MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 14

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

James Paxton, Seattle Mariners: at BAL, vs. KC

Paxton continues to serve as the ace of the Mariners’ staff, recording a 3.72 ERA, 3.09 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. He has increased his K/9 each of the last four seasons, topping out at an 11.5 K/9 this year. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing 10 runs over 7.1 innings in his last two starts. They came against the Red Sox and Yankees, though, two of the top offensive teams in baseball. He’ll get the opposite end of the spectrum in Week 14 as the Royals and Orioles are the bottom two teams in baseball in terms of runs scored. The Royals do have the fewest strikeouts in baseball, but that didn’t stop Paxton from striking them out 10 times over six innings in their first meeting this season.

Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers: vs. SD, vs. CWS

Hamels has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, but his 5.14 FIP suggests he hasn’t exactly pitched that well. He’s been aided by a .253 opponents BABIP, which is 30 points lower than his career mark. He has also allowed 1.8 HR/9, which is by far the highest of his career. On the plus side, his strikeout percentage is up from 17.1% last year to 23.4% this season. He may not be the pitcher that he once was in his prime, but he can still provide plenty of value in the right matchup. The Padres and White Sox are both in the bottom-eight in baseball in runs scored and OPS against left-handed pitching, so this could be one of those very productive weeks for Hamels.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates: at NYM, at SD

Taillon’s 4.03 ERA doesn’t look great, but it should be noted that a lot of the damage done to his ERA came in three starts where he allowed 18 runs in 11 innings. He has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his other 12 starts, including in each of his last five outings. His career-high 9.7% swinging strike rate has also resulted in an 8.5 K/9. The Mets don’t have a great lineup, to begin with, but they could be without one of their best hitters in Brandon Nimmo (finger) in Taillon’s first start of the week Monday. His second start comes against a Padres team that has the lowest OPS against right-handed pitchers (.657) in baseball.

Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks: at MIA, vs. SF

Godley has issued 4.4 BB/9, which has helped lead to a bloated 1.49 WHIP. His 4.64 ERA isn’t terrible considering his WHIP, but it’s hard to have consistent success when allowing so many baserunners. He does have strikeout upside with a 9.0 K/9 and he has allowed no more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Marlins have scored the third-fewest runs (283) and have hit the fewest home runs (60) in baseball, setting things up nicely for Godley in his first start of the week. The Giants offense hasn’t been that bad, but they have struck out the fifth-most times (720).

Starters to Avoid

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds: at ATL, vs. MIL

Mahle has a respectable 3.89 ERA, but several of his supporting numbers raise causes for concern. He has a 4.90 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP, with the WHIP being especially scary when you consider his 1.7 HR/9. He has also allowed a 41.5% hard-hit rate. Even though he held the Braves to three runs and recorded 11 strikeouts over six innings in their first meeting this season, the Braves have a very tough lineup that has scored the fifth-most runs (378). He was lucky to only allow two runs over five innings in his first start this season against the Brewers because he allowed 11 baserunners in that outing. This might be the week to place him on your bench.

Jakob Junis, Kansas City Royals: vs. LAA, at SEA

The wheels are starting to fall off for Junis, who has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in four June starts. His opponents’ BABIP wasn’t terribly high over that stretch either at .300, but he allowed seven home runs in 24 innings. As a result of his recent poor performance, he now has a 4.43 ERA and a 4.98 FIP on the season overall. The Angels have hit the fourth-most home runs (107) in baseball and the Mariners have put up some big offensive numbers lately, making Junis too much of a risk for Week 14.

Jonathan Loaisiga, New York Yankees: at PHI, vs. BOS

With the Yankees down two starting pitchers, they had to recall Loaisiga from Double-A to help fill out their rotation. His 4.32 ERA in Double-A was nothing to write home about, but he showed tremendous strikeout upside with an 11.5 K/9 and excellent control with a 1.1 BB/9. He had six strikeouts over five scoreless innings in his first start against the Rays but allowed three runs in only 3.2 innings in his second start against the Mariners. Getting to play the Phillies in Philadelphia where there is no DH isn’t necessarily a poor matchup, but his second start against the Red Sox makes him someone to avoid altogether.