NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 12/07/16

Chris Durell

This week I am going to throw a little twist into the article by screenshotting one of my tournament stacks that I recommended this past week and analyzing the roster construction and results. I think it is important to not only look at what individual players did and did not work out but also how the lineup construction process worked out. This week I will be looking at one of my DraftKings Thursday-Monday lineups.

I wanted to focus on one of my Thursday-Monday slate lineups to emphasize the opportunity in targeting Monday night players and stacks. As you can see Andrew Luck and TY Hilton both came in around 1% owned ($1 First Down-7,058 entries). Dwayne Allen, not rostered, was also less than 1% owned and went off for three touchdowns and 29 DK points. Donte Moncrief was 4.25% owned for the Colts. You won’t get this low of ownership and upside every week, but the point is that if you like a team on Monday night it is best to get on them in a Thursday-Monday slate. Every week it’s the same thing. Almost 25% of the field targets players from the Thursday night game to get “action”. Even this past week in a projected low scoring game, the Cowboys/’Vikings game had six of the Top 11 highest owned players in the above $1 Thurs-Mon First Down. Take advantage of this!

Now let’s look at the lineup construction.

QB – Besides everything I stated above, I loved Andrew Luck this week for the reasons I explained in the stacks article. The Jets defense is lacking on the back end, combined with the projected low-ownership with the Q tag on Luck all week. It worked it as he was extremely effective completing 22 of 28 passes for 278 yards and four touchdowns.

RB – With the combined price of Luck and Hilton I decided to fade the Top 2 RB’s (Johnson/Bell) and look for some value. I was attracted to the matchup for LeSean McCoy against the Raiders bottom third passing defense. The LaGarrette Blount pick was a bit contrarian as the Rams rate as a Top 10 Defense vs. the Run on Player Lab. What got me was the -13.5 spread put on the home team. Game script fit perfectly for high usage and that’s what he got with 18 carries that he turned into 88 yards and a touchdown. The pair of RB’s combined for 73.6 DK points for a cost of $13,300 for just over 5x value.

WR – After selecting TY Hilton as my elite stacking option I decided to attack the highest projected scoring game of the week. This is where I don’t think I made the wrong decision but rather got a bit unlucky. Willie Snead was a great play when you looked at all the factors (matchup, price, vegas, etc..) but Drew Brees had an off day. It was the first time since 2009 in which he hasn’t thrown a touchdown at home. On the other side of the ball, Golden Tate was an excellent play who caught eight of his game-high 10 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown for 31.5 DK points (5.1x value). For my FLEX I also used a WR and selected Chris Hogan as a projected low owned home run play. He was questionable going into Sunday but was cleared to play and was extremely cheap. Even in a tie for third in targets (5), he was able to catch four for 23 yards and caught a big one in the redzone for his only touchdown which helped him get close to 3x value with 12.3 DK points.

TE – This is where, if I had the chance, I would get in my time machine and roster Dwayne Allen in my Colts stacks. Hindsight is 20/20. It was the one lineup I didn’t swap with the news snow in Green Bay. To be honest, though, I would have only moved him over to Lance Kendricks who was my other high owned value tight end last week.

Overall, it was a small profit thanks to Luck and the Colts stack that could have been much, much better had I went to Allen and upgraded Blount or Hogan. This week I will be playing more double-ups and 50/50’s on the Thursday to Monday slate while avoiding the Thursday game as it projected to be low scoring as most short week games are (10-5 Under to Over counting all Thanksgiving games).

Now let’s take a look at the Week 13 Game Balls.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Joe Flacco – Flacco had a huge day at home vs. the Dolphins completing 36 of 47 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns (30.24 FD pts, 33.24 DK pts). If you played him in tournaments you likely padded your bankroll as he was very low owned facing what was a tough Dolphins passing defense.

Andrew Luck – As I discussed above he was low-owned, even in Sunday-Monday slate he had under 10% in most places. He didn’t hit the 300-yard mark for the three point DK bonus but was still the second-highest scoring fantasy QB in Week 13 due to his four touchdown passes on Monday night.

Matthew Stafford – One positive out of the Saints/Lions game was the continued success of Stafford in plus matchups. He completed 30 of his 42 pass attempts for 341 yards and two touchdowns (26.84 DK/23.84 FD pts). The upside is limited in the Lions dink and dunk offense so continue to only consider him in these plus matchups.

RB

David Johnson – Guess who? They might as well build a statue of him outside the University of Phoenix Stadium. He rushed 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown while also catching nine of his 12 targets for another 91 yards and a touchdown (38.5 DK/34 FD pts). He now sits third in rushing behind Elliott and Murray but with his 704 receiving yards leads the league in all-purpose yards with 1,709.

Jordan Howard – The weather in Chicago lead to heavy usage for Howard this week and he didn’t disappoint fantasy owners. He toted the rock 32 times on Sunday picking 117 yards and three touchdowns (32.7 DK/29.7 FDD pts). He is a bell cow RB with a 64% Load % on Player Lab and gets a great matchup this week.

LeSean McCoy – McCoy shredded the Raiders for 130 yards rushing on 17 carries while catching all seven of his targets for another 61 yards receiving (29.1 DK/22.6 FD pts). His day could have been much bigger had Mike Gillislee not came in and vultured two touchdowns from Shady.

WR

Golden Tate – He ended up saving a ton of my lineups with a huge effort on Sunday. He caught eight of his game-high ten targets for 145 yards and a touchdown (31.5DK/24.5 FD pts). If Marvin Jones Jr. misses another game look for Tate to take control of the target share vs. the Bears once again.

Jordy Nelson – Even in bad weather Jordy came through on Sunday catching eight of his game-high ten targets for 118 yards and a touchdown while he and Rodgers continue to put up QB1/WR1 numbers on a pass happy Packers team.

TY Hilton – Back to the Monday night game and not for the last time in this section. Andrew Luck put on a show throwing four touchdowns and while zero went to Hilton he still ranked in the Top 3 of fantasy points at the position. He was very efficient catching nine of his ten targets for 146 yards(26.6 DK/19.1 FD pts).

TE

Dwayne Allen – He has a bit of an explosion on Monday Night Football catching all four of his targets for 72 yards and three touchdowns. He continues to share targets with Jack Doyle so don’t get too attached and fall into the recency bias web.

Dennis Pitta – He saw his second highest target total of the year (11) and didn’t let fantasy owners down. He finished the day catching nine of his 11 targets for 90 yards and two scores.

Travis Kelce – I was high on Kelce going into the week but the news of Jeremy Maclin being inactive put him at the top of my ranks on Sunday. He was impressive catching all eight of his targets for 140 yards despite not getting into the endzone.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Saints in the Pass Game
This week’s Matchup – Tampa Bay Bucanneers
Defense vs. the Pass – 24th

After back to back weeks holding the Rams and Panthers under 200 yards passing, the Saints were once again exposed through the air. Looking at the Player Lab Tool they rank 21st in Defense vs. the Pass and now face a Top 10 passing offense in Jameis Winston and the Bucs. It would be wise to get a ton of exposure to the highest projected game of the week and I lean Winston/Evans from a PTS/$ perspective as their roles are clear and now get an elite, high paced matchup.

Target the Dolphins in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Arizona Cardinals

This one is a bit of a layup but I am going to list anyway in case you were thinking of fading DJ. The Dolphins rank 28th in Defense vs. the Rush and have allowed the opponent to rush for 100+ yards in three straight games. Look for David Johnson to get heavy usage in the offense once again with a great shot to hit 100 yards rushing for the first time since Week 11. Either way, he will get his yards and fantasy points making him an elite play regardless of price.

Thursday Night Football

Oakland Raiders(10-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
Favorite – KC (-3)
Vegas Total – 46

Offensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
OAK – 7th in Rushing(114.6 yards/game), 4th in Passing(277.1 yards/game)
KC – 22nd in Rushing(98.8 yards/game), 13th in Passing(234.6 yards/game)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
OAK – 28th vs. the Rush(124.8 yards/game), 19th vs. the Pass(264.8 yards/game)
KC – 19th vs. the Rush(121.9 yards/game), 12th vs. the Pass(263 yards/game)

This week on Thursday Night Football we get a critical AFC West matchup between two positive trending teams. The Raiders are coming in having won six straight games and with a 10-2 record hold a one-game lead over Kansas City. The Chiefs are also coming in hot winning two straight and seven of their last eight games. With the way the AFC is shaking out it is very likely the winner of the division will get a bye in the playoffs while the the other team would get a wildcard spot.

This game is also the second meeting between these teams as the Chiefs got the better of the Raiders 26-10 in soggy conditions back in Week 6. One trend I have been reading a ton about the last two seasons is the advantage to the defenses in the second meeting between division rivals. The combination of this trend and the short week leaves us with one of the lower Vegas totals (46) of the week. For me, it is going to be another week where I play multiple cash games and GPP’s without touching any players in the Thursday game.

If you are playing Thursday players there are a few to consider:

At the QB position I prefer Derek Carr who is facing a much better pace situation, projected for more passes, and has been much better for fantasy all season. It is unclear how the Raiders will play their wide receivers against the Chiefs with MCB Marcus Peters playing over 90% of his snaps on the defense’s left side. It is most likely Michael Crabtree gets the short straw as he plays over 50% of his snaps on the offense’s right side. This could certainly open things up for Amari Cooper who could matchup against Phillip Gaines who is one of the worst ranked corners in the league. Stay tuned leading up to the game.

Both running backs are a little more valuable on DraftKings than on FanDuel and if I had to choose one I would take Spencer Ware. With the Chiefs being a home favorite the projected game script is in his favor. He also torched this Raiders defense back in Week 6 rushing for 131 yards on 24 carries and adding a touchdown.

The Raiders have been better than average against the TE position lately so in a projected low scoring game I will be avoiding Travis Kelce at his rising salary.

Both defenses would be in play in a good situation with a low projected total in the second game of the division series. Be careful with what stats you look at though as low scoring doesn’t always equal fantasy points for a defense. While both teams rank near the top in takeaways (Interceptions/Fumble Recoveries) they both also rank near the bottom in giveaways. There are more favorable opportunities for Defensive plays in the Sunday slate.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab