NFL DFS Stack Targets – AFC/NFC Championship Games

Chris Durell

Well, we are now down to four teams and two games to determine who will battle for the Super Bowl. Normally, I would not get very excited about a two-game slate but this Sunday should be a lot of fun with tons of fantasy relevant plays. Not only are both games projected to be high scoring the Packers/Falcons game has a crazy high 60.5 Over/Under. Let’s take a look at each matchup and a few possible stacks for each team.

NFC Championship Game

Green Bay Packers (10-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Vegas Favorite – ATL (-5)
Over/Under – 60.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
ATL – 7th in Rushing (120.5 yards/game), 1st in Passing (295.3 yards/game)
GB – 5th in Rushing (106.3 yards/game), 7th in Passing (262.4 yards/game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
ATL – 29th vs. the Rush(104.5 yards/game), 19th vs. the Pass(266.7 yards/game)
GB – 14th vs. the Rush(94.7 yards/game), 22nd vs. the Pass(269.3 yards/game)

Like I mentioned above, this game has a crazy 60.5 Vegas Total and features two of the front-runners for the MVP award in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both quarterbacks led their teams to division championships with Top 5 offenses. Both finished inside the Top 5 in yards (Rodgers 4th with 4,428 and Ryan 2nd with 4,944) and finished 1st and 2nd in touchdowns. Here are my favorite plays and stacks from this game:

My favorite QB of this game, and the entire week, is easily Aaron Rodgers even with the question marks to his wide receivers. He was relied on by his team more than any other QB in the league this year with a crazy high 78% of his teams total touchdowns. This was due in large part to the non-existent run game, which is another reason I lean Rodgers as Matt Ryan has one of the top running back duo’s in the league behind him. Not that Ryan is a bad play, as no one that averaged 309 yards passing per game with a crazy high 9.3 yards per attempt could be faded with just four options remaining. Not only that, he threw touchdowns to 13 different receivers this year, an NFL record. For running backs, I will have a ton of exposure to Ty Montgomery and Tevin Coleman this week. They both come in that second tier and allow you to pay up for a high-end QB/WR stack with another elite player. Montgomery is coming off his second-best game of the season where he rushed 11 times for 47 yards and two touchdowns and also caught six of his seven targets for an additional 34 yards. For Coleman, it comes down to the savings you get off Freeman with very similar upside. Freeman has out-touched (39-28) and out targeted (18-11) Coleman over the Falcons last three games but it has been Coleman with the extra TD (3-2). There just isn’t enough difference in production between the two to warrant a $2,400 and $1,700 difference on DraftKings & FanDuel, especially on a small slate in a game projected for 60+ points.

Favorite Green Bay Stack – Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery, Jared Cook

Favorite Atlanta Stack – Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Tevin Coleman

Game Prediction – ATL 34 GB 31

AFC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) vs. New England Patriots(14-2)
Vegas Favorite – NE(-6)
Over/Under – 50.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
PIT – 8th in Rushing(110.0 yards/game), 8th in Passing(262.6 yards/game)
NE – 17th in Rushing(117.0 yards/game), 2nd in Passing(269.3 yards/game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
PIT – 11th vs. the Rush(100.0 yards/game), 12th vs. the Pass(242.6 yards/game)
NE – 4th vs. the Rush(88.6 yards/game), 23rd vs. the Pass(237.9 yards/game)

Sunday night brings us a matchup of two elite, veteran quarterbacks with six combined Super Bowl rings. While the game doesn’t have a Vegas Total of 60+, it is still very high for a playoff game at 50.5 points. When looking at stacking this weekend between the two games, this will be the game I have the least exposure to. Although the results from earlier this year are slightly skewed as Big Ben was out, there were some definite takeaways. Antonio Brown was barely slowed down catching seven balls for 107 yards with Landry Jones at quarterback. Even with a target on his back Le’Veon Bell was able to pick up 81 yards on the ground with an additional 68 yards through the air. He is virtually matchup-proof but the real question on a two-game slate is whether you are willing to pay a $9.5K+ price tag? He was much easier to construct a lineup with the last two weeks where there were four games and eight teams to find value. This week it is going to be nearly impossible to to have more than a couple Bell lineups as the overall roster upside is capped with limited value plays.

If you are looking for the top plays out of this game look no further than each team’s top wide receiver. They are ranked #1 & #2 in projected targets out of both games which should come as no surprise as they both averaged right around 10 targets per game during the regular season. If you are looking at the Patriots run game the most popular choice will be Dion Lewis who picked up three touchdowns in last week’s win(one rushing, one receiving, one return). It is tough to separate yourself on a small slate but my recommendation would be to fade Lewis for LeGarrette Blount in tournaments. Take the lower owned, less expensive option Blount who scored 18 touchdowns in the regular season and should see10+ touches in a game the Patriots should win at home. While his game vs. the Texans looked disappointing for the most part, he averaged 3.9 yards per carry while Lewis averaged just 3.2 yards per carry.

Favorite New England Stack – Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, LeGarrette Blount

Favorite Pittsburgh Stack – Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Eli Rogers

Game Prediction – NE 27 PIT 21

I would like to thank all of you for reading my articles all year and can’t wait for next year. If you have any questions at any time be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@jager_Bombs9) @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab