NFL Jersey Sales By State
Which NFL jerseys are most popular in each state? The map above released by Dick’s Sporting Goods tells us quite a bit.
Here in Bronco country, where every other advertisement is an NFL Madden spot with Von Miller at the helm, its no surprised that 5 states in the mountain time zone are all Von Miller fans.
But what else can we learn? Some pretty interesting stuff actually. For instance, would you believe that Luke Keuchly out-sells Cam Newton in Carolina?
Other interesting tidbits:
1) Odell Beckham Jr. is king of Nevada
2) Alaska loves Julio Jones
3) Gronkasaurus Rex holds down Maine
4) Cam Newton’s jersey is #1 in Utah… not the Carolinas
5) Drew Brees’ kingdom extends into Mississippi and Alabama
Some of these make sense, some don’t. But there is almost always clear regional bias. After all, Maine is just New England’s Hat.
And aside from the few outliers, the vast majority of states love their star QB’s, Receivers, and Running Backs.
This paints one of the fundamental pictures of why professional Fantasy Football players study this data. Understanding bias.
We are all biased creatures, and that is ok. But recognizing it and removing it is critical in the Daily Fantasy world. That is if you care about your hard-earned money.
Irrational regional and recency bias are some of the most powerful psychological tools a DFS player can employ. How many Atlanta fans are going to roster Julio every Sunday? How many times have you heard “So-and-So is the GOAT/WOAT/whatever”. Or one of my favorites: “I’m never using [Insert Name] ever again.”
Recency bias is crucial. After a poor performance, the swath of fish in DFS land start complaining that “So-and-So is a complete bum, washed out, worthless”.
I can’t tell you how excited this makes me.
As SOON as a player has a significantly bad game, my ears perk up. I’ll review the footage, the numbers, and try to make a cold and heartless decision. Was this performance due to bad luck? Bad calls? Is there a personal life issue at hand? Scandal, divorce, or major contract negotiations? I’m not sure if you have played sports before, but it can be a pretty damn tough mental game too. When things get into players heads, they forget how to throw the ball to first. Or catch a 6-yard pass. Or they start duck-hooking every single golf ball into the pond.
When I come across situations like this, I pay very close attention to the context of his performance and try to determine if it was a fluke or potentially a short period regression. Because at some point, maybe even soon, I’m a buyer.
And of course, if a poor performance was precipitated by a real injury, a slow arm-death, or some other ‘real and obvious’ factor- then yes I’ll avoid the player too. Knowing who to avoid is just as important as picking the low-owned-soon-to-be GOATs.
Let’s think about the opposite side of the coin for a second- if an average or below average player has a huge breakout game, recency bias comes into play again. Look at the context. Did he get more looks/targets/at-bats? (FYI, you can easily see this in NFL Player Lab under the column “Target Trends”) Did someone get benched/injured? Was there a personnel change that could set this player up for a huge uptick in performance? Or was it just a random 95-yard play?
In the end, we must determine who to avoid (and buy) by trying to enter the mind of the fish, but never becoming one. Watch the Twitterverse, forums, TV segments, etc. Try to visualize who everyone will be running towards or away from with their mad-cow disease fantasy sports mentality. Remember friends, buy low and sell high. Markets are irrational. Use regional, recency, and just plain naive biases to your favor, always. This is how DFS millionaires are made!