MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 22

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. SF, vs. WAS

Not much has gone right for the Mets this season, but Wheeler has made significant improvements. After finishing with a 5.21 ERA and a 5.03 FIP in 2017, he has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.43 FIP this year. Not only has he reduced his WHIP from 1.59 to 1.23, but he’s only allowed 0.8 HR/9 compared to 1.6 HR/9 last year. He’s on a hot streak right now, as well, allowing five runs and recording 30 strikeouts over 33 innings in his last five starts. His first start of Week 22 is a fantastic matchup considering the Giants have the third-lowest OPS on the road (.664) in baseball. The Nationals are certainly a tougher opponent, but they’ve only averaged 4.4 runs over their last 10 games.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox: vs. MIN, at DET

Rodon enters Week 22 having allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight starts. He has a sparkling 2.69 ERA overall, but his 4.17 FIP and .210 opponents’ BABIP would suggest luck has been on his side. His 7.2 K/9 is by far the lowest mark of his career, but his 9.7% swinging-strike rate is almost right on par with his career average. Some regression might be in his future, but it’s not likely to start this week. The Twins have the sixth-lowest OPS against lefties (.683) and the Tigers have scored the fourth-fewest runs overall (484) in the league.

Kevin Gausman, Atlanta Braves: at PIT, at MIA

Gausman has shown improvement since joining the Braves, allowing five runs across 19 innings in three starts. He only had 12 total strikeouts, but it’s very encouraging that he also allowed just one home run. Homers have been a problem for him this season since he’s allowed 1.4 HR/9 overall. The move from the American League to the National League can provide a big boost for pitchers, which could be the case even more so for Gausman since he was pitching in the AL East. Both the Pirates and the Marlins are in the bottom-third in baseball in home runs and the Marlins struggle to score runs, in general, leaving Gausman with the potential for a valuable week.

Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies: vs. SD, vs. STL

Anderson isn’t exactly at the top of his game right now as he’s allowed 21 runs over 20.1 innings in his last four starts. It’s no coincidence that three of those outings came on the road. Anderson actually has thrived pitching at Coors Field, posting a 3.47 ERA there compared to a 5.37 ERA on the road. He had similar splits last year with a 5.44 ERA on the road and a 4.14 ERA at home. The Padres struggle to score runs and have the second-most strikeouts (1,190) in baseball, leaving Anderson with a great matchup in his first start of the week. The Cardinals will be a tougher foe, but Anderson is still available in 69% of Yahoo! leagues and is someone to consider streaming if you need a starter.

Starters to Avoid

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: at BOS, at KC

Bieber has an unsightly 1.41 WHIP this season, but he’s been extremely unlucky with opponents posting a .372 BABIP against him. He has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate, though, an area he’ll need to improve on to start lowering that BABIP. He has shown good control by issuing 2.0 BB/9 to go along with a 9.4 K/9. His second start of the week against the Royals stands out as a great matchup, but he’ll have to face the Red Sox in Fenway Park first. The Red Sox have the second-highest OPS at home (.829) and the highest OPS against righties (.816), which could prove disastrous for Bieber. It might be wise to keep him anchored to your bench as a result.

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox: vs. CLE, at TB

Eovaldi started off his Red Sox tenure with a bang, throwing 15 shutouts innings in his first two starts. His last two haven’t gone nearly as well as he allowed 11 runs (five earned) across 7.2 innings. His 1.04 WHIP overall this season would be the best mark of his career, but it’s been aided by an abnormally low .265 opponents’ BABIP. The Indians present a dangerous matchup because even though they haven’t been as good offensively on the road, they still have the third-most runs scored (628) in baseball. The Rays aren’t a bad matchup, but with Eovaldi having to face the Indians and his general lack of strikeout upside, he may not be worth the risk.

Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres: at COL, at LAD

Erlin has pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, but he’s done a nice job with a 3.33 ERA that is supported by a 3.12 FIP. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, but he’s not someone to consider streaming this week. The Rockies have a .812 OPS at home and a .803 OPS against left-handed pitchers, both of which are in the top-three in baseball. Facing the Dodgers won’t be much easier as they have scored the seventh-most runs (594) in the league.