NFL Stack Targets for Week 12 – 11/26/16

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson
Value Option – Davante Adams

Kicking things off in Week 12 we are going to go a bit contrarian with the Packers on Monday Night Football. I gravitate to this game for a few reasons, all of which are outlined in my selected filters on the Player Lab Tool this week. First of all, it has the third highest projected Vegas total (48) of the week with the struggling Packers coming in as four-point dogs. For game flow purposes this immediately has mean leaning Aaron Rodgers and Packers passing game. Despite the overall team struggles, Rodgers has been fantasy gold averaging 318 passing yards and three touchdowns per game over the past five weeks. Looking back at the Player Lab Tool I also set the “High Team Passing Yards%” and “High Team Passing TD%” filter to 70%+ this week to get a look teams that rely heavily on the pass. With no rushing game in Green Bay since the loss of Eddie Lacy the Packers have been one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. They rely on passing for 89% of their overall touchdowns and 72% of their total yardage. The elite option to pair up with Rodgers is going to be Jordy Nelson who has been a touchdown monster this season with nine coming into this game including one in four straight games. Breaking down the WR/CB matchups it appears Davante Adams will draw the Eagles weakest corner(via PFF) Nolan Carroll opening up some value in the Packers stack.

The reason this stack is going to be contrarian is the fact that the Eagles have the #1 defense against the pass when looking at the Player Lab Tool. This combined with the fact that the game is not on the main slate means some very low-ownership and a great opportunity to cash in. I am not totally ignoring the Eagles defense but find the volume and projected ownership too hard to pass up this week.

New England Patriots
QB – Tom Brady
Elite Option – Julian Edelman
Value Option – James White

Next up on the Player Lab Tool I tried to narrow the field down by looking for quarterbacks going up against weaker defenses against the pass who are projected for 40+ attempts and have been extremely efficient so far in 2016. This spit out two options this week. I will be avoiding the Dolphins, for the most part, as I think Jay Ajayi is in for another big week taking away value from Ryan Tannehill and the passing game. I will be loading up on Tom Brady who is the other QB showing up under the above filters. Since returning from his “Deflategate Suspension” to open the season Brady has been on a mission throwing for 300 or more yards or multiple touchdowns in all six games and is third in the league with an extremely impressive 70.4% completion percentage. Even without Gronk last week and a limited output from Martellus Bennett, Brady still threw four touchdowns in a beat down of the 49ers. He is unlikely to have Gronk again this week so look for Julian Edelman to continue to see a high % of the target share. He is coming off a season-high 17 targets, catching eight of them for 77 yards and a touchdown. A similar line could be in the cards this week. What sways me towards the Pats the most this week is the fact that the Jets are elite (2nd) against the run but severely struggle against the pass (28th). Lock and load!

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Option – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Jimmy Graham

If you are looking to go a little off the board this week take a look at the Seahawks, who will be taking the big trip to Florida to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reason this falls under the contrarian section this week is because it falls outside of most or all of the filters this week. The projected total is one of the lower ones of the week, the Bucs sit right in the middle of the league (16th) in Defense vs. the Pass, and Wilson is only projected for around 35 passing attempts. So what is there to like about the Hawks? Wilson is starting to heat up after injuries hampered his play early in the season. After only attempting no more than three rushes in four straight weeks he more than doubles those averages in Week 11 with eight attempts. He has been consistent with 20+ fantasy points in three straight games and has shown upside that we like for tournaments. With C.J. Prosise out, Thomas Rawls will step back in as the lead dog in the backfield but he could be somewhat limited in his second game back due to his nine-week absence due to injury. The elite stack with Wilson this week is going to be Doug Baldwin who plays out of the slot and has huge home run and multi-touchdown potential. He also has one of the best matchups in the entire league this week as he is projected to face Vernon Hargreaves, one of the worst rated corners in the league (via PFF). If you want to go even more contrarian pay up at TE and add Jimmy Graham to your stack. He has been quiet with under 50 yards receiving in the last two games but has scored a touchdown three touchdowns over his last three weeks and has broken the 100-yard barrier three times this season.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

San Diego Chargers & Melvin Gordon

This week for the RB/Def combo I looked closer at the Player Lab Tool and entered a few filters to break things down. I started by looking for running backs with a “High Load %” above 70%, averaging 80+ rushing yards per week and projected to get the ball 20+ times in Week 12. Those filters narrowed things down to two options. We all know about David Johnson and his elite abilities rushing and as a receiver but I lean Melvin Gordon for a few reasons. The game flow fits Gordon a bit better as the Chargers are favorites and Gordon is the only running back in the league with a Load % greater than 80%. That is due to the team losing Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen early in the season but it doesn’t matter why he gets the bulk of the production, just that he does!

Another reason I lean Gordon this week is the defensive aspect to the stack. I will be avoiding the Cardinals to will be traveling to the dome in Atlanta to face one of the top offenses in the league. I would rather take my chances with the Charges defense. They usually come in low- owned and are a very affordable option. They are more than just a safe floor as they have recorded double-digit fantasy points in three of their last five games.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab