NFL Lineup Optimizer Picks and Recap – 10/12/16

Chris Durell & James Leer

In this early week article, I am going to cover a few recaps from some of the prior week’s top matchups in the “What We Learned” section along with some defense vs. position rankings. I will then preview the Thursday night game from a DFS perspective if you just can’t wait until Sunday. Finally, I will have a look at each position and a few players to think about early in the week before giving you my top QB/WR stacks on Thursday/Friday.

For those interested, we also have a video summary of this article located here.

What We Learned

Going to start this week with the most talked about game of the week. The return of Tom Brady! He picked up right where he left off and was amazing completing 28 of 40 passes for 406 yards and threw three touchdowns. Gronk also returned to a full snap count share and had a great day (5 of 7 for 109 yards), but it was the Pats other TE Martellus Bennett catching all three of Tom’s touchdowns. He actually out-targeted Gronk 8-7 catching six balls for 67 yards. With two big TE targets plus WR Julian Edelman who should start to get more involved, it will be tough to decide which option is optimal on a week to week basis. On the other hand, Brady looks fully capable of producing fantasy results for multiple targets. Follow the Player Lab closely to maximize your chances with matchups.

It was another big day for the Pittsburgh Steelers who pulled away in the second half for a 31-13 win over the Jets. Big Ben was very impressive once again completing 34 of 47 pass attempts for 380 yards and four more touchdowns. That is now nine touchdowns in the last two weeks. The monster performance came not from Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown but rookie speedster Sammie Coates who caught six of 11 targets for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Bell had a less than impressive day running the ball with just 66 yards on 20 carries (3.3 Avg) but caught nine of his 11 targets for 88 yards to salvage his fantasy day. He will continue to be an elite option with no game flow restrictions. Antonio Brown didn’t have a monster game like Coates but very productive also catching nine of his 11 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. With the TE landscape a very tough one to predict on a weekly basis you can rely on the cheap option in Jesse James who has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games and ended up with a season-high eight targets on Sunday. The Steelers should continue to be a high-volume offense with multiple viable fantasy options.

The Player Lab Tool was all over the Chargers/Raiders game with a high total last week and neither team disappointed. In a losing effort, Philip Rivers completed 21 of 30 for 359 yards and four touchdowns. Melvin Gordon looked better running the ball with 69 yards on 16 carries (4.3 Avg) and also caught his only target for a touchdown. Rivers did a good job spreading the ball around to his WR’s with Tyrell Williams catching five of his six targets for 117 yards and a touchdown and Travis Benjamin catching seven of his 11 targets for 117 yards. Tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry split targets and both recorded a touchdown. Henry being the younger and faster of the two had a bigger day through the air averaging 24.7 yards per catch while Gates averaged just 7.5 yards per catch.

On the other side of the ball, Derek Carr continued to provide nice value despite completing just 25 of his 40 passes. He did record 317 yards and tossed two touchdowns. With a weak defense the volume for Carr is going to be there all season. I was on Amari Cooper all last week as a top play at WR with most people most likely turning to the red-hot Crabtree. It was Cooper having the much better day catching six of his 12 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown. If he can start hauling in more of those targets he will have even more monster days ahead. If you did play Crabtree over Cooper he ended up salvaging his day with a touchdown, catching three of his seven targets. Crabtree has been the better of the two when the Raiders get close to the goal line as he has caught four of his five end zone targets for touchdowns, while Cooper has caught zero of his five targets in the box.

Other Notable Things to Take Away from Last Week

David Johnson continued to prove he is an elite, workhorse RB in the NFL after rushing for 157 yards on 27 carries (5.8 Avg) while picking up two touchdowns. He also received six targets and sits tied for 5th among RB’s with 27 on the season.

For the 49ers RB Carlos Hyde picked up another rushing touchdown and added 78 yards on 22 carries (3.5 Avg) vs. a tough defense in the Cardinals.

With Blaine Gabbert having another unproductive game it will be Colin Kaepernik behind center this week. It will be best to avoid all 49ers outside of Hyde until we see how the offense is going to run with Kaep at QB.

I was dead wrong about the Eagles as Carson Wentz finally threw his first interception and the Eagles finally lost a game. Who knew those things were correlated. (LOL.) Surely something is amidst when Nelson Agholor lead the team in targets with seven. Moving on.

Not much to talk about on the Lions side of things. Stafford threw for under 200 yards but recorded three touchdowns and no interceptions. Theo Riddick struggled rushed for 49 yards on 11 carries(4.5 Avg) and also caught all six of the targets he was thrown for 33 yards and two touchdowns.

One of the top QB’s from a PTS/$ perspective going into the week did everything we expected. Brian Hoyer performed well completing 33 of 43 passes for 397 yards and two touchdowns. Oddly enough the leader in targets was Cameron Meredith who caught nine of his 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown.

Jordan Howard had another big day rushing for 118 yards on just 16 carries (7.4 avg). Keep targeting the Colts defense with RB’s.

Andrew Luck was better throwing for 322 yards and two touchdowns but got sacked another five times this week as the offensive continues to struggle. TY Hilton was his primary target as he caught 10 of his 11 targets for an impressive 171 yards and a touchdown. TE Dwayne Allen was also impressive catching all six of his targets for 50 yards and a touchdown.

The Titans defense or rather the lack of offense for the Dolphins was the focus of the game as they only mustered 200 yards of offense.

The Titans, on the other hand, had just under 400 yards with 121 coming on the ground from DeMarco Murray who sits 2nd in league rushing with 461 yards. He out carried Derrick Henry 27-7 on Sunday.

In another defensive battle, the Redskins defeated the Ravens 16-10. Jordan Reed (Was) and Mike Wallace (Bal) led all pass catchers with 11 targets for their teams but no one had over 100 yards on the day. It was also odd to see Terrance West only receive 11 carries considering he turned them into 95 yards (8.6 Avg).

The one takeaway from Vikings/Texans game? The Vikings are an elite defensive unit and targeting against them is going to be a -EV proposition on a week to week basis. They are one of only four teams in the NFL to hold their opponents under 300 yards per week on average. DeAndre Hopkins got a late touchdown but was completely shut down for the most part with just five receptions on nine targets for 56 yards.

The Minnesota running game is going to be a tough one to nail each week with Matt Asiata possibly holding the best value as he gets the majority of goal line touches making him a touchdown dependant flex option or punt play.

The Falcons upset the Broncos at home ending their undefeated streak. It was mainly a defensive battle with fantasy points mostly coming from the Falcons running backs. Devonta Freeman rushed for 88 yards and touchdown while Tevin Coleman caught four of his six targets for a whopping 132 yards and a touchdown.

Emmanuel Sanders continues to own the Broncos target share with 51 on the season to Demaryius Thomas’s 34.

The Cowboys rolled over the Bengals on the back of their rookie star running back Ezekiel Elliott who rushed for 134 yards on 15 carries (8.9 Avg) and added two touchdowns. He leads the NFL in rushing with 546 yards and already had five rushes that exceeded 20+ yards. ELITE!

The Cowboys defense pretty much shut down the Bengals in every facet which lead to Brandon Lafell having his one good game a month with 68 yards receiving and two touchdowns. He is a boom or bust punt play on a week to week basis with defenses having to clamp down on AJ Green.

LeSean McCoy was another running back who went crazy on Sunday rushing for 150 yards on 18 carries (8.3 Avg) while Todd Gurley rushed for 72 yards on 22 carries (3.1 Avg) but picked up two touchdowns.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

I have added this section now that we have more than a one-game sample size. I will take a look at some top defenses to target at each position based on their early play and compared to last years ranks. For the Def vs. Pos Rankings I will be using the Player Lab Tool on the website. Let’s take a look.

Target RB against Detroit Lions
This weeks Matchup – Los Angeles Rams
Def vs. Pass – 32nd
Def vs. Rush – 31st

Looking at the Player Lab Tool going into Week 6 the one thing that sticks out is that the Lions rank right at the bottom against the Pass and Run. They have allowed a total of 378 yards per game (263.4 passing, 114.8 rushing). While the Rams offense has been one of the weakest in the league, this may be the week we see a breakout performance from Todd Gurley. He is getting the volume (105 attempts) but has struggled rushing for a low 2.7 average.

Target the Miami Dolphins
This weeks Matchup – Pittsburgh Steelers
Def vs. Pass – 29th
Def vs. Rush – 12th

The Dolphins have struggled through five weeks of the season with a 1-4 record and rank out as one of the worst defenses in the league allowing over 400 yards per game to the opposition. In each game this year they have either allowed a 100+ rusher or a 100+ receiver and rank as the top pace team when looking at opponents plays allowed per game (73.2). Things will not get any easier this week as they face the Steelers and Big Ben who has thrown for nine touchdowns over the last two weeks. They also have elite RB Le’Veon Bell back two weeks ago and he has already accumulated 210 yards rushing and 122 yards receiving on 17 targets. Load up on The Steelers this week.

Thursday Night Football

This Thursday brings us a division matchup between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers. The Broncos sit atop the AFC West tied with the Raiders while the Chargers sit in the basement at 1-4 after a barrage of injuries early in the season. The Broncos look like they will be starting Trevor Siemian who is returning from a shoulder injury. There are really only two fantasy options to consider for the Broncos tonight. Emmanuel Sanders has controlled the target share with 51 targets through five weeks while Demaryius Thomas has only received 34 on the season. At running back, C.J. Anderson is a great play as the game flow should dictate a heavy workload. The Broncos are currently -3 favorites, and if I had to bet today, I would easily take them to cover with their elite defense. This gives Anderson one of the highest projected attempts on the week (18.53) and is also tied for 15th among running backs with 19 targets in the passing game.

On the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers makes sense as the Chargers should be trailing in the second half leading to 35+ attempts. He has been excellent this season despite losing his #1 WR (Keenan Allen) and top RB (Danny Woodhead) in the passing game. He sits 4th in the league with 1,469 passing yards and has averaged the second-most yards per attempt (8.54) through five weeks. The target share has been split almost evenly between Travis Benjamin(39) and Tyrell Williams(34) with Williams coming off the 100 yard game and touchdown and is the much better play on DraftKings at only $4,000. Denver has been elite against the pass this year but struggled against the run allowing 115.4 yards per game. Melvin Gordon makes a viable option as he has received 14+ carries in each game (299 yards/6 TD) and has seen a total of 18 targets (122 yards/1 TD) this season.

Week 5 Top Games to Target

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) vs. Miami Dolphins
Over/Under – 48

The Player Lab definitely favors the Steelers as they are a much better team and early 9 point favorites. Ben Roethlisberger is an elite option this week against the Dolphins who rank 29th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool while allowing an extremely high 73.2 plays per game. Over the last two weeks Big Ben has dominated throwing for 680 yards and nine touchdowns and 29+ fantasy points per week on both sites. The Steelers will be a team that I will consider a full team stack in a few different combinations. I like Big Ben with Antonio Brown and Jesse James or Coates and Bell with Big Ben or Coates and Brown with Big Ben. Yep, I am all in on the Steelers and will have at least five different combinations going in GPP formats.

On the other side of the ball, I am only looking at the passing game which should have a ton of volume, especially in garbage time. Look for a bounce back game from Jarvis Landry who had his double-digit target streak broken last week. He still sits 8th in that department for the season. If you are looking for a punt play, consider Kenny Stills who is very boom or bust as a deep threat play but will be most likely less than 2% owned.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Over/Under – 48

With just three afternoon games this week this matchup should be the focus of most everyone’s attention. It has a high over/under (compared to rest of slate) matching up two one-loss teams near the top of the NFC. Aaron Rodgers has seen his price drop to the low $7K mark after four straight sub 300-yard passing games. He has still been able to salvage decent fantasy days with nine touchdown passes and 17 rushes with two additional touchdowns. If you are looking for a near sure thing, get Jordy Nelson back in your lineup as he has been red hot to start the year with a touchdown in each of his first four games. Randall Cobb makes a better GPP play as he will be much lower owned and cheaper and coming off a big week catching nine balls on 11 targets for 108 yards. It was his first 100-yard game since September last year. Eddie Lacy is considered day to day right now and would be risky even if he starts. James Starks makes a decent punt play if Lacy is held out.

The Cowboys come in as underdogs but have some intriguing fantasy options this week. Despite the tough matchup, Ezekiel Elliott is an elite play at RB who leads the league in rushing through five weeks and has gotten better each week. That is scary considering he is just five games into his career. While I wouldn’t consider stacking the Cowboys in tournaments, I would consider some pieces as excellent cash game options. Dak Prescott is affordable on both sites and while he is limited in the offense, he doesn’t turn the ball over and has scored 17+ fantasy points in four straight weeks on both sites. Cole Beasley carries the same cash game tag as his ceiling is limited, but he does offer a nice floor for the price and ranks high on a PTS/$ basis. He leads the Cowboys with 33 targets on the season, and it looks very unlikely that Dez Bryant will play this week.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the weekend.