NFL Lineup Optimizer Stack Targets for Week 3 – 9/23/16

Chris Durell

Week two is in the books and by now we should all have taken a deep hard look at was has been crushing it and taking home all the money in tournaments. If you haven’t, here is a breakdown. Stack, stack, stack!!! Not just a QB/WR either. In week one we saw both Milli Makers won with a Brees/Cooks/Snead stack and week two saw all the money taken home with Newton/Benjamin stacks with most having Olsen on those lineups as well. Don’t be afraid to include of your starting QB’s top options when making your lineups.

Let’s dig in and take a look at a few stacks that could be very profitable in week three. As always I like to start my research with the Player Lab found under the NFL tab on the homepage. I will first check off the High Vegas O/U filter (usually 48 or higher depending on the week). Then for QB’s and WR’s I will also check off the Poor Defense vs. Pass filter (usually have it set to a rating of 20th or worse) but early in the season I open it up a bit. This gives me a tremendous start to the projected top stacks for the week. As we all know, though, it doesn’t always work out that way, and this is why it’s so nice to have over 15 different filters to choose from to narrow the field of players down. Game flow is everything in football.

Note – I am not going to be looking at the Monday Night Football game in this stacks article moving forward as it is no longer included on the main slate on either site. I will be adding a stacking option to the early week article which will be geared towards the Monday-Thursday slate of games that is becoming more popular this season.

STACK TARGERTS

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
QB – Matthew Stafford
Elite WR – Marvin Jones Jr.
Value Options – Golden Tate, Eric Ebron

There are two games with a projected total over 48 on Sunday with the Chargers visiting the Colts and the Lions visiting the Packers. I like the Lions as my top stack for a few reasons. Vegas has them as pretty big dogs(+7.5) even though both teams come in with 1-1 records. I do feel the Packers are the better team, and we should see a nice bounce back effort from A-Rod this week. I lean Stafford who comes in cheaper on both sites and sits inside the top 10 in pass attempts through two weeks with an average yards per attempt that is close to two yards higher. Marvin Jones Jr and Golden Tate have flip-flopped salaries since the start of the season with Jones Jr. now the most expensive option. He has been remarkably consistent and is one of only five wide receivers to get double-digit targets in each of the first two weeks. Tate has been disappointing with just 54 yards, but he been heavily targeted (16) and appears to be playing at less than 100%. He has become a value play and could even come in very low-owned with a lot of people turning to Anquan Boldin after his TD last week. He has the toughest matchup out of the three WR’s as the Packers strongest corner is Quinten Rollins out of the slot. If you want a low-owned TE, this week consider Eric Ebron if he is a full go. He has received 12 targets to start the season including a team-leading three in the end zone. With Ameer Abdullah out of the picture and the Lions expected to be down early Stafford could end up attempting well over 40 passes this week.

San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts
QB – Philip Rivers
Elite WR – Travis Benjamin
Value Options – Tyrell Williams, Antonio Gates, Melvin Gordon

Sticking with the same filters the other team stack that stands to me is Philip Rivers and Company. Much like the Lions stack I favor the underdog on the road as they will most likely be down in the second half and forced to throw the ball. Once again, game flow is king when nailing these stacks. I feel the Chargers could be an elite tournament stack due to ownership as the team lost Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen for the season. Philip Rivers is also coming off a game where he only attempted 24 passes due to the run-heavy game flow but still completed 4 TD passes. Expect the yardage total to rise this week. Travis Benjamin has quickly become Rivers favorite target, and he has stepped up in a big way catching 13 balls on 14 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns. His price is still sitting at a very affordable price and could take a big jump after Sunday’s game. From a value perspective, you should also consider Tyrell Williams who has accumulated 132 and a touchdown in the first two weeks. Gates missed practice on Thursday and if he doesn’t play it only increases the value of stacking both Williams and Benjamin. It will also increase their ownership. If he plays, he is a touchdown dependant value TE that could be combined with either of the WR options.

Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
QB – Ryan Tannehill
Elite WR Options – Jarvis Landry
Value Options – DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills

The overall Vegas total is very low, but that is mainly due to the projection for the Browns offense which is now running Cody Kessler at QB with Clipboard Jesus backing him up. We will get to the Dolphins defense in the next segment. For the offense, the Dolphins are projected to score the 3rd most (26.25) points of any team on Sunday which automatically puts them in consideration as a top stack. He is coming off an impressive effort against the Patriots last week completing 32 passes on 45 attempts for 387 yards. While he most likely won’t see 45+ attempts this week, 40 isn’t out of the question as the run game lost Arian Foster and will be relying on the inexperienced Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake. Joe Haden is the Browns top corner and one of the top corners in the league and plays from the left side of the defense where he will most likely face DeVante Parker most of the day. This sets up nicely for Jarvis Landry who is one of five players to receive double-digit targets through the first two weeks with ten likely being the floor this week. If it’s value you are looking for you can always take a shot with Kenny Stills who operates as the deep ball threat but only sees around five targets per game. Very boom or bust low-owned option.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Miami Dolphins Defense vs. Cleveland Browns
RB Option – Kenyan Drake

I am adding this to the weekly stacks article as Running Backs and Defenses are critical and have feelings too. But seriously, did you see the Vikings Defense in Week One? If a team can score a defensive touchdown and force multiple turnovers, it can make all the difference in just cashing and cashing in big. More times than not I will stack a Defense and Running Back in cash games based on game flow. If a defense is shutting down the opposition that means they are most likely leading in the second half which usually leads to increased carries for the running back. This slow pace is most times not conducive for a lot of points in tournaments but can get a running back a ton of garbage time points.

If you have been living under a rock and not sure which defense to use this week, here ya go! The Dolphins should easily be the chalk and are setup for a giant day against the Browns who are starting rookie Cody Kessler. The choices are limited as RGIII is out for the season and Josh McCown is out for at least a couple of games. It was just a few days ago the Browns brass said of Kessler “He is just not ready to play”. It could be a long day for Kessler and backup Clipboard Jesus. Expect multiple sacks and turnovers giving the Dolphins the highest floor and potential ceiling of any team on Sunday.

Looking at the running back situation for the Dolphins without Foster in the lineup it appears to be a timeshare to start with Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake both getting a chance to prove themselves not just for this game but for the future job. Ajayi was left home in week one due to attitude problems and when he came into the game last week when Foster went down he under performed with just 14 yards on five carries and also lost a fumble. Drake has almost 100% tread on his tires as he never rushed over 100 times in either of his four years in Alabama as he sat behind stars such as Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, TJ Yeldon, Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry. He rushed twice last week for 12 yards and also received two targets in the passing game. I prefer Drake who looks more like the goal line option and could get the TD share. He could also be the lower owned of the two making him viable in GPP’s this week.