NFL Playoffs Stack Targets – Week 2 – 01/13/17

Chris Durell

Welcome back to another four-game playoff slate as we enter the Divisional Round. While we had no games with a Vegas Total over 47 last week, we have two that exceed 50 as the Seahawks/Falcons and Packers/Cowboys are both sitting around 52 on Thursday morning. It comes as no surprise when you look at the quality of the teams. Of the eight teams remaining in the playoffs, six finished the regular season ranking inside the Top 10 in DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, there are only three teams who rank inside the Top 10 in overall defensive DVOA. This presents a great opportunity when stacking in tournaments. Let’s dig in and take a look at a few of my favorite options using the Player Lab Tool.

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Davante Adams, Randall Cobb
Secondary Options – Jared Cook
Correlation Play – Ezekiel Elliot

I start off the week going back to my top filters of “High Team Passing Yards/TD %” set at 70% or greater which this week only produces two options. Of those two options, I lean Aaron Rodgers and here is why; It comes down to Rodgers projected for close to four more pass attempts. Add to the fact his team relies much more on his passing with nowhere near the running game and I believe you have the highest scoring QB of the week. While Big Ben can certainly go off as he did back in Week 4 vs. the Chiefs (300 yards/5 TD’s), I don’t think they need anywhere near that production nor is it my belief that the Chiefs will allow it to happen twice. As for Rodgers, his red-hot stretch continued last week with 362 yards and four touchdowns. Get this, he has now thrown 300 or more yards and four touchdowns in three straight games and going all the way back to Week 11 he has 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The only risk is that he will be without his #1 receiver Jordy Nelson but it didn’t seem to matter after he exited last week. Devante Adams (8 rec/125 yards/1 TD) and Randall Cobb (5 rec/118 yards/3 TD) took over and Cobb even got the famous Rodgers Hail Mary pass for a touchdown before halftime. Jared Cook will also play a huge role in the passing game if Jordy is out and comes at a bargain price compared to the other options at the position on a small slate. What I like most about Rodgers is that he is nearly game script proof as they will rely on him heavily if the Packers are down. If the Packers get you to an early lead it will likely be due to his arm and the Packers aren’t a team to let up if they do get ahead.

The correlation play is something I have been using more and more towards the end of the season as I get better at predicting game flow. The Cowboys are 4.5 point favorites at home and expected to win this game. If they are to win it will be on the backs of their offensive line and rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott who had a monster season. The Cowboys have a bit of a mismatch in the run game this week as the Packers interior linebackers are below average. If Zeke goes off and the Cowboys are ahead, it will push a ton of extra volume towards Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Options – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Paul Richardson, Jimmy Graham
Correlation Play – Julio Jones

For the next stack, I will be riding with the only team facing a defense ranked worse than 20th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab. The Seahawks stack let us down last week, in large part to Thomas Rawls running all over the Lions defense in a 26-6 thumping. If you are playing tournaments on a small slate, you are going to need to find small edges throughout your lineup to separate yourself and fading the players that others will chase is a great start. Look For Rawls ownership to be through the roof this week making Wilson and the passing game a great pivot with a projected lower ownership than last week. For the Seahawks to stay in this game with the very balanced #2 offense in the league, they are going to need Wilson to produce one of his best games of the season. He only exceeded 20 fantasy points six times during the regular season but showed us his huge upside when he put up 37 DK/33 FD points against the Cardinals in Week 16. His #1 option this week should once again be Doug Baldwin who, as predicted, lead the team with 12 targets last week catching 11 for 104 yards and a touchdown. He has now scored in three of his last four weeks. Paul Richardson makes a terrific value option on both sites under $5K and showed off his hands last week making two highlight reel catches, one for a touchdown. If you are looking to be a bit contrarian this week pair Wilson with Jimmy Graham who is the next most expensive option after Travis Kelce who might be Top 3 in overall ownership. The fact that Jimmy has only recorded one touchdown in the last five weeks and hasn’t recorded a 100-yard game since week six will also keep his ownership down this week.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

New England Patriots & LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis

From a defensive standpoint, there is only one clear option and that is the New England Patriots. First of all, it comes down to them being a 15 point favorites at home to Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans. The Texans come in with the 28th ranked offense when looking at DVOA while the Patriots rank 11th in the defensive category. While the Pats sit in the middle of the league in takeaways and the bottom of the league in sacks, they have produced double-digit fantasy points in three of their last five games and get a plus matchup vs. Osweiler. He hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight games and hasn’t thrown for 300 yards once this season. He will have a tough time in Gillette Stadium and the Patriots should at least get one, possibly two turnovers with a couple sacks. They aren’t a must play, but if I was playing ten lineups the Pats defense would be in at least seven of them.

Whenever the Patriots are big favorites you have to take their running backs into strong consideration due to volume. The trick with the Pats is nailing down which guy will get the bulk of the carries. It was much easier early in the season when Dion Lewis was out as LeGarrette Blount had a tremendous year with 1,161 yards and a whopping 18 touchdowns. He has also been a beast in the playoffs with a three and a four touchdown game. The problem is that he has not practiced all week, so we will see what happens on Friday when the news comes out. If he is out the picture is much more clear as Lewis would become the bell cow and James White would most likely take on a little extra duty in the passing game which might be limited if the Pats get out to an early lead. For me, on a small slate, I will be using Lewis no matter what as he comes with a really nice discount allowing you to get up to some elite players. If Blount is cleared medically and starts the game I will also have some exposure to the playoff beast.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab