MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 16

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
July special! Use Code MCMLB50 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins: vs. KC, vs. TB

Berrios has allowed five home runs in his last two starts and has had problems keeping hitters inside the park, in general, this year with a 1.3 HR/9. However, he still has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.39 FIP because he has kept runners off base with a 1.00 WHIP. He had control issues when he was first called up, but he’s thrown a first-pitch strike to 65.6% of the batters that he has faced and has a 2.0 BB/9 this year. He also has career highs in swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and K/9 (9.0). His first start in Week 16 against the Royals is an excellent matchup considering they have hit the fewest home runs (70) and scored the fewest runs (310) in baseball. The Rays aren’t much better as they have the fifth-fewest home runs (79) and the fifth-fewest runs scored (347).

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs: at SF, at SD

Hendricks has never finished with an ERA over 3.96 or a FIP over 3.88 in his career, but he has a 4.27 ERA and a 4.80 FIP this season. Not only would his 1.25 WHIP be the highest of his career, but so would his 1.5 HR/9. He’s never been an overpowering pitcher, but he has just a 6.7 K/9. He’s allowed 13 runs over 13.1 innings in his last three starts, but his fortunes could change this week since both the Giants and the Padres are in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored. He has yet to face the Padres this year, but he allowed only one run and recorded seven strikeouts over seven innings in his lone start against the Giants. You shouldn’t count on him for strikeouts, but he can still provide value in Week 16.

Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies: at NYM, at MIA

Eflin was supposed to start twice in Week 15 but left his first start with a blister issue. The Phillies decided to give him an extra day of rest for his next outing, pushing him from Sunday to Monday. He was rolling before suffering the blister against the Orioles, allowing two runs and recording six strikeouts in seven innings. He’s having by far the best season of his young career, posting a 2.97 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 1.08 WHIP over 11 starts. Not only does he get to face the aforementioned poor Marlins lineup, but the Mets have been even worse, scoring the third-fewest runs (336). As long as his blister doesn’t cause further issues, this is shaping up to be an excellent week for Eflin.

Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers: at MIA, at PIT

Chacin has been a good addition to the Brewers starting staff, posting a 3.63 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 1.29 WHIP across 19 starts. He has only allowed 0.6 HR/9, which is nothing new considering he has a 0.8 HR/9 for his career. That’s especially impressive considering he spent six seasons having to pitch in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies. The Marlins have had a couple of big offensive performances lately, but they have still scored four runs or fewer in 8 of their last 13 games. The Pirates offense is middle of the pack at best, setting up Chacin with the potential for two strong performances. He is still available in 67% of Yahoo! leagues, so pick him up if you are looking to stream someone.

Starters to Avoid

Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners: at LAA, at COL

Leake was stellar for the Mariners in June, recording a 2.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in six starts. He was aided by a .225 opponents BABIP though and even with that hot stretch, he still has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP for the season overall. He’s never provided many strikeouts and this season has been no different with a 5.6 K/9. Leake has already faced the Angels three times this year and while he did have one good start where he allowed one run in six innings, he allowed seven runs (six earned) over 9.1 innings in the other two. It doesn’t get any easier having to pitch in Coors Field for his second start of the week, so this is not the week to take a chance on putting Leake into your lineup.

Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: vs. ARI, vs. SEA

Like many of the Rockies’ pitchers, Anderson struggles to pitch in Coors Field. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP on the road this year, but a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP at home. He has thrown seven fewer innings at home, but he has allowed three more home runs there than he has on the road. The Diamondbacks have had much more success against lefties with a .762 OPS this year and hammered Anderson for seven runs over 2.1 innings in their first meeting. The Mariners won’t have the use of the DH playing in the National League, but they still have a potent offense that can score in bunches. Keep Anderson on your bench.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: at ATL, at BOS

Stroman got off to an abysmal start this season, then landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. He put together two strong starts upon first being activated, but was rocked for six runs over 4.2 innings in his last outing against the Mets. Things get much harder for him this week against the Braves and the Red Sox as both teams are in the top-six in baseball in runs scored. The Red Sox have also hit the second-most home runs (128). This has the potential to be a really rough Week 16 for Stroman.