NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 11/02/16
Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.
What We Learned
It was another week riddled with injuries across the board, so this week I am going to start out by highlighting a few situations to monitor going into Week 9 in the NFL.
Jacquizz Rodgers sprained his foot in Sunday’s game and will miss this week’s Thursday night game. Unfortunately, this isn’t going to lead to a clear value play as the Bucs will run a committee of Antone Smith, Peyton Barber and Mike James. Good luck pinpointing one guy out of that group.
Spencer Ware suffered a concussion in the first half of last week’s game against the Colts and didn’t return. He is now in the concussion protocol and sitting with a questionable tag for a Week 9 matchup against the Jaguars. If he is ruled out you can almost lock
Charcandrick West into your lineups at a big discount on both sites. Jamaal Charles has been placed on injured reserve.
DeMarco Murray is day to day after sustaining a toe injury in the game vs. the Jaguars last Thursday night. He played through the injury and it didn’t seem to bother him much finishing with 123 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Derrick Henry also made an impact getting 16 carries himself and turning them into 60 yards and a touchdown. If Murray is out Henry will be close to must play in a matchup vs. the Chargers who rank 18th in Defense vs. the rush when looking at the Player Lab Tool.
From a defensive side of things the Cowboys took a big hit Sunday night losing defensive backs Morris Claiborne and Barry Church for at least the next three weeks. They matchup vs. the Browns this week so there could be a ton value in Terrelle Pryor.
Julio Jones struggled through a bone bruise on his knee on Sunday and claimed it won’t be an issue. On a short week, I would avoid Julio on Thursday night. If he plays vs. the Bucs he could be nothing more than a decoy with the target share once again falling to Mohamed Sanu.
Martellus Bennett left the field a few times with an ongoing ankle injury which has put even more emphasis on elite TE Rob Gronkowski who has not disappointed.
The Colts could be in for a long day on Sunday afternoon if CB Vontae Davis misses the game. He sustained a concussion vs. the Chiefs and is in the NFL concussion protocol. The Colts already rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass and get a scary matchup vs. the red hot Aaron Rodgers.
Looking back at last week’s analysis it was pretty disappointing as the I told you to target the Raiders defense and then also mentioned the Tampa Bay stack later in the week. Jameis Winston and Mike Evans couldn’t take advantage of a great matchup as Winston only mustered 180 yards and two touchdowns while Evans only caught four of his 11 targets. The eyeball test watching film shows Winston was locked on to Evans making it easy for the defense to shut him down. Value play Cameron Brate came through with a 4th Quarter touchdown but only caught three of five targets for 22 yards.
I also mentioned targeting the Colts run defense last week which was a complete mess as six rushers combined for just 88 yards, while starting RB Spencer Ware went down with an injury. Then Alex Smith had a concussion then didn’t have a concussion which lead to Nick Foles completing 16 of 22 for 223 yards and two touchdowns.
Even if the results were not there with the Bucs and Chiefs, I believe the process was correct in targeting those teams and will continue to do so moving forward. Trust the process!!
Everything wasn’t bad last week as Aaron Rodgers continued his hot streak with four touchdown passes and his highest fantasy output of the season. Jordy Nelson bounced back catching four of his nine nine targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery sat out so we saw Rodgers spread the ball around as we saw touchdowns from Trevor Davis, Geronimo Allison and *Jeff Janis**. WHO? Again, moving on!
We had a scare last week with the DEF/RB stack as Devontae Booker exited at one point with a shoulder injury but played through it rushing 19 times for 54 yards and scoring a touchdown while catching five of his six targets for 30 yards. The defense more than hit value picking up three interceptions, four sacks and a defensive touchdown equalling 22 fantasy points on both sites.
Game Balls of the Week
This section will highlight some of the top fantasy performers from the previous week, in no particular order or ranking.
Derek Carr went off for 513 pass yards and four touchdowns in 30-24 win over the Bucs. He spread the ball around to ten different receivers including offensive tackle Donald Penn who caught a goal line touchdown. Carr has now lead the Raiders to a very impressive 5-0 road record. MVP candidate?
Can’t be giving game balls away without mentioning Amari Cooper who was a huge benefactor of Carr’s big day catching 12 of his 15 targets for a career-high 173 yards and also added a touchdown.
If we are talking MVP candidates it’s hard to pan over Tom Brady’s name despite missing four games. He put up his third 300+ passing yard game this past Sunday vs. the Bills and added four touchdowns. He now has 1,319 yards, 12 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions in four games.
Rob Gronkowski had another big day catching five balls for 104 yards and a touchdown making it four straight games with a touchdown or 100+ yards receiving.
The Panthers got back on track in a win over the Cardinals on the back of Jonathan Stewart who carried the ball 25 times for 94 yards, reaching the endzone twice.
Rookie Ezekiel Elliott didn’t reach the endzone this week but still looked dominant. He rushed 22 times for 96 yards and also caught all four of his targets for 52 yards.
Sticking with “America’s Team” we saw Dez Bryant return to action and while he only caught four of his 14 targets, he accumulated 114 yards and a touchdown.
Defense vs. Position Rankings
Target the Indianapolis Colts in the Pass Game
This week’s Matchup – Green Bay Packers
Things aren’t looking good for Colts this week. Looking at the Player Lab Tool they rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass and may be without top corner Vontae Davis who is currently in the NFL’s concussion protocol. No matter who the Packers put out there at WR this week, Aaron Rodgers should have a field day at home in Lambo Field.
Target the Cleveland Browns in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Dallas Cowboys & Ezekiel Elliott
The league leader in rushing, Ezekiel Elliott comes to the Dawg Pound. The Browns can be targeted in every facet of the game but we will be concentrating on the run game this week for a few reasons. First of all, Ezekiel Elliott comes to the Dawg Pound leading the league in rushing with 799 yards and five touchdowns while also catching 15 of his 19 targets for an added 150 yards receiving. He will have a great shot to add to those totals against the 30th ranked team when looking at Defense vs. the Rush on the Player Lab Tool. Game flow is also in his favor as the Cowboys are early seven-point home favorites.
Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football brings us an NFC South matchup between the 1st place Falcons and the 2nd place Buccaneers. The game opens up as one of the highest projected totals (51) of the week as the 25th and 26th ranked defenses in yards allowed per game meet.
The Falcons open as 3.5 point road favorites and have a much more balanced offensive attack lead by QB Matt Ryan who leads the league in passing yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19). His #1 target Julio Jones checked out fine after dealing with a bone bruise last week. Even with a few bad outings, Julio sits 2nd in receiving behind AJ Green with 859 yards and four touchdowns. The Falcons have a nice two headed monster at RB but with Tevin Coleman still nursing an injury, Devonta Freeman becomes a top option if you are playing a Thursday to Monday slate.
The Bucs are coming off a home loss to the Raiders and make a much better option for GPP’s as recency bias will most definitely come into play. Jameis Winston can’t be trusted in cash games as he has been a boom or bust play, completing just 58% of his passes cut has the upside with elite WR Mike Evans on his side vs. the Falcons and their 23rd ranked Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool. With RB Jacquizz Rodgers expected to miss Thursday’s game it leaves the Bucs with a less than ideal committee in the backfield which should lead to more volume in the pass game.
Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab