DFS MLB Picks for 04/27/17

*Chris Durell*

DFS MLB Picks – Thursday, April 27th

Welcome back for another Thursday of DFS MLB Picks. We have a  bit of a whacky one today with a six-game early slate and four-game main slate.

**Starting Pitchers**

Noah Syndergaard
Opponent – vs. ATL
Park – Citi Field(Pitcher Positive)
Vegas Favorite (NYM -220)
Vegas Total (7)

Whether you are playing the Early or All-Day slate today, Thor makes an elite play on both sites. He tops the salary ranks on FanDuel but comes in just behind Chris Sale on DraftKings making it even more enticing. He was scheduled to start yesterday but was pushed back to Thursday to keep the Mets rotation in check. He gave up a season-high seven hits and three earned runs in his last start but also had a season-high ten strikeouts vs. the Phillies. Thor has yet to walk a batter in four starts and has an elite ERA of 1.73 and backs it up with an equally elite xFIP of 1.92 on the season. Thursday he faces a Braves team that ranks 22nd in wOBA(.299) and wRC+(85) vs. right-handed pitching. He is an elite play in all formats.

EDIT:  As of this morning Thor has been scratched, feel free to replace him with Matt Harvey.

Julio Urias
Opponent – @ SF
Park – AT&T Park (Pitcher Positive)
Vegas (LAD -135)
Vegas Total (7.5)

After making three starts in the Triple-A to start the season, the Dodgers have called up Urias to join the rotation for the rest of the season. In his three minor league starts, his numbers were very close to what we saw in his limited stint with the Dodgers last season. He was striking out about 9.5 batters per nine innings but struggled with control and posted a 5.79 BB/9 in his three starts. He was able to keep the ERA in the sub 2.00 range which won’t be realistic in the early going if he continues to walk batters at a high clip. The good news is he is only 20 years old with a ton of raw talent and K upside that is perfect for DFS purposes. In his first start with the Dodgers tonight he gets a plus matchup vs. the struggling Giants who are 8-14 on the season and rank 25th in wOBA(.282) and 24th in wRC+(79) against left-handed pitching. Urias makes an excellent boom or bust GPP play tonight.

**Stacks**

Arizona Diamondbacks
Park – Chase Field(Hitter Positive)
Vegas (ARI -155)
Vegas Total (10.5)

While fading one of Coors or Chase Field is a great idea for GPP’s, fading both can absolutely kill your upside on a given night. I lean the Diamondbacks tonight at home for one simple reason. They get to face Jered Weaver who probably shouldn’t have an MLB starting job in 2017, but that’s just my opinion. I mean, as a DFS player I love it as he is nothing but a gas can and perfect target to stack against. So far in four starts this year he has given up 11 earned runs(10 earned) in just 23 innings pitched while striking out just 13 batters(5.09 K/9). That is not going to strike fear into any opponent, especially the power hitting D-Backs led by Paul Goldschmidt. Weaver has also given up SEVEN home runs already. Look for that number to grow tonight as the D-Backs have been operating with a .238 ISO over the last seven days with ten home runs.

Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros(Mike Fiers)
Park – Progressive Field (Hitter Positive)
Vegas (CLE -170)
Vegas Total (8.5)

It’s time for another Fier sale tonight. That’s right, My top stack outside of Coors Field will be the Cleveland Indians tonight who get to face one of the worst pitchers on the slate in a hitter friendly park. Fiers has a slightly above average K rate(7.8 K/9) but has allowed six home runs and a 40%+ hard contact rate in each of his first three starts. That is perfect for targeting the Indians today as they rank 4th overall in wOBA(.340) and wRC+(122) vs. right-handed pitching. If you are looking for some separation in your lineups, it is a great night to target the Indians with very high totals in at both Chase Field and Coors Field.