NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 11/30/16

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.

What We Learned

First of all, I hope everyone had a terrific Thanksgiving. As a Canadian I really enjoy the American holiday and to be honest it has everything to do with football. Other than opening night where we get two games, this is the only other week with multiple Thursday games and it runs all day! It was a horrible start to the day for me as a Vikings fan as I spent the first three hours of day yelling at the ultra conservative play calling of Mike Zimmer’s offense. Even from a fantasy perspective it was a disappointing game with a 16-13 finish. Anquan Boldin was about the only highlight as he caught seven of his nine targets for 69 yards and one of the two offensive touchdowns in the game.

As predicted the highest scoring game on Thanksgiving ended being in Dallas where the Cowboys beat the Redskins 31-26. Game flow favored the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott who rushed 20 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns. This helped the Redskins passing game as they trailed the entire game and were forced to throw a ton. Kirk Cousins ended up completing 41 passes on 53 attempts for a whopping 449 yards and three touchdowns. Because of the high volume there were multiple targets in the Redskins offense that paid off including Jordan Reed (10 of 12 for 95 yards & 2 TD), DeSean Jackson (4 of 8 for 118 yards & 1 TD) and Jamison Crowder (8 of 10 for 88 yards).

In the final Thanksgiving game we saw things pretty much play out the way we thought as the Steelers rolled over the Colts 28-7. We discussed targeting the Steelers, especially in the run game, and Le’Veon Bell didn’t disappoint getting 23 carries and totaling 120 and a touchdown on the ground while also securing four of his five targets for an additional 22 yards. It all counts. I also mentioned running a Ben Roethlisberger/Antonio Brown stack in GPP’s and they delivered on minimal volume this week. Big Ben completed just 14 of 20 passes for 221 yards but tossed three touchdowns, all to Brown. Impressive performance all around for the Steelers elite playmakers.

Looking at the stacks from last week things went quite well for the most part. We will start with the bad and the clears throat Seahawks. They scored five points! Looking for a positive, I think they present a great GPP value this week at home to the struggling Panthers.

One thing that worked out in a big way was the Monday Night Football combination of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams. Even with Aaron Ripkowski taking in a one-yard rush for a touchdown, Rodgers completed 30 of 39 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Adams benefited the most catching five of his six targets for 113 yards and two touchdowns while Jordy had a productive game catching eight of his 12 targets for 91 yards. That’s 17.1 DraftKings points where you get rewarded a full point for a reception. Even in a tough matchup vs. the Texans and potential hamstring ailment for A-Rod, you can continue to ride the Packer passing game if he is in the starting lineup.

The running back/defense combination worked out for the most part. The Chargers defense totaled 13 fantasy points with three interceptions, one sack and just 13 points allowed. They certainly paid off their low to mid-tier price across the industry. Melvin Gordon didn’t quite see the volume we expected with this game flow but was efficient totaling 70 yards and catching all four of his targets in the passing game. Had he scored it would have been a different story but with the expectations going in it was a mediocre performance for the level of ownership.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Note – We already discussed Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins who tore it up so we will touch on a few other options below

Trevor Siemian
He was quiet but efficient through the first three-quarters but exploded with two big plays in the fourth quarter to Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler. He ended up completing 20 of his 34 pass attempts for 368 yards and three touchdowns. His yardage total (2nd 300+ yard game) was a product of the big plays and the added overtime period so don’t expect production like this every week.

Drew Brees
It was Brees seventh game of the season throwing for 300+ yards and also his seventh game throwing for three or more touchdowns. The only odd part about the performance was that he failed to target Brandin Cooks once in the passing game. After watching the film, I am chalking it up to the defensive game plan of the Rams and won’t shy away from Cooks in the future.

Matt Barkley
The USC product had a very eventful first start in the NFL that could have been much better if not for two red zone interceptions. He did end up crushing his value in garbage time throwing two late fourth quarter touchdowns after the Titans had already taken a commanding lead.

RB
Mark Ingram
Even though he was out-touched by Tim Hightower he was the more productive back in the blowout win for the Saints. He totaled 146 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while also catching one of his two targets in the passing game for 21 yards and another touchdown.

LeSean McCoy
Even with injury concerns leading up to the game, Shady McCoy was one of just four running backs in Week 12 to total 100+ yards on the ground. It didn’t look good early as the Jags contained him to under 10 yards in the first half but the Bills made the necessary changes down the stretch. McCoy ended up with 103 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and also caught both of his targets in the passing game for an additional 31 yards.

Colin Kaepernick
I didn’t mention him in the quarterback section so I decided to mention his outstanding fantasy performance here. Kaep was not only one of just four players to rush for 100+ yards this week. He also threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns in another 49er loss. He may not be a great “real life” QB but he is sure becoming a great “fantasy’ QB down the stretch.

WR
Davante Adams
He was the third-most targeted receiver in the Packers offense on Monday night but he was by far the most productive. He caught five of his six targets for 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With a low target share he will continue to be a GPP only play with inconsistent production.

Michael Thomas
With Cooks seeing zero targets on Sunday, it was rookie Thomas stealing the show with a game-high ten targets. He showed elite upside catching nine of them for 108 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Thomas has now caught eight of his ten red zone targets and leads the team with five touchdowns in that area. Look out!

Mike Evans
One of the best plays of the week at the WR position was Mike Evans. He came in around 5% owned in tournaments due to his perceived tough matchup against the Seahawks. I wouldn’t blame you if you faded the game (I was on Seahawks stack) as it ended up with just 19 total points. The problem is Evans torched the Seahawks secondary, catching eight of his 11 targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns. It was his ninth double-digit target game of the season as he continues to lead the league averaging 11.8 per game and is an elite play week in and week out.

TE
Travis Kelce
The touchdowns continue to be hard to come by for Kelce, but he did record eight catches on a season-high 15 targets for 101 yards. It was the second straight week Kelce had reached 100+ yards receiving and the third time in five games. We can deal without the touchdowns if he continues to rack up the yardage like this and his price stays affordable on both sites.

Jordan Reed
It didn’t look good early as Reed exited the game and was seen in a sling on the sideline. Turns out he has a Grade 3 AC Joint separation. Well, he returned to action anyway and proceeded to catch 10 of his 12 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. His status moving forward is unknown but Reed says he will most likely play through the pain the rest of the season. If he does sit out this upcoming week, Vernon Davis would become a near must play on both sites.

Josh Hill
The snap count for tight ends swayed in favor of Hill this past weekend. Hill saw a bump and played in 78% of the Saints offensive snaps while Coby Fleener only seen 24%. Hill ended up catching all six of his targets for 74 yards and 13.4 DK/10.4 FD points. If this trend continues, Hill makes an excellent punt play at the tight end position.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Detroit Lions in the Pass Game
This week’s Matchup – New Orleans Saints
Defense vs. the Pass – 31st

The Lions have won three straight and continue to lead the NFC North. For the most part it has been the offense carrying them, especially the passing game as the defense ranks near the bottom in most categories. Looking at Player Lab Tool they rank 24th against the Run and 31st against the pass. They were not really tested the last four games facing the Jaguars, Texans and Vikings twice. They will be more than tested this week facing Drew Brees and the 5th ranked passing attack in football. There is a good reason this game has the highest projected total of the week.

Target San Francisco 49ers in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Chicago Bears

Here we are back to take a shot at the 49ers rush defense. They have been a bit better as of late, holding opponents under 100 yards in two of their last three games but still rank dead last in rush defense and it isn’t even close. They are allowing 171 yards per game and the next ranked team (CLE) is allowing just 140.6 per game. That’s 30 yards a game difference. Incredible.

This is a good sign for RB Jordan Howard who gets a shot at them this weekend. The rookie has impressed with four 100 yard games so far. He is averaging 76.6 yards per game and has also received four or more targets in the passing game on seven occasions. The game itself has a low total (44) with a close spread so expect closer to 20 carries this week for Howard.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys(10-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings(6-5)
Favorite – DAL(-3)
Vegas Total – 44
Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
DAL – 250.4 Passing Yards per Game(16th), 157.3 Rushing Yards per Game(2nd)
MIN – 223.8 Passing Yards per Game(24th), 71.1 Rushing Yards per Game(32nd)

Defensive Rankings(Player Lab Rankings)
DAL – Defense vs. the Pass(23rd), Defense vs the Rush(8th)
MIN – Defense vs. the Pass(4th), Defense vs the Rush(12th)

This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup brings us two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cowboys have been rolling along all season since losing in Week 1. They have won 10 straight and lead the entire NFC with an impressive 10-1 record. On the other side of the ball, we have the Vikings who came out of the box on fire winning five straight before their bye week. Since the bye week they have dropped five of their last six games and now sit a game out of the NFC North. It is highly unlikely more than one team will come out of the NFC North so look for a full effort on Thursday night in a near do or die situation.

Looking at the Vegas line for this game it is projected to be a low scoring, close matchup. The Vikings have been terribly disappointing on offense, but have taken the next step with their young defensive core. They have been tough against the Pass(12th) and even more resilient against the Run(4th). Even with a solid matchup it will most likely be Ezekiel Elliott once again carrying the load. He has shown us that he is pretty much matchup-proof with the elite offensive line in front of him and he is also an excellent receiver and could easily see 5+ targets this week. Dez Bryant faces a tough matchup in Xavier Rhodes so if you want to attack the passing game take a value shot with Cole Beasley who has four or more receptions in 11 of his 12 games this season.

From a Viking perspective, there is absolutely no reason to target their running game as they rank dead last in the league and get a tough matchup vs. the Cowboys Top 10 rushing defense. It will be a bit contrarian but you can take a shot with Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs (if he plays). The Cowboys weak spot is through the air as they rank 23rd overall vs. the Pass. They have surrendered 400+ passing yard in two of their last three games. Bradford is certainly not Big Ben or Cousins so don’t expect career-high numbers, but I could easily see 250+ yards and multiple touchdowns this week. If Diggs is to sit out again take a close look at Adam Thielen or Cordarrelle Patterson.

It is a difficult week to target fantasy output on Thursday, so I will be limiting my exposure to just a couple of lineups. In one lineup I will be targeting the Vikings pass game which should be forced to throw a ton in the second half. Bring on the garbage time! In one of my other Thurs-Mon lineups I am going to fade the Thursday game all together in hopes of a low-scoring, dry fantasy point game. I love this strategy when the TNF game is projected to be low scoring. I will throw this lineup mostly in 50/50’s and double ups as so many people will game stack the Thursday game just to get the action. Take advantage of these people!

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab