NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – Quarterbacks
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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The NFL season is finally here! Along with it comes another exciting year of daily fantasy football. We’ll be doing things a little differently as we look to help you fatten your wallet. We’ll be churning out four articles a week, including one each for quarterbacks, runnings backs, wide receivers and a combined piece for tight ends and defenses/special teams.
In each article, we’ll highlight some players that work for cash or GPP contents. We’ll also highlight some players to avoid as your craft your lineup. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Tom Brady vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – Gillette Stadium
FanDuel = $8,600
DraftKings = $7,200
Brady had another stellar campaign in 2017, finishing with 4,577 passing yards and 32 touchdowns. It marked the sixth time in the last seven seasons that he finished with at least 4,100 yards with the only time he didn’t reach that plateau being the 2016 season when he played only 12 games due to a suspension. He also threw just eight interceptions, marking his fourth-straight season with less than 10 picks.
There has been a lot of talk heading into Week 1 about the Patriots lack of wide receivers with Julian Edelman suspended. Chris Hogan will lead that unit for now, but Brady still has star tight end Rob Gronkowski at his disposal. He also has excellent pass-catching running backs in James White and Rex Burkhead. He’ll get a favorable matchup right out of the gates against a Texans defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game last year to opposing quarterbacks. They did add safety Tyrann Mathieu during the offseason, but their secondary is still ranked 25th by Pro Football Focus. Brady is a safe bet to have a productive Week 1.
Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $6,800
The Saints turned to a more run-heavy offense last season, which resulted in a down performance from Brees. He had a stellar 72% completion percentage, but his 536 pass attempts were his lowest mark since 2009. He also threw just 23 touchdown passes, breaking a streak of nine consecutive seasons with at least 30. On a positive note, he only threw eight interceptions, his fewest since 2004.
The Saints’ running game last year was led by the two-headed monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Ingram will be suspended for the first four games of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Saints relied a little more on the passing game to help spell Kamara. The Saints not only have star wideout Michael Thomas, but they also added Cameron Meredith to go along with Ted Ginn Jr. A healthy Ben Watson could be a sneaky valuable weapon at tight end, as well. The Buccaneers have the 31st ranked secondary according to Pro Football Focus, leaving Brees with a high floor for this contest.
Cam Newton vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $6,900
Although Newton’s 59.1% completion percentage last year was a significant improvement from 2016, it still resulted in his fourth straight season with a completion percentage under 60%. His 3,302 passing yards were his lowest total since 2014 and he threw 16 interceptions compared to 22 touchdowns. He was a tremendous weapon in the rushing attack, though, gaining a career-high 754 yards on the ground. He also finished with six rushing scores and has at least five rushing touchdowns in every season of his career.
Part of the reason for Newton’s poor passing numbers last year may have been due to his lack of weapons. Greg Olsen missed much of the season due to injury and the Panthers were very thin at wide receiver. Olsen enters this season healthy and they added Torrey Smith and rookie D.J. Moore to go along with the emerging Devin Funchess at wide receiver. While Newton might not have as high of a ceiling as Brady and Brees, his ability to run the ball gives him a high floor most weeks.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Philip Rivers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,400
Rivers is still posting big numbers as he enters his 16th season in the NFL. He finished 2017 with 4,515 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. He also attempted at least 570 passes and had a completion percentage of at least 60% for the fourth straight season. If you play season-long fantasy, he’s one of the more underrated safe bets to provide valuable numbers at the quarterback position.
He enters this season with plenty of weapons around him. Keenan Allen has been one of the best wide receivers in the league and promising young wide receiver Mike Williams is finally healthy heading into this year, providing Rivers with another big red zone target. The Chargers lost Hunter Henry to a torn ACL, but just brought back Antonio Gates, who has developed a great relationship with Rivers over their long careers together. The Chiefs were tied for the eighth-most fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last year and might be even worse in 2018 after trading star cornerback Marcus Peters to the Rams.
Andy Dalton vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,800
Dalton had what may have been the worst season of his career last year. He averaged a career-low 207.5 yards per game and his 59.9% completion percentage was his worst mark since his rookie campaign. He only had 15 combined interceptions in 2015 and 2016, but he threw 12 picks last year.
The Bengals offense could be better this season with Joe Mixon looking to break out in his second season in the league. They still have star receiver A.J. Green to go with an emerging John Ross, who opened some eyes in the preseason. Don’t be surprised if they have a huge Week 1 against the Colts, who have the league’s worst secondary according to Pro Football Focus. At this cheap price, Dalton has the potential to provide significant value.
Case Keenum vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,100
Keenum earned a starting role with the Vikings last year and helped lead them into the playoffs. Although his 3,547 passing yards wasn’t off the charts, he had a 67.6% completion percentage to go along with 22 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. The Vikings made a big splash bringing in Kirk Cousins during the offseason, which ultimately resulted in Keenum joining the Broncos.
Keenum had two extremely talented pass catchers with the Vikings in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. He’ll see a downgrade at that position with the Broncos, but Demaryius and Emmanuel Sanders are still a formidable duo. They also drafted the very promising Courtland Sutton and should have a solid rushing attack with Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. The “Legion of Boom” era is a thing of the past in Seattle as their secondary looks susceptible this year, especially with Earl Thomas still holding out. Even if Thomas does return to the team before this game, Keenum still has some upside in tournament play.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,100
DraftKings = $5,700
Jimmy Garopplo started off his career with the 49ers in style. He only played in six games, five of which were starts, but he averaged 260 yards per contest. His seven passing touchdowns weren’t great, but he had a 67.4% completion percentage and showed a glimpse of what many believe is a bright future in the NFL. However, he draws a tough matchup this week against a very stout Vikings defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year. There will be plenty of weeks that you want to roll with Garoppolo for your entry, but this might not be one of them.
Patrick Mahomes II vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,000
The Chiefs dealt Alex Smith to the Redskins to replace Cousins, handing over the reins to Mahomes. Selected 10th overall in the 2017 draft, it was only a matter of time before Mahomes took over the starting quarterback job. He has a big arm with talented playmakers around him including Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt, which should serve him well. However, he could be turnover prone and may go through some growing pains. Although cornerback Jason Verrett has already been lost for the season with a torn Achilles, the Chargers still have an extremely talented secondary and an excellent pass rush anchored by Joey Bosa. I’d much rather take a chance on someone like Dalton rather than Mahomes if you want to go with a cheap quarterback in tournament play.