NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 11/23/16

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.

What We Learned

It was a very interesting and mostly forgettable week in the NFL. From a record setting 11 PAT’s missed on Sunday, to multiple injuries to key players, to Russell Wilson catching a touchdown pass from Doug Baldwin we nearly saw everything. There were only two games that saw a combined point total exceed 50 points and if you told me before kickoff that one of them would have been the matchup between two top 10 defenses in the Vikings and Cardinals I would have called you crazy! Despite the wind in Washington Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins combined for 726 yards through the air and six touchdowns. Unfortunately for the struggling Packers Robert Kelley ran all over them for 137 yards and three more touchdowns as the Redskins beat up on the Packers 42-24, handing them their fourth straight loss.

The defenses we talked about targeting in last weeks early article turned out nicely. Even with Tom Brady taking control and throwing four touchdowns, my target of LaGarrette Blount still ended up with 19 carries and 124 yards rushing. I also mentioned jumping on board with the Steelers in a matchup vs. the Browns but unfortunately the weather really limited the passing as Ben Roethlisberger ended up with just 167 yards passing. The defense played a big factor with eight sacks and a pick-six on the day. The game flow presented opportunity to RB Le’Veon Bell who rushed it 28 times for a 146 yards and a touchdown. He also caught eight of his nine targets for another 55 yards. Antonio Brown was somewhat quiet catching eight of his 10 targets for just 76 yards.

Both main stacks from last week were destroyed by the wind. We already discussed the Steelers and if you played Bell in cash games like I did you may have at least broke even. The other stack turned out better for the Giants, who won their 5th straight game, than it did for our fantasy lineups. Eli Manning was efficient completing 21 passes on 36 attempts for two touchdowns and no interceptions but just 46 yards of that production went to Odell Beckham Jr.. The one highlight was value play Sterling Shepard who picked up five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown and is being relied on more consistently in the Giants offense. It was Rashad Jennings stealing the show with his second straight game with 15 + carries and 80+ yards. He also scored a touchdown on the ground and added five receptions for an additional 44 yards.

Injury Report

With so many key injuries, I am going to highlight a few them and some possible values with their absences before moving on to the game balls of the week.

A.J. Green – Green put up a goose egg before exiting with a hamstring injury on Sunday. It was originally feared he was lost for the season but the tear turns out to be minor. He is considered week to week. The biggest beneficiary in his loss will be rookie Tyler Boyd who has seen his role grow each week and became Andy Dalton’s favorite target after Green was ruled out. Against a tough Buffalo defense he finished with six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.

Giovani Bernard – The Bengals definitely got hit the hardest as they will also lose Bernard for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Jeremy Hill will see a boost in value in Bernard’s absence and should easily see 15+ carries going forward.

Ryan Mathews & Darren Sproles – Mathews injured his knee it was seen with a brace in the locker room. The Eagles don’t play until Monday night so take what you will from the coach saying he is just day to day. Sproles has a cracked rib and while he is expected to play through the pain, don’t expect him to see the same usage in the offense. Wendell Smallwood will be the biggest beneficiary if Mathews is indeed out and Sproles is limited this week. He is value priced on both sites and facing a Packers team who have given up 150+ yards in back to back weeks.

C.J. Prosise – He suffered a fractured scapula and will be out at least 2-3 weeks. This opens the door for the return to a full workload for Thomas Rawls who has been out of action since Week 2.

Robert Woods – Why am I mentioning Woods who has been fantasy irrelevant for all but one week this season? Because it may spell the return of Sammy Watkins who has been out since Week 2. He should be avoided this week as the chances are very low he gets more than 50% of the snaps after being out so long.

Lesean McCoy – After picking up 33 yards and a touchdown, McCoy exited the game with a dislocated thumb and had surgery Monday morning. His status is up in the air at this point and if he ends up sitting out Mike Gillislee would become a solid value play on both sites.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Aaron Rodgers – Led the way at quarterback with 29.3 FD/32.3 DK points on the back of a 351 yard/3 TD performance on Sunday night. Despite the Packers struggles, Rodgers has been exceptional for fantasy lately and has attempted 38+ passes in seven straight games with multiple touchdowns in six of them.

Kirk Cousins – In the same game it was Cousins helping lead the Redskins to victory with 375 yards passing and three touchdowns despite the heavy winds in Washington. It was the third time in four games Cousins has thrown for 300+ yards which just happens to be a bonus on DraftKings.

Dak Prescott – The #3 spot was tough this week with multiple options (Brady, Carr, Mariota) right on the fringe. I lean Prescott as the rookie was extremely efficient completing 27 of his 36 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns.

RB
David Johnson – He continues to be one of the best all-around backs in the league with another masterful all-purpose game. He rushed it 22 times for 103 yards and a touchdown and caught seven of his 11 targets for another 57 yards and a touchdown. He sits just nine yards behind the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott for the all-purpose yards lead.

Le’Veon Bell – It was a product of the wind limiting the pass and the fact Bell is a dominant force in the league. The Browns knew what was coming all day and still couldn’t stop it. Bell ended up rushing for 146 yards on 28 attempts (5.2 average) and also caught eight of his nine targets for another 55 yards in the passing game.

Rob Kelley – Fat Rob, the undrafted rookie out of Tulane, had a huge game against the Packers on Sunday night. He ended up with 137 yards and three touchdowns on the ground and now has received 20+ carries in three straight games for the Redskins.

WR
Pierre Garcon – If you stacked Garcon with Cousins this week you probably have a fat wallet this week. He didn’t come out of nowhere by any means as he has produced some double digit fantasy outputs this season but no one expected 100+ yards. It was his first one since week 3 of the 2014 season. Don’t expect him to be highlighted in this section again this season.

Rishard Mathews – Despite not scoring a touchdown he recorded his biggest yardage day of the season with 122 on nine receptions. Speaking of touchdowns, he has scored six in his last seven games. Keep rolling him out there at a price right around $6K on both sites.

Dez Bryant – Bryant had another productive outing catching six of eight targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns. He has now picked up 100 yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games.

TE
Jared Cook – Don’t put too much stock into his monster game Sunday (six catches on 11 targets for 105 yards/1 TD). The wind limited the downfield attack forcing Rodgers to attempt a ton of short passes. He also faces a tough Eagles defense who are even better at home while many people will hop aboard the train. Easy fade spot for me in Week 12.

Travis Kelce – He continues to come in under owned and paid off this week catching seven of his nine targets for his second 100 yard game in the past four weeks.

Eric Ebron – He continues to provide excellent value with his third straight game with 70+ yards receiving. He also chipped in with a rush at the goal line and picking up the touchdown.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Jets in the Pass Game
This weeks Matchup – New England Patriots

Looking at the Player Lab Tool the Jets rank 3rd in stopping the run but have really struggled against the pass ranking 27th overall. They have done a good job limiting weaker quarterbacks but have struggled against the upper tier guys. Big Ben put up 380 yards and four touchdowns, Russell Wilson put up 309 yards and three touchdowns and even Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. They get their toughest test of the season in Week 12 as Tom Brady and the Patriots come to town. Brady has been unstoppable since returning from his suspension with 1,915 yards passing and a 16-1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is averaging 26.3 DK/24.3 FD points per game. Brady is projected for 45+ passing attempts and is the clear #1 option this weekend.

Target the Colts in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Pittsburgh Steelers

Without even looking at the Player Lab Tool< we all know Le’Veon Bell is an elite running back in this league. Look closer and he should be in 100% of your lineups on Thursday. He is facing the worst run defense according to our metrics at Lineup Labs in a very game script heavy setup for Bell. The Colts are likely to be without Andrew Luck who is in the league’s concussion protocol. This will almost certainly mean Bell should be able to hit his projection of 20 rushes while adding his usual 5-10 receptions. Another thing to point out is his low TD Dependency of 15% compared to other elite options like Elliott (30%), Murray (34%), Johnson (34%). This is great as he doesn’t necessarily have to score to hit value.

Thursday Night Football

Happy Thanksgiving my American friends!

While many of you will be enjoying Turkey and the comfort of close family and friends I will have my eyes glued to the television for 12 straight hours. This will mark the first time since Week 1 where there will be multiple games and with so many comes a ton of different DFS slates and contests. Whether you prefer to play just Thursday games or combine them with Sunday-Mon games, there is a wide range of offerings on both sites.

In this section I am going to be covering all three Thursday games with a quick preview of the matchups as well as some of the top DFS plays from each game. Let’s get started!

Minnesota Vikings(6-4) vs. Detroit Lions(6-4)

Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
MIN – 223.8 Passing Yards Per Game(24th), 70.0 Rushing Yards Per Game(32nd)
DET – 252.2 Passing Yards Per Game(16th), 79.5 Rushing Yards Per Game(30th)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA Rankings)
MIN – 12th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 4th in DVOA Passing Defense
DET – 24th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 32nd in DVOA Passing Defense

The day kicks off with a huge NFC North tilt between two teams with identical 6-4 records. If the playoffs were to start today the Lions would win the division as they own the tie break beating the Vikings earlier in the season. For the Lions Thanksgiving Day games are nothing new as it has been a tradition for them since 1934. This year is bigger than most as there is plenty on the line when looking at the playoff picture. Of all the Thursday games this one has the lowest Vegas total (43) which makes perfect sense as both teams rank in the bottom half f the league in points per game and as you can see above neither of them have overly impressive offenses. For cash games I would limit my exposure to this game but for GPP it may be an attractive source if you are wanting to go a bit contrarian.

For the Vikings, it is all about the pass as they have little to no value in the run game but are presented with a terrific matchup through the air as the Lions rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. Look for Sam Bradford to target Stefon Diggs at a high rate should he be cleared for the game. Diggs was limited on Monday and did not practice on Tuesday. Be sure to monitor the situation before lineup lock. If he is ruled out, look for some extra target share for TE Kyle Rudolph who has been a touchdown dependant value at this position. Adam Thielen would also see a boost if Diggs is out. He has been receiving around five targets per game and has made some terrific catches and has scored in two straight games.

For the Lions, it is a little more unclear, especially in the passing game. Matthew Stafford has been very conservative in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense and hasn’t topped 300 yards passing since Week 3. I don’t see it happening this week either against a Vikings defense that ranks 4th in DVOA against the pass. They have limited teams to just an average of just 223 yards through the air. The other problem is the number of viable targets Stafford has to throw to. It starts with his wide receivers Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. who have flip-flopped salaries and production. Jones started out hot when Stafford was taking downfield shots, but since he has become more conservative it has been Tate getting the largest target share. Eric Ebron makes a viable TE play this week at a very affordable price and has topped 70 yards receiving in three straight games. He hasn’t scored but that level of consistency is perfect for cash games.

Washington Redskins(6-3-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys(9-1)

Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
WSH – 301.4 Passing Yards Per Game(3rd), 117.1 Rushing Yards Per Game(10th)
DAL – 256.4 Passing Yards Per Game(15th), 156.7 Rushing Yards Per Game(2nd)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA Rankings)
WSH – 29th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 17th in DVOA Passing Defense
DAL – 8th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 28th in DVOA Passing Defense

Game two on Thursday presents another huge divisional matchup. The NFC East-leading Cowboys travel to Washington to take on the Redskins. The Cowboys have been red hot since losing in Week 1, winning nine straight games and leading the NFC with just six games remaining. The Redskins are not out of the division by any means and a win on Thursday afternoon would put them right back in the race. As for the Wild Card, they currently occupy the last spot in the conference ahead of the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Eagles. This game will go a long way to shaping the entire NFC playoff picture and with an Over/Under of 51 should be filled with fantasy gold.

With the Cowboys opening as seven-point favorites with their 2nd ranked rushing game going up against the Redskins 28th ranked defense, we can expect a huge workload once again from rookie Ezekiel Elliott. He currently leads the league in rushing with 1,102 yards and has also hauled in 22 receptions on 27 targets for an additional 280 yards. The Cowboys have an elite offensive line and have allowed Zeke to average a touchdown per game through his first 10 NFL games. The Redskins should be able to keep this one close with their prolific passing game meaning there is also value in stacking Dak Prescott with Dez Bryant. Due to game flow during the winning streak Dak has not attempted 40 passes in a game since Week 1 but has recorded 18+ fantasy points in each of the Cowboys last nine wins. Dez has been excellent since returning to the lineup with two 100 yard games and four touchdowns in four games. If you are looking for some cash game value you can also consider Cole Beasley who despite not logging a 100-yard game this season has double-digit fantasy points in eight of his ten games (7 on FD where it’s .5 point PPR).

On the Redskins side of the ball, you are going to want to load up on the passing game. While RB Rob Kelley has been a world destroyer lately he is going to be highly owned and facing a Top 10 defense against the run. As I mentioned earlier, the Skins are also seven point dogs, so game script is also not in Kelley’s favor. Don’t get me wrong, if you are playing a Thursday only slate he is definitely in consideration in GPP formats. The key to the Redskins offense is going to be Kirk Cousins who has been red hot lately with 300+ passing yards in three of his last four games with eight touchdowns in that time. For safety the top option for Cousins will be Jamison Crowder who has logged three 100 yard games in his last four games and has also scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. For GPP’s take a shot with Desean Jackson who is again being limited at practice this week but that didn’t stop him from scoring on four receptions last week against the Packers.
From a tight end perspective, Jordan Reed has been relatively quiet this season and has yet to top 100 yards and has just three scores. If you are playing a Thursday only slate he is a fine option, but I would fade him if you are playing a Thursday-Monday slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers(5-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts(5-5)

Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
PIT – 268.2 Passing Yards Per Game(7th), 96.2 Rushing Yards Per Game(23rd)
IND – 260.8 Passing Yards Per Game(12th), 95.8 Rushing Yards Per Game(24th)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA Rankings)
PIT – 11th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 16th in DVOA Passing Defense
IND – 31st in DVOA Rushing Defense, 29th in DVOA Passing Defense

The final game of the day originally looked like it had shootout potential with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck going head to head. That does not appear to be the case anymore as Luck is currently going through the league’s concussion protocol and is unlikely to play Thursday night. Due to this we saw the overall total drop with the spread tilting even more in the Steelers favor. Both teams come in with identical 5-5 records and both still have very realistic shots at their division titles. The Steelers are tied at the top of the AFC North with the Ravens while the Colts sit just one game back of the Texans in the AFC South.

For the Steelers, it is pretty clear who is going to get the bulk of the workload. Le’Veon Bell is an elite option and is a must play in all formats. Since returning in Week 4 Bell has scored double-digit fantasy points in all seven games and has 15+ fantasy points in all but one game. He has topped 140 yards rushing twice in those seven games and is an elite option in the passing game, catching 53 of his 65 targets for 415 yards and a touchdown. With game flow expected to be heavy in the Steelers favor we can expect 20+ carries from Bell. Game flow and weather held Big Ben down last week as he only recorded 167 yards passing. With a quick turnaround from Sunday I expect most people to avoid him due to recency bias which will make him an excellent GPP stacking option with Antonio Brown. The cost is high on the pair but the upside is tremendous. It could be a situation similar to *Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. Everyone and their dog expected LaGarrette Blount** to go wild and score multiple touchdowns on the 49ers and it ended up being Brady throwing four touchdowns with limited ownership. The slate is much smaller but the same scenario could play out. Be sure to roster at least one Big Ben/AB stack.

With Andrew Luck out of the picture expect Scott Tolzien to get the start for the Colts. He is dirt cheap and would allow for a ton of salary to spend elsewhere but beware. He hasn’t made a start in the NFL in over three years when he started back to back games for the Packers. The volume will most definitely be there, but it is hard to predict what we are going to get from Tolzien. The Luck news is going to be huge for the Colts offense. With the climbing price of Colts wide receivers TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief I think you have to avoid them if Tolzien gets the start unless you are looking to go ultra-contrarian in large field GPP’s.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab