke Weaver is one of the top pitching values on the mound tonight as he comes in with a very low price, especially on DraftKings where he makes an excellent second pitcher option. Weaver has now made six starts for the Cardinals since being called up in mid-August and has been very impressive. He sits with a 3.48 ERA and an even better 2.76 xFIP despite giving up a 20% HR/FB rate and dealing with a high .325 BABIP and 84% LOB rate. Yes, that means there could be even more upside in the near future. Weaver also comes with an elite 11.32 K/9 rate. The floor is high, but the ceiling may be limited as the Giants only K 17.4% against right-handed pitching. Either way, Weaver is an elite salary relief option on Friday.
STACKS
Colorado Rockies vs. Christian Friederich (Padres)
Park – Coors Field
It is going to be hard to fade the Rockies tonight as they return home for a matchup against the Padres. They currently sit with a crazy high 6.75 run projection as -165 home favorites. They will be facing southpaw Christian Friedrich who surprised the Rockies in Petco in his last start, limiting them to two hits over seven innings while striking out ten batters. With a short turn around the Rockies, batters should have a solid gameplan going into tonight’s game, and Friedrich now goes from the best pitchers park in baseball to the best hitters park in baseball. Target the top of the order in Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez. If you want to go more value insert whichever catcher gets the nod tonight between Nick Hundley and Tom Murphy.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Ryan Vogelsong (Pirates)
Park – Great American Ballpark
The Reds could come in as a very low-owned stacking option tonight with so many powerful offenses in extraordinary situations and the risk of rain in Cincinnati tonight. The game is a pickem between the Pirates and Reds and could easily reach the over if the rain holds off. The Reds have been a top 10 hitting team over the last 30 days with a .332 wOBA and 105 wRC+. They get an elite matchup tonight as they will face Ryan Vogelsong who is somehow still getting the nod every five days. He has pitched to an awful 5.07 xFIP this season and has been even worse lately giving up 16 earned runs in his last three starts while only striking out five and walking seven batters. Joey Votto should be the core of you stack with his elite .417 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .244 ISO against right-handed pitching. You can fill in around him with salary relief options like Jose Peraza, Tyler Holt, and Adam Duvall who has hit 24 of his 30 HR in 2016 against righties.