NFL Stack Targets for Week 13 – 12/02/16

It’s absolutely crazy that 12 weeks are already in the books. With Week 13 on the horizon there are just five weeks left in the regular season. Add in two good weeks of playoff DFS and we are getting down to the end and it makes me sad.

I have been having an up and down season and sit with a small profit but feel I have learned more in these 12 weeks than in my previous 5+ years of fantasy football combined. A lot of it has to do with the amount of research I have been able to do as I prep to write articles on a weekly basis. One of the biggest tools that has contributed to my growth and success as both a writer and player has been the Player Lab. Getting all the relevant stats and projections all in one spot combined with the fully customizable Player Lab and Lineup Optimizer has significantly reduced my research time and increased my lineup construction time. Below I am going to list a few of my favorite filters I have been using to construct tournament lineup stacks.

This one is pretty straight forward. I like to narrow the field down by starting with a filter around 48+ total points. Most weeks this gives us a large number of options but there are weeks where you will have to expand this a bit. You can customize these number’s by hitting the gear on the right-hand side of the filter. There are instances I won’t use this filter like when I am writing up the contrarian stack.

The default setting is 20th or worse for the defense which will eliminate right around 63% of the field. Most weeks this will work just fine, but if the search results still provide multiple options I will then bump the filter up to 25th or worse.

Finally, I love adding the High Team Passing and TD % filters and starting at 70% or greater. This narrows quarterbacks and passing games down to teams who rely on passing a high % of the time. When trying to go contrarian these are the two primary filters I use and target a game with a low total or a projected low ownership, which typically go hand in hand. I then try to target a quarterback who is projected for 35+ passes.

There are definitely a ton more filters to customize when constructing your own models but these are the key ones that I use on a weekly basis. I lean to these four mainly due to the fact that all of them carry over through all positions making it easy to narrow down a stacking team rather than individual players. We will get into that in next week’s article.

Let’s now dig into Week 13 using these filters on the Player Lab and find some stacks that can help get to GPP glory.

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Options – Willie Snead
Secondary Options – Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas
Contrarian Option – Tim Hightower

The Saints have been discussed a lot throughout the week which has most people thinking chalk, chalk, chalk. While I do think Drew Brees will be one of the highest owned quarterbacks this week, I do believe that there are ways to differentiate yourself. For Brees, everything lines up for a monster game in the slates highest projected total with the Saints sitting around six-point favorites at home. Speaking of the Superdome let’s take a look at Brees home game logs this season on DraftKings:
Week 12 vs. Rams – 36.5 DK Pts
Week 10 vs. Broncos – 26.02 DK Pts
Week 8 vs. Seahawks – 20.7 DK Pts
Week 6 vs. Panthers – 36.6 DK Pts
Week 3 vs. Falcons – 29.94 DK Pts
Week 1 vs. Raiders – 35.42 DK Pts

As you can see, he has provided a floor of 20 points against one of the best defenses in the league. I will take that all day and then some tomorrow. Good news is he is projected to hit closer to his ceiling this week as the Lions rank 31st in Defense vs. the Pass. On DraftKings he has a realistic chance to get close to 5x value this week. I have Willie Snead listed as the elite stacking option for a few reasons. First of all, he is projected to face Quandre Diggs who is one of the worst slot corners in the league. There is also a ton of buzz around a bounce back spot for Brandin Cooks this week, but I am not totally buying into it. Even though the Lions rank 31st vs. the Pass, Cooks will most likely face Darius Slay who has been their best corner and one of the top ranked corners when looking at PFF’s WR/CB chart. The target share has been really close between the three receivers this season as all of them are averaging around seven targets per week. This makes it tough to nail down which one is going to blow up each week. I feel Snead has the best shot and could very well be the lowest owned of the three. If you want to go completely contrarian add RB Tim Hightower to your lineup. If the Lions can keep the game close or take the lead he could very well see 5+ targets once again like he did two weeks ago against the Panthers. Mark Ingram is still not practicing and was out-touched by Hightower last week making me like the pick even more.

Indianapolis Colts
QB – Andrew Luck
Elite Option – TY Hilton
Value Option – Donte Moncrief

Sticking with the same filters as above we will take a closer look at the Monday night game and the Indianapolis Colts offense. Andrew Luck sat out last week’s Thanksgiving day game vs. the Steelers as he was still in the league’s concussion protocol. He has now had plenty of time to rest and although he was just a limited participant at practice this week, he is fully expected to practice in full on Friday. Be sure to check the news throughout the weekend. There is certainly risk involved in stacking Luck and the Colts which will most likely leave him under-owned in a Sunday-Monday slate.

Breaking down the matchup using the
Player Lab there is definitely a lot to love about the Colts this week. First of all, they have no real threat in the running game as Frank Gore is averaging just 60 yards per game on the ground. This adequately explains why the Colts rely on Passing for over 70% of their total yards and touchdown production. Even if they did have a better running game the Jets rank
2nd overall in Defense vs. the Rush. This should force Luck to have to throw a ton which shows with his projection of 44 pass attempts. While the Jets dominate the run defense, they bleed yards through the air ranking 30th in Defense vs. the Pass. The Jets are projected to shadow both TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief for the most part but that doesn’t worry me much. Both Buster Skrine and Darrelle Revis have been disappointing this season ranking in the bottom 25 out of over 100 corners according to Pro Football Focus. Hilton was injured in the Thanksgiving Day game and has yet to practice this week. If he gets a full practice in on Friday I will feel comfortable pairing him with Luck to create some huge upside. If Hilton was to sit out that will present extra targets for Donte Moncrief. He hasn’t been putting up the yardage totals we would like but since returning from injury in Week 8 he has scored a touchdown in four straight games. I fully expect this streak to continue on Monday Night Football.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Option – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Jimmy Graham

It is crazy how one week in fantasy football can change the perception of a certain player or team. The Seahawks were one of my top stacks last week and completely let me and anyone who rostered them down. This week they fall into my Contrarian section as recency bias and a perceived tough matchup will keep a lot of the public off the Seahawks this week. I say perceived tough matchup as some people still believe the Panthers have a top defense. This just isn’t the case anymore, especially without Josh Norman who left in the offseason and Luke Kuechly who has been out for two weeks with a concussion. The rushing defense hasn’t really been affected as they rank 6th on the Player Lab Tool. It has been the passing defense taking the biggest hit as they rank 21st in that area allowing the fourth most passing yards per game(275.2). Look for Wilson to get back on track and makes an elite GPP play with his main target Doug Baldwin who did catch seven of his eight targets last week and led the team by a mile receiving 7.1 targets per week. Carolina has also been generous to the tight end this season ranking 24th according to the Player Lab so if you are keen on spending up at the position this week Jimmy Graham makes an excellent GPP play with 100 yard and multi-touchdown upside.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Doug Martin

Going with a cheap defense this week that comes with a ton of upside. The Bucs defense is near minimum price on both sites and I am not sure why. Over the last three weeks, they have recorded five interceptions, four fumble recoveries, 10 sacks and have not allowed an opponent (SEA, KC, CHI) to throw for more than 261 yards. It will be a bit tougher on the road in San Diego this week but the Chargers currently lead the league with 23 giveaways, 12 interceptions, and 11 fumbles lost. Look for constant pressure from the Bucs front four which should once again produce multiple sacks and possibly multiple turnovers.

After an eight-week absence due to injury Doug Martin will make his fourth straight start and looks to be getting stronger each week. He has received 20+ carries in back to back weeks and recorded a season-high 87 yards last week vs. a tough Seahawks defense. He gets a much easier test this week as the Chargers who rank 17th in Defense vs. Rush.

I don’t fully trust Martin in cash games but think he will come in under-owned in tournaments with many people paying up for the excellent matchups of the elite runners.

Thanks again for reading. If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock on Sunday you can reach out to us o on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab