NFL Lineup Optimizer Picks and Recap – 10/5/16

Chris Durell

In this early week article, I am going to cover a few recaps from some of the prior week’s top daily fantasy matchups in the “What We Learned” section along with some defense vs. position rankings. I will then preview the Thursday night game from a DFS perspective if you can’t wait until Sunday. Finally, I will have a look at each position and a few players to think about early in the week for your optimized lineups before giving you my top QB/WR stacks on Thursday/Friday.

What We Learned

The Minnesota Vikings moved to 4-0 after a Monday Night Football victory over the New York Giants. Running Backs for both teams were the fantasy story Monday night as the Vikings Jerick McKinnon received 18 carries and ran for 85 yards (4.7 Avg) with a touchdown while the Giants Orleans Darkwa ran it 12 times for 48 yards (4.0 Avg) and a touchdown. Rookie RB Paul Perkins also broke out for a big play in the passing game with a 67-yard screen pass. Look for him to get more involved as the season goes on. Kyle Rudolph continues to show he is an elite option at TE with five catches on seven targets for 55 yards and another touchdown. One of the biggest things we learned in this game was that Xavier Rhodes can shut down the best WR’s in the game. After blanking out Kelvin Benjamin in week three, he shut down Odell Beckham Jr. in week four. Avoid WR’s all together at the moment against the Vikings.

The Panthers/Falcons game saw a late week Vegas line movement as the Over/Under rose close to five points on many sites. It’s like they knew what was coming as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones torched the Panthers on Sunday. Ryan completed 28 of 37 passes for 503 yards and four touchdowns while Julio caught 12 of 15 targets for 300 yards and a touchdown. At RB Devonta Freeman out carried Tevin Coleman 13-8 while picking up the rushing touchdown. Look for Freeman to get the larger share of the touches this week as Coleman deals with a sickle cell trait which can be affected by high altitudes like in Denver. As for the Panthers it was another disappointing loss as they fell to 1-3 on the season. Cam Newton suffered a concussion on a rush attempt in the 4th Quarter and is considered day to day until they release an injury report on Thursday. If Cam is out it may be best to avoid the Panthers offense in their upcoming MNF matchup with the Bucs.

Sunday Night Football saw two elite RB return to action as Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs took on Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Charles was limited as he was returning from an injury and only saw two carries and just one target. He now gets a bye week to get back to full health. Bell, on the other hand, returned from suspension and appeared to be in peak physical form. He got a full workload with 18 carries, rushing for 144 yards (8.0 Avg) and also caught five of his six targets for 34 yards. Antonio Brown saw just five targets on Sunday night due to the fact the Steelers got up early and ran the ball. Markus Wheaton and Darius Heyward-Bey also vultured some fantasy points from the big boys as both of them caught their only targets of the game for touchdowns while DeAngelo Williams received just four carries but ran one in for a touchdown.

Other Notable Things to Take Away from Last Week

AJ Green had a monster night on Thursday Night Football catching 12 of his 14 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown.

Jeremy Hill received 21 carries as the Bengals had the lead but ran for just 71 yards (3.4 Avg).

Andrew Luck struggled once again going 27 for 42 for just 234 yards while getting sacked six times. You can safely avoid the Colts until they show they can protect him and give him time to throw.

Allen Robinson saved his fantasy day by recording a touchdown after catching just five of his ten targets for 55 yards on Sunday.

Jordan Howard was the highlight in the Lions/Bears game as he rushed 23 times for 111 yards (4.8 Avg) and also caught three of his four targets in the passing game. His price has gone up, but as long as he is going to be heavily involved, regardless of game flow, he will be a top option from a PTS/$ perspective.

Isaiah Crowell continued to prove he’ss one of the best RB in the NFL with his second 100+ yard game in four weeks for the Browns. He sits second in league rushing and first in average yards per carry (6.5).

Terrelle Pryor was good in the first half catching a touchdown but was shut down in the second half when Josh Norman shadowed him.

DeMarco Murray had another big day as he picked up 25 carries for 95 yards with two touchdowns while also catching both of his targets in the passing game. He appears to be the bell cow back with Henry in a full backup role for now. Murray looks safe in all formats on a week to week basis.

Jimmy Graham is back in our fantasy good books with back to back 100+ yard games. Even with Russell Wilson at less than 100%, Graham was still able to catch six of his eight targets for 113 yards.

The Bills defense smothered the Patriots on Sunday but take little away as Tom Brady will now be returning which will boost the value of every single offensive player on the team.

Derek Carr didn’t accumulate the yards (199) on Sunday vs. the Ravens but did throw four touchdowns, with three of them going to Michael Crabtree who caught seven of his team-high 12 targets. Crabtree has now seen double-digit targets in back to back weeks while Amari Cooper hasn’t seen double-digit targets since week one.

On the Ravens side of things, the big story was Terrence West who held the bulk of the load at RB on Sunday with 21 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown. He will be the early-down pounder from here on out as the Ravens have released Justin Forsett.

The Rams/Cardinals game was an uneventful one from a fantasy standpoint as there were only three touchdowns in the game with two of them going to the Rams Brian Quick. The other going to Michael Floyd of the Cards.

David Johnson received 17 carries, rushing for 83 yards (4.9 Avg) while catching all four of his targets. He is another RB that can be trusted weekly as he is getting the bell cow work at RB.

The Cowboys rolled over the 49ers with Dak Prescott throwing two more touchdowns while still not throwing an interception. Not turning the ball over is the name of the game in big D.

The other key for the Cowboys was RB Ezekiel Elliott who is getting better every game. He rushed 23 times for 138 yards (6.0 Avg) and added a touchdown.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

I have added this section now that we have more than a one-game sample size. I will take a look at some top defenses to target at each position based on their early play and compared to last years ranks. For the Def vs. Pos rankings I will be using the Player Lab Tool on the website. Let’s take a look.

Target the Oakland Raiders
This week’s Matchup – San Diego Chargers
Def vs. Pass – 29th
Def vs. Rush – 26th

If you have been targeting the Raiders this season you have probably fared quite well. They rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game (325.5) and second last in rushing yards allowed per game (134.5). They have allowed opponents to score 27+ points in three of their four games and get another matchup with high scoring potential this week vs. the Chargers. These two teams are two of only five teams in the NFL to score and allow 100+ points on the season. Melvin Gordon should get a little more space this week while Philip Rivers should once again exceed 300+ yards with three viable WR options in Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, and Dontrelle Inman. Don’t forget about TE Hunter Henry who has caught nine balls on 12 targets over the last two weeks.

Target the Washington Redskins in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Baltimore Ravens
Def vs. Rush – 32nd

Through four weeks the Redskins rank dead last in defense vs. the rush. They have allowed an average of 133 yards per game and have faced a Steelers team without Lev Bell, a Cowboys team working in rookie Zeke Elliott, a Giants team with multiple “average at best” runnings backs and a Browns team who is splitting the carries. They will face the Ravens this week who just finished releasing Justin Forsett after Terrance West who tore it up Sunday with 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Look for another heavy workload in a great matchup this week.

Thursday Night Football

This week’s Thursday Night Football game could be a low-scoring affair. I say this expecting Carson Palmer to sit out with a concussion he suffered on Sunday. If he is indeed out it will be backup Drew Stanton at QB for the Cardinals. He was awful after relieving Palmer on Sunday completing just four of his 11 passes for 37 yards and two interceptions. The 49ers defense could have a hay day on Thursday. While I wouldn’t consider rostering any of the receiving options for the Cards, I do think David Johnson will once again see his share of carries and gets a matchup vs. the 49ers who have allowed a league-worst 140 rushing yards per game through four weeks.

The fantasy outlook for the 49ers isn’t much better as they are lead by Blaine Gabbert who has completed less than 60% of his passes through four weeks. His top target has been Jeremy Kerley with 32 targets. Kerley missed Monday’s practice and was seen limping around which would increase the targets for Torrey Smith and possibly Quinton Patton but I would avoid the passing game altogether. Like the Cardinals, I think the 49ers top fantasy option on Thursday is going to be RB Carlos Hyde. Through four weeks Hyde has rushed for 299 yards and five touchdowns. He hasn’t been targeted a great deal in the passing game(8), but that could change Thursday if Kerley is out.

So unless you are trying to be super sneaky, I would only consider rostering the defenses and running backs on Thursday night.

Week 5 Top Games to Target

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders

As I always I gravitate to the highest projected Vegas total. Early in the week this game sits around 50 in most spots and should have a ton of fantasy options on both sides of the ball. As I mentioned above in the Defense vs. Position breakdown, the Raiders rank right near the bottom against the pass and the rush. Philip Rivers will be one of my top QB’s this week at $6,900 on DraftKings and $8,300 on FanDuel. He has attempted 6+ pass attempts in three of his first four starts and thrown seven touchdowns with just one interception. He spreads the ball around extremely well this season without the services of Keenan Allen so stacking him with one WR is a tough thing to do. His top options have been Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams who have both seen 6+ targets in each of the last three weeks. A sneaky punt play on DraftKings ($4,100) is Dontrelle Inman who caught seven balls on 11 targets last week for 120 yards and a touchdown. Melvin Gordon was disappointing last week in the sense that he only averaged 1.9 yards per carry but made up for it with two touchdowns and also caught six of seven targets he received. That is two weeks in a row with seven targets. The price has gone up, but he is clearly being leaned on week in and week out. If Antonio Gates continues to struggle with injuries, Hunter Henry makes a fantastic value play at TE. Over the last two weeks, he has caught nine of his 12 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders have been an extremely effective team to start the season as they sit 3-1 on the back of their offense who have scored the 3rd most points (108) in the AFC. They will continue to provide value in fantasy until their defense improves as they need to keep up to stay in these games which ranks them right up there in pace. Derek Carr continues to sit in the second tier of pricing on both sites and has attempted 35+ passes in each of the first four games with nine touchdowns and just one interception. Over the last two weeks, it has been Michael Crabtree leading the way with 15 receptions on 23 targets for 190 yards and three touchdowns. He is also still $300 cheaper than Amari Cooper on both sites. With a RBBC in the backfield and no real TE threat the Raiders make a nice three headed stacking option. The matchup isn’t the greatest as the Chargers rank 18th in Defense vs. the Pass, but the volume will be there this week.

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

Early in the week, the Packers are -7 home favorites and if you are a sports bettor I would lock that in as I see it climbing as the weekend approaches. The Giants are coming off a Monday night loss to the Vikings where they were dominated and now have to travel to Green Bay to face the Packers who are coming off a bye week. Going into their bye week we saw their offense explode on the Lions as Eddie Lacy led the way with his first 100+ yard game of the season. Aaron Rodgers didn’t accumulate the yards due to game flow and field position but racked up four touchdown passes with two going to his BFF Jordy Nelson who caught six of his seven targets for 101 yards. The Giants also present a nice matchup as they rank 28th in Defense vs. the Pass. If the Packers get ahead early look for Eddie Lacy to get another 15+ carries and it’s possible he could record back-to-back 100-yard games.

The Packers should be ahead for most of this game which is going to force the Giants to throw the ball a ton. I am not really on Eli even with the pass attempt projection above 40 this week as he has tossed it up 35+ times in three of four games this season and has yet to record 20 fantasy points. If you are looking for some high upside/ownership WR this week consider Odell Beckham Jr. who is coming off a dud vs. the Vikings where he faced a tough corner in Xavier Rhodes. He will get a much better matchup vs. the Packers this week. If the Packers do decide to blanket OBJ it will be Sterling Shepard at a much lower price who could go off. He has seen 26 targets this season and recorded double-digit fantasy points in three of four games this season.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my Favorite Stacking options for the weekend.