MLB Lineup Optimizer Stacks for 04/13/17
Chris Durell
Welcome back for another season of daily fantasy baseball. I am very excited to be joining the Lineup Lab team once again in 2017 to provide you, the readers, with some insight into my favorite plays and strategy. To start things off, I will be providing you with a couple pitching options and a couple of stacks to help you get your lineups started.
My process each day (or night depending on when I write the article) is to open up the Player Lab and start breaking down the matchups. Lineup Lab has continued to upgrade their tools making it very easy to narrow down your picks on a daily basis. They offer sortable and filterable columns such as wind speed, salary, PTS/$, Vegas O/U, wOBA splits, ERA splits, park factors and much more. Here is a sneak peek of what you will see in the Player Lab.
Starting Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants
Opponent – vs. Colorado Rockies
Park – AT&T Park
Vegas Favorite – SF(-155)
Vegas Total – 6.5 Runs
He is the most expensive option on both sites and by a wide margin, especially on FanDuel. On DraftKings where we have to roster two pitchers, I don’t think there is any reason to fade Mad Bum tonight at home vs. the Rockies. He is off to a so-so start through two games with a 0-1 record but has struck out 16 batters in just 15 innings and that is exactly what we are looking for. The Rockies currently sit middle of the pack(15th) in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching but the big number is the 26% K rate they come in with and now face an elite southpaw. I will be using Bumgarner in all formats.
Robert Gsellman – New York Mets
Opponent – @ Miami Marlins
Park – Marlins Park
Vegas – NYM +125
Vegas Total – 8
Before you go calling me crazy for targeting an underdog, hear me out; The Mets are red hot winning four straight games and have yet to lose on the road(3-0). Gsellman made his first start of the season last Saturday vs. the Marlins (why I suspect they are dogs today) but in five innings did strike out seven batters but was hurt by a home run. Looking at his numbers last season, it is also promising as he finished with a 2.42 ERA and respectable 3.38 xFIP and 8.5 K/9 rate in eight appearances (seven starts). He is most certainly risky but should be low owned on a small slate and provides some nice salary relief.
Stack
Cincinnati Reds vs. Jimmy Nelson(MIL)
Vegas – CIN +100
Vegas Total – 9
I love both sides of this game but will be leaning the Reds tonight as my main stack. Looking at the early season numbers, the Reds rank sixth overall in wRC+(109) vs. right-handed pitching and are striking out less than 18% of the time. In comparison, the Brewers are striking out a league high 29.5% of the time and rank 22nd overall in wRC+(77). The top of the Reds lineup has two speedsters who can steal multiple bases and they are followed by some power hitters in Votto and Duvall. With Nelson looking good in his first start this season, it should also help suppress the ownership of the Reds stack a bit, even if on a small slate.