NFL Lineup Optimizer Picks and Recap – 9/28/16

Chris Durell

In this early week article, I am going to cover a few recaps from some of the prior week’s top matchups in the “What We Learned” section along with some defense vs. position rankings. I will then preview the Thursday night game from a DFS perspective if you just can’t wait until Sunday. Finally, I will have a look at each position and a few players to think about early in the week before giving you my top QB/WR stacks on Thursday/Friday.




What We Learned

This week we are going to start with the Monday Night Football game. It had the highest projected total of the entire week and didn’t disappoint as the two NFC South teams combined for 77 points. The game flow for Atlanta didn’t exactly go as planned if you played Matt Ryan as much as I did (equally as painful as I needed just one more TD pass from him to win in 3 season-long leagues). He completed 20 of 30 passes for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception and continued to look like an elite option. The Falcons took the lead early and ended up running the ball a ton with Devonta Freeman (14 carries for 152 yards) and Tevin Coleman (12 carries for 42 yards & 3 TD). Freeman(5) and Coleman(3) also combined to lead the team in targets. Julio had a rough night catching just one ball on seven looks and appeared not to be 100% healthy. Look for a bounce back game in week four at possibly very low-ownership. On the other side of the ball, the game flow worked in the Saints favor for fantasy purposes as their defense proves to be one of the worst in the league. Brees completed 36 of 54 passes for 376 yards and three touchdowns with Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas both receiving 11 targets with Willie Snead out. Both made seven receptions and recorded a touchdown. Mark Ingram looked much better rushing 15 times for 77 yards (5.1 avg) and also had a touchdown vultured by none other than John “Kuuuuuuhn.”

In the Vikings/Panthers game, we learned that it was Jerick McKinnon, not Matt Asiata, who benefited from the Peterson loss as he got 16 carries against the Panthers. He only gained 45 yards, but Carolina is a top-ranked team against the run themselves. We also learned that as long as Sam Bradford is healthy Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph will be very viable fantasy options. Rudolph trails only the Panthers Greg Olsen in targets at the position with 26 on the season and hasn’t received fewer than eight in any game so far. The Panthers struggled all around as Cam Newton was sacked eight times and threw three interceptions. Look for a bounce back against the Falcons on Sunday.

The Packers/Lions game was another high total that didn’t let us down. The Packers offense looked terrific with Eddie Lacy getting on track with 17 carries for 103 yards(6.1 Avg). Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to throw for volume on Sunday with just 205 pass yards, but he did throw for four touchdowns. Jordy Nelson was the beneficiary of two of those end zone strikes as he caught six balls on seven targets for 101 yards. Rodgers was very locked in on Jordy all game as no other receiver got more than three targets. Matt Stafford continued his hot start to the season throwing for 385 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers. He now sits third in passing yards (985), 6th in attempts (120) and Completion% (67.5) while sitting tied for 2nd in touchdowns with seven. He has clearly dialed in with Marvin Jones Jr. who has emerged as the #1 WR in Detroit. He caught six of his eight targets for a whopping 205 yards and two touchdowns Sunday. Jones sits 10th in the NFL in targets (29), 1st in yards (408) and sits with a crazy 22.7 yards per catch average.

There was a lot to be learned in the Bengals/Broncos game this week. Jeremy Hill finally broke out for the Bengals rushing 17 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns. He out carried Bernard 17-5 but it was, as expected, Bernard involved in the passing attack catching all five of his targets. It is going to be a tough pick between them each week and will mostly depend on game flow. AJ Green appeared a bit off Sunday and called himself out for a critical drop late in the game along with a few other missteps. He was still able to catch eight balls on targets for 77 yards but didn’t get in the end zone.

There was also a breakout game for the Broncos on Sunday as Trevor Siemian completed 25 of 35 passes for 312 yards and four touchdowns. He helped both of his top receivers have big as well with Emmanuel Sanders catching nine balls on 13 targets for 117 yards and two touchdowns while Demaryius Thomas caught six of seven for 100 yards and a touchdown. The volume in the air could have had something to do with the off day of CJ Anderson who only mustered 37 yards on 14 carries (2.6 Avg). It doesn’t get any easier for CJ this week as the Broncos head to Tampa Bay to face the Bucs who are allowing under 100 yards per game on the ground.

Other Notable Things to Take Away from Last Week

If Rashad Jennings (NYG) does not return this weekend it will be Orleans Darkwa who will get the bulk of the work in the Giants backfield as Shane Vereen is now also out with injury.

Odell Beckham Jr. had his way with Josh Norman for the most part, and caught seven balls on 11 targets for 121 yards. Sterling Shepard continues to hold high value as the Giants #2 catching five of seven targets for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Ezekiel Elliott had a ton of volume on Sunday night with 30 carries while racking up 140 yards on the ground and also caught both his targets for another 20 yards receiving. His day could have been bigger Dak Prescott, Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar all vultured touchdowns. Look for big things from Zeke moving forward.

In Tennessee we saw DeMarco Murray edge out Derrick Henry 16-10 in carries and 145-45 in yards. Murray also caught all five of his targets for 41 receiving yards. Murray remains the only viable RB option for the Titans in DFS.

Terrelle Pryor was superb for the Browns last week going ⅗ passing for 35 yards, rushing four times for 21 yards and a touchdown and also catching eight of his 14 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. He can do it all and now sits 7th in the league in targets from a WR.

Jarvis Landry remains as one of only four WR left who has received double-digit targets each week after catching seven of his 12 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown. He is an elite playmaker and should be safe in cash games week in and week out.

In Tampa Bay, it was Mike Evans showing us his floor with another 13 targets and his upside catching 10 of them for 120 yards and a touchdown. He sits 2nd in targets (37) behind Antonio Brown. A sleeper option moving forward for the Bucs could be Adam Humphries who has seen his targets rise each week in the slot and caught nine of 12 this week for 100 yards.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

I have added this section now that we have more than a one-game sample size. I will take a look at some top defenses to target at each position based on their early play and compared to last years ranks. I won’t always list the bottom feeders but rather the teams that make excellent targets going into the next week. Let’s take a look.

Target the Atlanta Falcons
This weeks Matchup – Carolina Panthers

I am starting here for a few reasons. First, the Falcons have been involved in three straight shootouts allowing no less than 28 points in a game. They rank 29th in the league after three weeks allowing a total of 313 passing yards per game and have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to the QB position so far. Their corners have proved viable, but they have still allowed the 13th most FP to WR and 2nd to TE. I will be targeting the Panthers heavy this week after they were run over by the Vikings defense last week. Look for a big bounce-back effort from Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen.

Target the Green Bay Packers in the Pass Game
This week’s Matchup – BYE

I didn’t mention it in the recap above so I wanted to touch on it here even though the Packers are on a bye this week. The Giants WR core of OBJ, Shepard and Cruz could have a monster game in week five as the Packers have allowed the 5th most passing yards per game (307) through three weeks. Their pair of corners (Sam Shields & Demarious Randall) are two of the worst rated in the league and can be torched at will.

Target the Miami Dolphins & New Orleans Saints in the Run Game

The two worst run defenses through three weeks have been the Dolphins and Saints. The have both allowed over 145 yards on average per game and both face teams with affordable options at RB this week. The Dolphins will face a very confident Jeremy Hill coming off a big game. The game flow should help him as well and he should most likely receive around 15 carries. The Saints will face the Chargers and Melvin Gordon this week. While Gordon didn’t get the yardage against the Colts he did get the volume with 16 carries and did score another touchdown giving him four through the first three weeks.

Thursday Night Football

This week we get a decent Thursday night game from a fantasy perspective. The Dolphins will face the Bengals in Cincinnati with the Bengals coming in as early -7 favorites. Both teams have a 1-2 record, but the Bengals have the clear edge on both offense and defense coming into this matchup. Game flow should dictate which players are going to have big days. After AJ Green called himself out after some key drops Sunday I look for him to get the ball early and often and can easily see a huge bounce back game with 8+ receptions, 100+ yards and a TD. Once the Bengals get ahead I see them turning to the run game and Jeremy Hill could be in for a huge game, especially in the second half. He is priced fairly on FanDuel at $7,000 but is a near must play on DraftKings at just $4,100. On the other side of the ball, I see a ton of value in a Tannehill/Landry stack as the Dolphins should be playing from behind for most of the game. DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills make decent value WR options for the Dolphins as well as Parker who has seen 19 targets in his two games played. While Stills has received 17 over his three games and is the deep threat in the offense.

Week 4SUN/MON Top Games to Target

In this final section, I am going to cover a few games that could be very optimal for daily fantasy. I will be using the Player Lab tool on the website to look specifically at things like Vegas Totals, Opponent Defense rankings, past performances and most of all future projections.

San Diego Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints

As it sits on Tuesday afternoon the Chargers are -3.5 point home favorites with week four’s highest projected total of 43.5 points. Looking at the Player Lab tool on the website this game is one of just three with a Vegas Total of 48 or greater that has a thin spread of -4 or less. This means the game should stay extremely competitive throughout giving a ton of players fantasy value. I will start on the San Diego side where I will have a ton of Melvin Gordon exposure this week as he will once again get the bulk of the carries and gets his best matchup, possibly of the entire season. The Saints have allowed a league-worst 149.3 rushing yards per game. You can also feel safe with Philip Rivers this week as he is once again projected for over 40 pass attempts. His top targets will be Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams. On the other side of the ball, the Vegas projections have the Saints in another very favorable game flow situation. Their defense has been horrific which is forcing Brees to throw a ton (140 attempts in 3 weeks) and resulted in him leading the league in passing yards (1,062) through three weeks. Even with the high-volume passing, he has only thrown one interception this season while tossing eight touchdowns. The matchup is definitely on his side as the Chargers sit 30th in passing yards allowed per game (322) despite having one of the best corners in the game in Jason Verrett. Without Willie Snead on MNF Brees targeted rookie Michael Thomas 11 times, Brandon Coleman eight times and newly acquired Coby Fleener 11 times. I won’t be worried too much about Verrett shutting one WR as the Saints do a good job of moving their receivers around the formation. Another thing to note with the Saints is that the pricing for this week was released before Monday Night Football meaning a TON of value.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This is a matchup between two teams who had completely opposite results in week three. The Chiefs are coming off a dominating defensive game where they picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times (one Pick 6) and caused three fumbles, recovering two of them with one going for a touchdown. The Steelers, however, were on the losing end of a beat down as the Eagles blasted them 34-2 in a game where Big Ben wasn’t exactly spot on. Both teams will be getting back their star RB this week with Le’Veon Bell returning to the Steelers and Jamal Charles returning to the Chiefs. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin suggested Bell will be in for a big workload and is in close to peak physical condition. Charles, on the other hand, is returning from injury and even if he starts could be limited with Spencer Ware doing a stand-up job. The Chiefs are currently six-point underdogs so Jeremy Maclin should see another double-digit target day. He is currently ranked 10th in the league with 29 targets through three weeks. Look for Big Ben to get back on track this week after a dismal effort last week. He is most likely going to be low owned as well. Antonio Brown will once again be an elite option and #1 target monster in the NFL after an 18 target week against the Eagles. He is one just four players who have received double-digit targets each week and leads the entire league with 40 on the year. Sammie Coates is a GPP only play as he doesn’t get the share of targets you would like but has home run upside as a deep threat.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my Favorite Stacking options for the weekend.