NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 11/16/16

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.

What We Learned

It was an up and down week for me batting around .500 with last week’s recommendations. It all started with the idea of targeting the Saints passing defense. It started out right on track as Trevor Siemian drove the Broncos offense down the field to score a touchdown on the opening drive. Things went downhill from there as he couldn’t get the downfield game going and relied too heavily on the dink and dunk which lead to completing just 25 of 40 pass attempts for 258 yards. He did throw two touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. Demaryius Thomas lead the way as the top receiver catching eight of 11 balls for 87 yards and a touchdown. It was Thomas’ fifth straight week with double-digit targets. I will continue to target the Saints in the passing game; I will just pick and choose my quarterback a little more wisely when doing so.

The ultimate chalk call of the week ended up paying off at the end of the day but it wasn’t in the most conventional of ways. Things didn’t look promising for David Johnson early as the 49ers looked like a team that is completely embarrassed about giving up over 190 rushing yards a game and determined to make good. While Johnson was held to just 55 yards on 19 carries he did score on the ground and added five receptions on seven targets for another 46 yards and a touchdown. What did we learn here? Even if teams strategize on shutting down DJ in the run game he has proven over and over that he can hurt you in so many other ways.

Looking at the Friday stacks article it was yet another take the good with the bad situation. The contrarian stack was a huge letdown as Jay Cutler stunk up the field completing just 16 of 30 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The only positive I take from this is the low exposure I had to the Bears offense, as contrarian as it actually felt entering those lineups on Sunday morning.

The other letdown was the much-anticipated matchup between the Eagles and Falcons. I underestimated the Eagles defense at home thinking the Falcons would roll forcing a ton of passes from Carson Wentz. The game was 7-6 at half! This is where I shut the game off until Tuesday morning game film. Wentz wasn’t bad at all completing 25 of his 36 passes (69%) but didn’t throw a touchdown as Ryan Mathews game controlled the day. Yep, Ryan Mathews who was supposed to be playing second fiddle to Darren Sproles according to Doug Pederson. What a liar! LOL. I still feel positive about the upside of this offense in the right situation and game script. Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles lead the team in targets with TE Zach Ertz right behind them with seven targets. If you are feeling bold in large field GPP’s this week load up on the Eagles once again in a road matchup in Seattle where they will be bottom feeders in ownership.

Speaking of the Seahawks, they actually brought some joy to my Sunday after I had witnessed my team (Vikings) lose once again and sent most of my lineups up in flames. The afternoon was a different story as I had plenty of exposure to Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin who exploded for three touchdowns. Wilson ended up with 348 yards passing on 25 completions. Jimmy Graham saw his lowest target share (4) since Week 2 of the season and was a product of Baldwin having the hot, hot hand.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB

Aaron Rodgers – 371 Passing Yards, 2 TD (32.54 DK Pts)
Game flow worked out perfectly this week as the Titans took the lead early and never gave it up. Rodgers was forced to pass a ton (51 attempts).

Ben Roethlisberger – 408 Yards, 3 TD (31.42 DK Pts)
Big Ben went off on the Cowboys in one of the best games of the season. He completed 37 of 46 pass attempts(80%) for 408 yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort. How amazing has Ben been this year? That was his 3rd best fantasy output of the 2016 season.

Marcus Mariota – 295 Yards, 4 TD (28.6 DK Pts)
He continues to prove he is an elite fantasy QB on a run heavy team. He only attempted 26 passes on Sunday but completed 19 of them for almost 300 yards and four touchdowns. He is very mobile in the pocket and while he didn’t this week, can kill you on the ground if you play man to man. He is also doing this without an elite WR1.

RB

Ezekiel Elliott – 114 Yards, 2 TD + 95 Yards Receiving, 1 TD (43.9 DK Pts)
WOW! He tallied his fifth 100+ yard rushing game of the season to top 1000 yards total through just nine games this season. He also added two catches on Sunday, one that went for 83 yards and a touchdown.

Le’Veon Bell – 57 Yards, 1 TD + 77 Yards Receiving, 1 TD (34.4 DK Pts)
Bell struggled to get it going on the ground with just 57 yards but did score a touchdown. He really paid off his value through the air catching nine of his ten targets for 77 yards with a touchdown.

Ryan Mathews – 109 Yards, 2 TD + 30 Yards Receiving (32.9 DK Pts)
It pains me to write this as I was on the Eagles passing game once again. Doug Pederson told everyone Darren Sproles was the go-to guy. Don’t believe anything you hear. Mathews looked confident with his biggest workload (19 carries) since Week 1.

WR

Antonio Brown – 154 Yards, 1 TD (37.4 DK Pts)
Brown caught 14 of his 18 targets for another monster game and endzone celebration. That was the second time this season he has received that many targets in a game and was his fourth 100+ yard effort.

Stefon Diggs – 164 Yards (32.4 DK Pts)
He didn’t score a touchdown but caught 13 balls (two weeks in a row) for 164 yards as he continually got open for Sam Bradford. He is about the only Viking to trust for fantasy right now as he has recorded 13+ targets in three straight games.

Jordy Nelson – 126 Yards, 1 TD (33.6 DK Pts)
He certainly benefited from Rodgers having to throw the ball 51 times and seen 18 targets himself, catching 12 of them. That is now three straight games for Nelson with 94+ yards and a touchdown.

TE

Delanie Walker – 124 Yards, 1 TD (30.4 DK Pts)
Walker exploded for his best game of the season catching nine of his 11 targets and his first 100+ yard game in 2016. He continues to lead the team in targets (62).

Cameron Brate – 84 Yards, 1 TD (21.4 DK Pts)
He caught all seven of his targets from Jameis Winston for a season-high yardage. He has now scored in three straight weeks and continues to be under priced.

Martellus Bennett – 102 Yards (20.2 DK Pts)
He didn’t score on Sunday but broke 100 yards for the third time this season. With Rob Gronkowski dealing with a chest injury there is a chance he once again plays a big role.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the 49ers in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – New England Patriots

This almost blew up in my face last week with the ultimate chalk call of David Johnson vs. the 49ers awful run defense. They appeared to put a lot of emphasis on shutting down the run and forcing the Cards to beat them through the air. They happily accepted.

This week the 49ers welcome the powerhouse from New England that will have to be game planned completely different from the Cards. The #1 goal should be to shut down Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady which could leave a lot of running room for red hot LeGarrette Blount. Against a tough Seahawks defense he compiled 69 rushing yards and three scores. The Patriots continue to give him the ball around the goal line creating plenty of opportunities for cheap fantasy points.

Target the Browns
This week’s Matchup – Pittsburgh Steelers

No surprise here as the Browns are the worst team in the league. Behind the 49ers they allow the most rushing yards per game (143.7) and the 6th most passing yards per game(275.4). Looking at the Player Lab Tool that equates to 32nd in Defense vs. the Pass and 29th in Defense vs. the Run. No matter which way you slice it appears the Steelers offense will be in for a big week. I could see the merit in rostering the three head stacking monster of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6)

Offensive Rankings (Yards Per Game)
NO – 322.7 Passing Yards per Game(1st), 105 Rushing Yards per Game(16th)
CAR – 252.8 Passing Yards per Game(15th), 113.9 Rushing Yards per Game(11th)

Defensive Rankings (Player Lab Tool)
NO – 30th in Defense vs. the Pass, 26th in Defense vs. the Run
CAR – 22nd in Defense vs. the Pass, 5th in Defense vs. the Run

This week was an excellent week to get in on a Monday – Thursday slate contest. I made five lineups and mixed and matched AJ Green and Odell Beckham Jr. and even had two lineups with both and Sterling Shepard who also scored.

Ok, enough about the Monday nighter. Let’s get into Thursday’s game. The game opens as one of the highest totals of the week (52) with a fairly tight spread as the home team is currently a three-point favorite. With the Falcons unable to pull away in the division (6-4) both the Panthers and Saints have a realistic shot at catching them.

From a matchup standpoint I absolutely love both teams in the passing game. I favor Drew Brees in this one as the Saints lead the league in passing yards per game and Brees sits 2nd behind only Matt Ryan with 2,992 yards and is tied with him with 24 touchdown passes. I love Willie Snead this week coming off a two-touchdown effort vs. the Broncos. The Panthers have struggled on the back end, and their weakest CB (according to PFF CB rankings) has been slot corner Leonard Johnson. I would load up on Brandin Cooks who has seen his salary trend down and has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. I would avoid Mark Ingram this week as the Panthers rank 5th in Defense vs. the Run.

From the Panthers side of things, I am not as excited as they are more expensive and have not produced at the same level. I will have exposure as the matchup is just too hard to pass (pun intended) up. It will be another excellent opportunity for Cam Newton to get on track as he has not thrown for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in three straight weeks. For him to take the next step he will need Kelvin Benjamin to step up. He has not had a 100-yard game since Week 2 and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4. Even the steady Eddie of the offense hasn’t been producing like himself lately. Greg Olsen leads the league in targets (78) by a tight end but hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 5. From a rushing standpoint you can trust Jonathan Stewart this week who gets a much easier task against the Saints 26th ranked pass defense. The last time these two teams met he ran for 85 yards and two scores.

I will be looking for fireworks on Thursday night as the last two times these teams have met there have been exactly 79 total points each game. Lock and load!

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab