MLB Fanduel Draftkings Lineup for 05/04/17
*Chris Durell*
Welcome back for another all-day Thursday set of games in Major League Baseball. The schedule is front end loaded with eight games in the afternoon and finishes off with a smaller five-game slate later tonight. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the MLB Player Lab.
This season, new with our MLB Subscription Package we offer Daily Fantasy Graphs. We wanted to create a tool that gives users the ability to visualize data points for Hitters and Pitchers by showing DFS salaries/fantasy points over time. If any of you come from the world of Stocks or Equities Trading, you will immediately understand the usefulness of these charts. Just as price and volume are essential in understanding a stocks movement, points and salary are core for DFS.
**STARTING PITCHERS**
Early Slate
Kyle Freeland
Opponent – @SD
Park – Petco Park(Pitcher Positive)
Vegas Favorite (COL -103)
Vegas Total (8)
First of all, Max Scherzer is an elite play even though he let us down in his last start. He has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate but is also a bit risky as the Diamondbacks sit 3rd in wOBA(.346) and 10th in wRC+(107) vs. right-handed pitching. This brings me to one of the top value pitchers on the slate due to his matchup vs. the K heavy Padres in one of the best pitchers parks in the big leagues. The game is a pick em as I write this late Wednesday night but I have a feeling the tables will turn in the Rockies favor as we get closer to lineup lock. Freeland has been very impressive in his rookie season with a 3-1 record and has limited his opponents to one earned run or less in four of his five starts. The K/9 upside isn’t quite where we would like to see it(5.2 K/9) but he will get a big boost tonight as the Padres have struck out 26% of the time over the last seven days. The Padres also rank 28th in wOBA(.263) and wRC+(61) vs. left-handed pitching. Freeland is a cheap SP2 on DraftKings and GPP play on FanDuel which allows you load up on bats.
Main Slate
Adam Wainwright
Opponent – vs. MIL
Park – Busch Stadium(Pitcher Positive)
Vegas (STL -140)
Vegas Total (7.5)
The options on the five-game main slate aren’t quite as inviting so I will dip down into the value range and roll with Adam Wainwright. He was scheduled to start yesterday for the Cardinals, but the game got rained out early enough where it shouldn’t affect him at all. It has been a rough start to the 2017 season for the veteran right-hander but things are looking certainly looking up moving forward. He has won two straight starts, striking out 13 batters and walking just one over 11.1 innings despite giving up six earned runs. For the season, he is running a 6.12 ERA, but the good news is the xFIP (much better indicator of future ERA) sits at just 3.18 so far through five starts. The other significant indicator that stood out to me when looking deeper at Waino’s numbers was the BABIP that is running at a crazy high .439 right now while his career average of .298 is much lower. He is a better value on DraftKings in the mid $7K range but in play on both sites, whether playing the All Day or Main Slate.
**OFFENSIVE STACKS**
Early Slate
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers (AJ Griffin)
Park – Minute Maid Park(Pitcher Positive)
Vegas (HOU -152)
Vegas Total (8.5)
While Minute Maid Park is more favorable for the pitcher, the Astros rank 10th overall this season with a 115 wRC+ which accounts for park factor. They also sit second behind only the Yankees in wRC+(123) vs. right-handed pitching and get a matchup vs. one of the weakest pitchers on the slate. Yes, there are worse pitchers but none getting rocked as hard as Griffin. He leads all pitchers tonight with a 48.7% hard-contact rate against and has been producing just 25% ground balls thus far. His 4.11 ERA also looks to be a bit lucky as he is currently running a .167 BABIP that is close to 100 points lower than his career mark. This is not good news for Griffin tonight but great news for us DFSers as the Astros could be one of the highest scoring teams of the night. The top of the order is the place to be in Houston and Jose Altuve should be the centerpiece in your stack as he can contribute in all areas and hits out of the three hole. Carlos Correa hits right behind him in the cleanup spot and George Springer leads off. Keep an eye on the lineups in the morning as Marwin Gonzalez makes a great play if he is in the Top 5 of the lineup. He is 9 for his last 19 with two doubles, five home runs and has driven in 13 runs.
Main Slate
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels(Daniel Wright)
Park – Safeco Field(Neutral)
Vegas (SEA -130)
Vegas Total (8.5)
The Red Sox are going to be the chalk on the five-game main slate so I love the idea of pivoting to the Mariners with lower expected ownership and similar upside. They are coming off a huge 8-7 win last night and sit Top 10 in overall runs scored through 27 games. Tonight they get an even better matchup than last night vs. rookie Daniel Wright who has been less than impressive to start his career. Through two starts, he has walked five batters while striking out just three and while he has only allowed three earned runs in nine innings, his 6.25 xFIP suggests will not enjoy the regression that is forthcoming. The Mariners, on the other hand, will be licking their chops for his 90 mph fastball as they are a Top 10 team in wRC+(109), wOBA(.318), and ISO(.175) vs. right-handed pitching. Start your stack at the top of the order with Jean Segura who has heated up big time with hits in seven of his last eight games with three doubles, two home runs and two stolen bases. The M’s shuffle their two-hole around but if it is again Ben Gamel he makes an excellent punt and has hits in four of seven games this season. Then you fill in your power upside with Nelson Cruz who has always been known as a lefty masher but is hitting righties a bit better to start the season. Hitting in front of Cruz is Robinson Cano who hasn’t totally got it going yet with a .270 average but picked up his fifth home run of the season last night and now has driven in 21 runs 27 games.