NFL Daily Fantasy Picks and Recap – 12/21/16

Chris Durell

Week 15 is in the books and Christmas is less than a week away. Don’t tell me you aren’t excited either. I mean, Santa already delivered an early present for football fans. Not only do we get our regular Thursday night game, which is actually a rather intriguing matchup, we also get a huge 12 game slate on Christmas Eve (Saturday) along with a two-game slate on Christmas Day and the regular Monday Night Football game on Boxing Day.

Before we get into the top matchups and breakdown for Week 16, let’s take a look at another one of my DraftKings lineups from this past weekend.

I talked about the Saints as a contrarian stack last week and did it ever pay off! I played 15 total lineups last week with exposure to the Packers, Cardinals, Raiders and unfortunately only played two Brees/Cooks stacks on the main slate and the one above was actually a late swap about half hour before lock. Every week I have been playing the main stacks in the majority of my lineups with a sprinkle of the contrarian stack due to the risk of the players, teams or both. The thing about going contrarian though is that when it hits and out performs the chalk it can make you a ton of cash. I may re-evaluate how many contrarian lineups I play moving forward. Ha! Luckily I also played some Saints stacks on the Thursday slate where the ownership was around 1%. I will continue to play 5-10 Thursday slate lineups with the huge opportunity that is available due to extreme ownership shifts to the Thursday game.

Now let’s look at the lineup construction:

QB – As I mentioned above, this was a late swap to Drew Brees. I originally had Palmer and Fitzgerald in the lineup but after Marquise Lee put up nothing more than a return TD, I decided I needed to try and separate myself from the field while also having a ton of upside. Enter Brees and the Saints who were coming off two horrible weeks in a row and went on the road. Brees was able to pick apart the Cardinals defense completing 37 of 48 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns.

RB – David Johnson was a staple in the lineup from the beginning regardless of his extreme $10K+ price tag. Notwithstanding game flow he continues to be an elite all-around back. He only rushed 12 times this week totaling just 53 yards but scored twice and also caught four of his five targets for an additional 55 yards. Devonta Freeman was also a staple in the lineup as I liked him all week leading up to this matchup. The Falcons were huge favorites to the worst rush defense in the league. It paid off as he rushed 20 times for 139 yards and three touchdowns. I was expecting much higher ownership from both of these running backs so I was thrilled when they were under 25%.

WR – With the cold forecast in Green Bay I turned some of my attention on a ton of my lineups to Ty Montgomery who was named the starting RB and projected for a ton of usage. He didn’t disappoint with 162 rushing yards with two trips to the endzone. Tyreke Hill was relatively cheap and comes with a ton of upside as he can score in so many ways. I felt he could expose a Titans back end that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month. Unfortunately, he saw his lowest target share (3) since week 7 and caught zero passes. Fortunately for me, he made the most of his lone rush taking it 68 yards for a touchdown. The same can be said for my value/punt play Marquise Lee who also caught zero of his three targets (lowest since Week 8). He made up a little value returning a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Then comes the GPP gem Brandin Cooks who was also a late swap with Brees. Ending the day with over 186 yards and seven receptions, he made the most damage in the first half where he recorded 127 yards and two touchdowns. At less than 3% owned in the $3-1.1 Million Dollar Play Action he hit at just over 6.5x value.

TE – I credit all the Ryan Griffin ownership to the projections and
lineup tool on the site as he truly stood out as a punt play with C.J. Fiedorowicz out with a concussion. Griffin was already a part of the offensive scheme and was sure to see an uptick in targets. He ended up catching all eight of his targets for 85 yards and 16.5 DraftKings points.

Overall, I am extremely satisfied with the results of my late swap as it ended up paying off in a big way and netting me my best week of the year. It’s always fun to look back and see how things were constructed and could be done different and it’s clear that I should have replaced Hill and Lee with two more balanced $5K players. You live, you learn.

Before moving on the Game Balls I wanted to mention my Monday night stack of Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. I can’t stress enough the opportunity available in targeting the Monday night game in the Thursday slate and at a little less extent the Sunday-Monday slate. Cam balled out on Monday night completing 21 of 30 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns. He was the 15th highest scoring player on the entire slate and came in at less than 1% owned.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Drew Brees – It’s no surprise the top two quarterbacks this week came from the highest scoring game of the week where a combined 89 points were scored. Brees bounced back in a big way after back to back games at home throwing zero touchdowns. He completed 37 of 48 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns leading the Saints to a win over the Cardinals.

Carson Palmer – In the same game, which turned into a barn burner, Palmer also bounced back after a season-low 145 yards in Week 14. He completed 28 of 40 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns, making him the second highest scoring QB of the week.

Cam Newton – It was a week of bounce back performances at the QB position. Newton threw for 300+ yards for the first time since Week 6 with just his second game with multiple touchdown passes in his last eight games.

RB
Devonta Freeman – As expected the Falcons went run heavy on the 49ers league-worst rush defense. They ended up with 248 total yards on the ground, 139 of which came from Freeman who got 20 carries and scored three times.

Ezekiel Elliott – MVP? He would most definitely get my vote. He shined once again on Sunday night against the Bucs rushing 23 times for 159 yards, his seventh 100+ yard game of the season. Talk about usage. He is the only running back in the league that has reached the 300 carry mark this season and has a league-leading 1,551 yards, over 300 yards clear of second place DeMarco Murray.

David Johnson – It didn’t look promising early as his teammate Kerwynn Williams took an early rush 49 yards for a touchdown. Johnson made up for it despite only getting 12 rushes for 53 yards as he scored twice on the ground and also caught four of his five targets in the passing game. While Elliot has the rushing lead, DJ has the all-purpose yards lead (1,938) as he leads all running backs with 800 yards receiving.

LeSean McCoy – I now realize I left out the second-highest scoring running back so I quickly went back and slammed it in here. McCoy took advantage of an optimal matchup against the Browns rushing for 153 yards and two touchdowns and once again had another touchdown vultured away by Mike Gillislee.

WR
Brandin Cooks – He was electric on Sunday as he caught seven of his eight targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns. His inconsistent play all year was a huge reason the ownership was so low, but he continues to show us the tremendous upside he offers for GPP’s.

Ty Montgomery – He was the starting running back for the Packers but was still listed as a wide receiver on DraftKings so that’s where he falls this week. Either way, he had a monster day in the freezing cold in Chicago. He received 16 carries and totaled 162 yards and two touchdowns.

Golden Tate – While the Lions were unable to score a touchdown and finished with just six points, Tate had a big day for the 2.5% that rostered him. He caught eight of his game-high 13 targets for 122 yards.

TE
Charles Clay – Clay had his best game of the season in Week 15 against the Browns catching all seven of his targets for 72 yards and has now scored a touchdown in back to back weeks. He also came in around 3% owned in tournaments.

Cameron Brate – Brate was at it again on Sunday with his seventh double-digit fantasy game of the season, five of which were 15+ point performances. Oh ya, and he has only been priced above $4K on DraftKings once.

Kyle Rudolph – Rudolph was about the only thing that was positive for the Vikings as he hauled in eight of his ten targets for 97 yards. He has received double-digit targets in three of the last four weeks as Sam Bradford continues to rely on the short passing game with little no time in the pocket.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the New York Jets in the Passing Game
Defense vs. the Pass – 30th
This week’s Matchup – New England Patriots

For the season the Jets rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass on Player Lab and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. For what it’s worth, it could be worse as they limited Kaepernick under 200 yards passing two weeks ago. Considering the Jets rank 3rd in Defense vs. the Rush, we can expect a ton of usage from Brady and passing game. Even with a sub 200-yard passing game last week, Brady is still averaging over 300-yard per game over his ten games this season with a 22-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He is the most expensive option on both sites this week which should limit the ownership making him an elite GPP play.

Target the Cleveland Browns vs. the Run
Defense vs. the Run – 32nd
This week’s Matchup – San Diego Chargers

Shady McCoy ripped the Browns defense last week for 153 yards and two touchdowns while the Bills totaled 280 yards in total on the ground. The Browns now rank dead last vs. the Run on Player Lab and it is pretty clear why. They have now allowed 100+ yards rushing in nine straight and 11 of their last 12 games including back to back games allowing over 200 yards on the ground.

This week they face the Chargers who have a tricky running back situation early in the week. Melvin Gordon is expected to practice on a limited basis with a chance to get back in the lineup this week. If he doesn’t go, there is going to be a huge opportunity for Kenneth Farrow to rebound after letting his fantasy owners down last week rushing for just 39 yards on 15 carries. Personally, I am hoping Gordon sits out as the combination of Farrow’s bad week 15 and rise in price will most certainly offer under 10% ownership in large field tournaments.

Thursday Night Football

New York Giants(10-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles(5-9)
Favorite – Giants(-2.5)
Vegas Total – 42

Offensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
NYG – 25th in Rushing(81.2 Yards/Game), 22nd in Passing(239.4 Yards/Game)
PHI – 9th in Rushing(112.9 Yards/Game), 26th in Passing(227.5 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
NYG – 5th vs. the Rush(90.1 Yards/Game), 3rd vs. the Pass(257.4 Yards/Game)
PHI – 15th vs. the Rush(104.9 Yards/Game), 2nd vs. the Pass(239.3 Yards/Game)

This week’s Thursday Night Football game takes us to a critical NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Giants in Philadelphia. The Eagles have fallen off the map losing five straight and seven of their last nine games.While they will not be going to the playoffs in 2016, they can try and play the role of spoiler as the Giants have yet to clinch their berth and can do so with a win and a Bucs or Packers loss.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s another case where I am going to push my strategy for avoiding the Thursday game in a Thursday-Monday slate and load up on the Monday night game. The ownership has been crazy over the last three weeks with players from the Thursday game filling the top 10 overall owned players. On the other hand, Tom Brady was the highest owned Monday QB over the past three weeks at just 3% owned.

If you just can’t fade the game completely, I would lean on the Giants passing game. The Eagles defense still ranks up there in DVOA defense but hasn’t fully adjusted to the second half of the season fall off. They have allowed the 6th most (DK) and 4th most (FD) fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. I would hesitate to use Eli Manning who offers little in terms of upside with just three games over 20 fantasy points. The ownership is going to be Top 5 for sure this week but Odell Beckham Jr. always makes a high upside play while Sterling Shepard would make a lower owned GPP option in this game.

For the Eagles, I would target Carson Wentz and Jordan Matthews. The price is low on both of them, but Wentz has targeted Matthews 10+ times in six of the Eagles last seven games. Zach Ertz also makes a safe tight end play as he ranks fifth at the position in targets per week (7.3) with double-digits in three of his last five weeks.

Another reason to jump on my “Fade the Thursday game” strategy is the fact that this is the second matchup between divisional rivals. This normally favors the defenses, which tends to sway me even more towards this being a low-scoring game. Looking at all the Thursday games this season (including Thanksgiving) the UNDER is 12-5 in 17 games played for what it’s worth.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab