MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 12

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves: vs. NYM, vs. SD

The Braves have plenty of impressive young talent, including Foltynewicz, who has become one of their best starting pitchers. He had struggled in each of the last two seasons, finishing with an ERA of at least 4.31 and a WHIP of at least 1.30 both years. This season has been a completely different story, though, as he has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across his first 13 starts. One big reason for his improvement has been his increased strikeouts as he has a 10.7 K/9. He gets two excellent matchups in Week 12 against the Mets and Padres, both of which are in the bottom third in the league in runs scored. The Padres also have the second-most strikeouts (627) in baseball.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: at OAK, at KC

The Astros have such a deep starting rotation that McCullers is sometimes overlooked. He doesn’t have the dominant numbers that Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have, but his 3.94 ERA and 3.74 FIP are still valuable. Most of the damage against him this season came in two starts where he allowed a combined 15 runs. He has actually allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 13 starts. He doesn’t allow many base runners with a 1.20 WHIP and he has a 9.1 K/9 as well.  This will be his third time facing the Athletics this season and he handled them well the first two times, allowing two runs to go along with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings. His second start of the week is favorable as well since the Royals have scored the fifth-fewest runs (252) in baseball.

Clay Buchholz, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. PIT, vs. NYM

With Robbie Ray (oblique) on the DL, they had to turn to Buchholz to join the starting rotation. Buchholz certainly had some excellent seasons with the Red Sox earlier in his career, but he had a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his last full season in the majors in 2016. He’s given the Diamondbacks more than they could have expected through his first four starts this year by posting a 1.88 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 7.9 K/9. His 3.35 FIP indicates he hasn’t exactly been as dominant as his numbers look and he’s also been lucky that three of his starts have come against bad offensive teams in the Mets, Giants, and Marlins. The Pirates are no cake walk, but they do have more trouble against right-handed pitchers. He also gets to face the Mets again, leaving him as a viable streaming option who is still available in 63% of Yahoo! leagues.

Blaine Hardy, Detroit Tigers: vs. MIN, at CWS

With the trade of Verlander to the Astros last year, the Tigers officially signaled it was time to rebuild. They entered this season with little starting pitching depth, which became even worse when Jordan Zimmermann (shoulder) and Francisco Liriano (hamstring) went down. Hardy had pitched in relief the last four seasons but has now been forced into the rotation. He’s pitched well in his five starts, recording a 3.81 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. However, he only has a 5.7 K/9 over that stretch and has never been a big strikeout pitcher in his career. Although he has only made five starts this year, he has already faced both the Twins and the White Sox. He allowed two runs and recorded four strikeouts in five innings against the Twins. He was even better against the White Sox, allowing one run and recording six strikeouts in seven innings. The White Sox have the fifth-lowest OPS against lefties (.674) in baseball, so his strong performance against them is not all that surprising. Hardy is still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues and is someone to consider if you are in a deep league.

Starters to Avoid

Daniel Mengden, Oakland Athletics: vs. HOU, vs. LAA

The Athletics have had a lot of problems with their starting rotation this year, but Mengden hasn’t been one of them. His sparkling 1.02 WHIP has helped him post a 3.45 ERA through 13 starts. He has been a bit lucky, though, as opponents have only a .242 BABIP against him. He has also allowed a 37.8% hard-hit rate. His lack of overpowering stuff doesn’t help his cause either, which has resulted in a 5.9 K/9. Both the Astros and Angels are in the top-eight in baseball in runs scored and have had success against Mengden previously this season, making him a risky play for Week 12.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals: at NYY, at TOR

Roark has had an inconsistent career. He had an ERA of 2.85 or lower in 2014 and 2016, but an ERA of at least 4.38 in 2015 and 2017. He’s back to pitching better this season with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His ERA could be on the rise, though, since opponents have just a .245 BABIP. His first matchup for Week 12 is horrible on the road against the Yankees, who mash at Yankee Stadium. The Blue Jays aren’t nearly as potent offensively, but he they do have the eighth-highest home OPS (.746) in baseball. This could be an ugly week.

Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners: vs. LAA, vs. BOS

Leake is on a roll right now, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. His ERA is down to 4.46, but his 1.2 HR/9 and 5.6 K/9 don’t exactly instill confidence moving forward. It should also be noted that three of those starts came against the Twins and the Rays, both of which are in the bottom-third of baseball in runs scored. He’ll get two very tough opponents in the Angels and Red Sox in Week 12, so get him out of your lineup if you have been riding his hot hand.