MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 4

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The weather continues to wreak havoc on baseball, but the best we can do is plan for the scheduled week ahead. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. SF, vs. SD

Corbin is off to a stellar start in 2018, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 through three starts. His FIP is even better at 1.97 and it’s not like he’s been getting lucky as opponents have a .306 BABIP so far. His career K/9 is just 8.0 though, so don’t expect him to be able to keep up this insane strikeout rate. The good news this week is he gets two starts at home, so no need to worry about any weather issues at Chase Field. He also gets two excellent matchups, especially his first start against the Giants, who have scored the third-fewest runs (46) in baseball so far.

Luis Severino, New York Yankees: vs. MIA, vs. TOR

The Red Sox touched up Severino for five runs in his last start, but he still recorded six strikeouts in that game and has a 10.0 K/9 through three starts. He emerged as one of the elite pitchers in baseball in 2017, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. He allowed just 2.4 BB/9 and held opponents to a 29.4% hard-hit rate. As long as the weather holds up, Monday brings a start against the lowly Marlins, who are batting just .227 with eight home runs as a team. His second start comes against a Blue Jays lineup with much more power, but he held them to one hit while recording seven strikeouts on Opening Day.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: at SEA, at CWS

Don’t read too much into McCullers’ 7.71 ERA, a lot of that was because he allowed eight runs in 3.2 innings in his last start against the Twins. Opponents also have an insanely high .485 BABIP against him. His FIP sits at 3.77 and he’s been an excellent source for strikeouts with a 14.8 K/9. He posted a K/9 of at least 10 in both of the last two seasons. He also does a great job keeping hitters in the park with a career 0.7 HR/9. If you were thinking about benching him based on his last blowup, don’t be. He should rebound in a big way with this two-start week.

Francisco Liriano, Detroit Tigers: vs. BAL, vs. KC

Liriano made the rebuilding Tigers rotation out of spring training and has a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through two starts. With a 4.16 FIP and paltry 5.0 K/9 though, he screams regression candidate. While it’s coming at some point, you might be able to squeeze two more good starts out of him this week. First, he’ll face the Orioles, who have the most strikeouts (177) and second-lowest team batting average (.216) in baseball. Then he’ll take on a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs (39) in baseball. Most of their better hitters are left-handed as well, which is good news for Liriano since he held lefties to a .286 wOBA in 2017. Still available in 89% of Yahoo! leagues, Liriano is a viable streaming option for Week 4.

Starters to Avoid

David Price, Boston Red Sox: at LAA, at OAK

Price left his last start against the Yankees after feeling “a sensation” in his left hand. He said he hasn’t experienced any issues since, but it is a bit concerning considering he dealt with an elbow issue last year. When healthy, Price is really tough on lefties, holding them to a .228 wOBA in 2017. Righties game him more trouble though, posting a .301 wOBA. The Angels and Athletics both have a lot of good right-handed hitters who perform well against lefties, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Price struggles this week.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: vs. STL, at COL

Chatwood is not off to a good start with his new team, posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.82 WHIP through two starts. Opponents do have a .364 BABIP though while posting just a 17.6% hard-hit rate, so expect his numbers to improve as the season moves on. I was very high on him heading into the season and still am, but not in Week 4. The Cardinals are in the top-10 in the league in runs scored and his second start of the week brings his old nemesis Coors Field. He was awful pitching there as a member of the Rockies last year, recording a 6.01 ERA in 70.1 innings. Put him on your bench this week.

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets: vs. WAS, at ATL

The Mets are on cloud nine right now after a 12-2 start. Their pitching has been a big reason for their success with a league-best 2.58 team ERA. Wheeler’s first start of the season couldn’t have gone much better, allowing one run on two hits to go along with seven strikeouts in seven innings. However, it came against the Marlins. He’ll face two much tougher lineups this week, especially a Braves team that has scored the fourth-most runs (82) and is hitting for the fourth-highest average (.270) in baseball. Wheeler might provide value at times this season, but buyer beware for Week 4.