NFL Lineup Optimizer Stack Targets for Week 5 – 10/07/16
Chris Durell & James Leer
Week 5 is alive and only 3 unbeaten teams remain. Will the surprisingly undefeated Vikings and Eagles prove that they are, indeed, for real? Will the Falcons decimate the Broncos like they stuck it to the Panthers last week? Will Tom Brady come back after his suspension, like Le’veon Bell, and show the fantasy world who’s boss? Lots of interesting situations to look forward to, I can’t wait for Sunday kickoff!
If you have been using the Player Lab Tool note that all the data took a season switch over over the past couple of days with 2016 data now displayed. There is a tremendous amount of data available, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.
Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:
High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.
Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.
Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.
Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!
Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers
QB – Derek Carr
Elite Options – Michael Crabtree
Value Options – Amari Cooper, DeAndre Washington
The Raiders come into this game as 3.5 point home favorites in the week’s highest projected scoring game with an Over/Under currently sitting at 50. San Diego’s defense has been decent this year ranking 18th in the Def vs. Pass rankings on the Player Lab tool and could trend downwards for the rest of the season. It was announced earlier in the week that star corner Jason Verrett has a partially torn ACL that will end his season. Quarterback Derek Carr has averaged over 38 pass attempts per game and is projected for over 40 in this game. He has impressed this season completing 68% of his passes with nine touchdowns and just one interception. Carr has equally targeted his big WR’s as Michael Crabtree has seen 37 targets while Amari Cooper has seen 35. Crabtree has been more productive from a fantasy perspective with four touchdowns compared to Coopers zero, but both have recorded over 300 yards receiving on the season. If you are looking for a punt option at RB this week take a long hard look at DeAndre Washington who should get the start on Sunday with Latavius Murray doubtful to play with a toe injury. Washington was the most impressive of the three-headed attack last week with five carries for 30 yards, and he also caught all three of his targets in the passing game.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
QB – Eli Manning
Elite Option – Odell Beckham Jr.
Value Options – Victor Cruz, Sterling Shepard
If you are looking for volume this week one of the top games to stack is going to be the Packer/Giants matchup. I lean the road team for a few reasons. First of all, with the Packers coming off a bye week I fully expect a dominant effort, especially considering the Giants are on a short week coming off a loss to the Vikings on Monday Night Football. Game script could have the Packers lean to Eddie Lacy to carry the load while the Giants could be forced to throw a ton. Looking at the Player Lab Tool Eli is projected for the third-most pass attempts (41.6) of any quarterback and has the wide receivers to put up some big time yards and fantasy points. He has an elite option in Odell Beckham Jr. who has been a target monster so far this year with 39 targets (average 10 per week) and is due to break out of his touchdown slump. The pressure is on as he showed a little bit too much emotion on MNF where he recorded a career low 23 yards. Recency bias will have some people avoiding him but with a salary that has dropped $800 since the start of the season I will be all over OBJ this week. If you want to go the value route and still expose yourself (not in people please) to the Giants game script upside consider Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz. Shepard has seen 7+ targets in each of the last three weeks. Cruz’s targets have been a little more scattered as the 3rd option in the passing game but has seen 8+ in two of the four weeks.
Contrarian Stack of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
QB – Carson Wentz
Elite Option – Jordan Matthews
Value Options – Zach Ertz
The Eagles/Lions game falls outside the “High Vegas O/U” filter threshold and that is why it falls in the contrarian section this week. Looking at the “High-Opp Allowed Pace” filter it also comes in as one of the worst matchups. But here we are. The Eagles have been one of the surprises of the first quarter of the season going 3-0 and scoring 29+ points in each game. Some say the early bye week might disrupt the momentum they have had, but I am not buying it. I feel it gives them even more time to prepare for an opponent who is struggling on both offense and defense.
Despite being limited to an average of 34 pass attempts per game in the first three weeks, Carson Wentz has been impressive with a 7.54 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. [Which at 99 passing attempts without an interception currently stands as an NFL record for a rookie quarterback – editor] The Eagles are a team that have multiple target stacking options. Start with the Jordan Matthews who leads the team with 26 targets (8.7 per week). He had a touchdown last game but was otherwise quiet as the Eagles completely shut down the Steelers which made it a very balanced attack (31 pass attempts and 30 rush attempts). Expect the Eagles to have to throw it few more times this week (Wentz projected for 38 att). Wentz will also get his second favorite target back as Zach Ertz returns from injury. He was impressive in week one before going down catching six of his seven targets for 58 yards.
Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week
Pittsburgh Steelers & Le’Veon Bell vs. New York Jets
After an embarrassing loss to the Eagles in week three the Steelers rebounded in a big way last week with a 43-14 win over the Chiefs. [Which Chris, yet again, did an excellent job predicting the rebound in this Week 4 article here: http://bit.ly/2dSTI0j – editor]. They allowed them 357 total yards but limited them to 14 points and created two turnovers with four sacks. This week they get another great matchup as they sit as early seven-point home favorites vs. the Jets. Fitzmagic has been a turnover machine lately throwing nine interceptions in the last two weeks as the offense has looked awful scoring just 20 points. Matt Forte was a full participant in practice on Thursday but has been banged up with rib and knee injuries the last few weeks and Eric Decker is a long shot to play. Look for the Steelers defense to record multiple sacks with a few turnovers on Sunday.
The game script from a dominant defensive performance correlates closely with RB performance as they tend to get a ton of carries, especially in the second half while their team is just wearing the clock down. The Steelers got a huge boost last week when they got back elite RB Le’Veon Bell. Things didn’t look good early as Big Ben spread the ball around through the air, but Bell ended up with 18 carries for 144 yards and also caught five of his six targets. The Jets rank well in Def vs. Pass (6th), but the volume trumps the matchup rating this week.