NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 1 – Quarterbacks

The long wait is finally over! The month of September is here, and with it, comes the start of the NFL season. That also means we have some DFS fun to partake in. Let’s start out by breaking down the quarterback position for Week 1. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our NFL Lineup Optimizer to help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH TARGETS

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAC
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $7,200

Mahomes had a season for the ages last year. Tasked with the starting quarterback job for the first time in his young career, he finished with 5,097 passing yards and a staggering 50 touchdown passes. With stellar receiving options Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce still in the fold this season, Mahomes has both the highest ceiling and highest floor in fantasy of any quarterback. Facing the Jaguars on the road is no easy task, but with how prolific he was last season, expect Mahomes to be one of the chalk quarterbacks of this slate.

Rusell Wilson, SEA vs. CIN
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $6,300

There is no question that the Seahawks like to run the ball. That resulted in Wilson attempting only 427 passes last year, which was his lowest mark since the 2013 season. The good news is that he made his opportunities count, logging 35 touchdown passes. That marked the third time in the last four seasons that he has thrown for at least 34 scores. Another plus to his limited pass attempts is that he only threw seven interceptions. Despite the Seahawks dealing with injuries to David Moore (shoulder) and DK Metcalf (knee), this is still a matchup for Wilson to exploit at home against the underwhelming Bengals’ defense. In fact, I prefer him over Mahomes in cash contests, especially given their price difference on DraftKings.

GPP TARGETS

Jameis Winston, TB vs. SF
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,600

Last season was one to forget for Winston, who lost his job at one point to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Despite playing in only 11 games, he threw 14 interceptions. That came on the heels of a 2017 campaign in which he also struggled with turnovers, throwing 11 picks in just 13 games. On the bright side, he still threw for almost 3,000 yards despite playing so few games last year and he produced 19 touchdown passes. He has a ton of weapons at receiver, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and emerging tight end O.J. Howard. The Bucs don’t have much to speak of at running back, which should also force them to rely more on Winston. The 49ers’ secondary is ranked 29th by Pro Football Focus, so look for Winston to start things off on a high note.

Lamar Jackson, BAL at MIA
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,000

Jackson is certainly not the traditional passing quarterback. Across the seven games in which he started last season, he averaged only 159.1 yards through the air per contest. He also had just five passing touchdowns compared to three interceptions. However, he provided tremendous value with his legs, accumulating 556 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns during that same stretch. The Ravens have now had an entire offseason to build the offense around him, so don’t be surprised if Jackson improves in the passing game. If that happens, he could be a special fantasy option. Facing the stripped-down Dolphins this week makes him an extremely appealing target.

Josh Allen, BUF at NYJ
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $5,600

Like Jackson, Allen provided plenty of production with his legs last year. In fact, he even had a stretch in which he rushed for at least 99 yards in three straight games. He also produced eight rushing touchdowns while his 21 rushing attempts inside the red zone tied him for second-most at the quarterback position. The problem was he only produced 10 touchdowns through the air while throwing 12 interceptions. He also struggled with his accuracy, recording a 52.8 percent completion rate. The Bills made some key additions to try and help his development as a passer, bringing in deep threat John Brown and reliable slot receiver Cole Beasley. The Jets cornerback group leaves a lot to be desired, so don’t be surprised if Allen comes away with a valuable performance here.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Eli Manning, NYG at DAL
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $5,000

Manning had a career-high 66 percent completion percentage last year, but a lot of that was due to him dumping off short passes. His average depth of target was only 7.6 yards, which, for perspective, was even lower than Case Keenum’s average (7.9). The Giants have improved their offensive line, but Manning doesn’t have many weapons at wide receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. now on the Browns and Golden Tate suspended for the first four games of the season. Even at this cheap price, he’s not worth the risk.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs. BAL
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,900

Fitzpatrick got off to a hot start with the Bucs last year, recording 11 touchdown passes across his first three games. However, he only logged six touchdowns in his subsequent five games while throwing eight interceptions. He beat out Josh Rosen for the starting job on the Dolphins to open the season, although it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them turn the reigns over to the younger Rosen at some point. Fitzpatrick has the ability to light up the scoreboard whenever he steps onto the field, but he can also kill a DFS lineup with his turnovers. The Ravens have the top-ranked secondary according to Pro Football Focus, so this is not one of those times to take a chance on Fitzpatrick to provide some Fitzmagic.

Author Bio:

Mike has been covering fantasy sports since 2007, joining Lineup Lab in 2017. An avid player of both season-long fantasy leagues and DFS, Mike’s work has appeared on numerous sites, including RotoWire, SportsLine and Sports Illustrated. He’s also been featured on DraftKings’ nightly show, The Sweat, and was a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.