NFL Stack Targets for Week 14 – 12/09/16

Chris Durell

Week 13 is in the books and besides my top overall pick of the Saints last week it went quite well. Andrew Luck and Colts rolled over on the Jets. The Seahawks were limited in the passing game as RB Thomas Rawls literally ran the table for 106 yards and two touchdowns. *Russell Wilson still managed 277 yards and a touchdown through the air with an added 29 yards on the ground. Jimmy Graham caught Wilson’s only touchdown and Doug Baldwin was effective catching all seven of his targets for 65 yards. The Defense/RB combo also worked out with the Bucs D picking up two sacks, two interceptions and one defensive touchdown. Doug Martin had trouble finding space with only 45 yards but did score a touchdown and catch a 23-yard pass before being limited with back pain. Despite the absolute dud by Drew Brees and the Saints, it was a profitable week overall even if a small one. Moving on.

This week presents some interesting situations for a number of reasons. One of the biggest is going to be Mother Nature as there is some projected wind, snow and cold weather in the forecast in Cleveland and Buffalo with a good chance of rain in Miami. Another key thing to pay attention to when making your lineup decisions this week will be the divisional matchups. There are six this week with all of them but the Saints/Bucs playing the second game in the series. One thing a lot of smart minds have tracked over the past few years of fantasy football has been the effect on these divisional games and fantasy production. While you can’t completely fade these situations they usually favor the defenses which lead to some low scoring games. Add to it that there are a ton of playoff positions up for grabs with some nice parody across the league, and we could be in for some grind it out, low scoring games. This will just put more emphasis on the use of the Player Lab for our research heading into the weekend. Let’s dig in.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB – Jameis Winston
Elite Options – Mike Evans
Secondary Options – Cameron Brate

I was extremely close to going back to the well with Brees and the Saints this week but lean Jameis Winston and the Bucs for a few reasons. The most glaring thing was the Defense vs. Position difference as the Bucs rank 6th vs. the Pass while the Saints have been horrible ranking 26th, allowing 276.8 yards per game through the air. This is one of those divisional games I talked about, but it is the only one of the six that is the first game of the series so I am not worried one bit. While Winston has only thrown six touchdowns over the last four games, he has thrown for 300+ yards twice while facing four straight Top 15 defenses against the pass. I fully expect his first 25+ fantasy point performance since back in Week 3. If Winston is going to have a big game you are most definitely going to want to pair him with his elite WR Mike Evans. When it comes to volume and upside there is no one better. Evans has provided a huge floor with his elite 11.3 targets/6.3 receptions per game this season. If you are looking for value, add TE Cameron Brate to your stack. He has been inconsistent with his production this year but has shown big upside with six touchdowns and has seen 5+ targets seven times this season. The volume should most definitely be there once again in the week’s highest projected total.

San Diego Chargers
QB – Philip Rivers
Elite Option – Tyrell Williams
Value Option – Dontrelle Inman

With the breakout of RB Melvin Gordon this season I haven’t played much of Philip Rivers and the Chargers pass game. That will change this week as Gordon faces a tough matchup as the Panthers have been rock solid ranking 6th in Defense vs. the Run this season. Gordon has been the bell cow and centerpiece of the Chargers offense this season so expect the Panthers to stack the box and force Rivers to throw. That will suit Rivers just fine as he has tallied multiple touchdown passes in five straight weeks despite not having his top WR Keenan Allen. He is one of the many quarterbacks projected for 40+ pass attempts this week, a feat he has reached four times this season. Tyrell Williams has lead the receiving core averaging 7.4 targets per week and has scored a touchdown in four straight games. Early in the year, it was Travis Benjamin providing the value in the passing game but has seen his target share diminish substantially in the second half of the season. He is a nonfactor. For value take a close look at the former CFL star Dontrelle Inman who has seen five or more targets in six straight games while scoring a touchdown in back to back weeks. Both TE’s Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are deep sleeper options as both have been nonfactors for fantasy splitting snaps almost down the middle the last couple weeks.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Washington Redskins
QB – Kirk Cousins
Elite Option – Desean Jackson
Secondary Options – Jamison Crowder

This recommendation comes with the contrarian tag for a few reasons. First of all, it’s the narrative I discussed earlier of the second division game between rivals in a season and the perceived tough matchup vs. the Eagles who rank
4th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab. Those numbers are a bit skewed towards their first half of the season as they have been trending in the wrong direction lately allowing 300 + passing yards in back to back games. Kirk Cousins was effective but not great in the first meeting completing 18 of 34 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. It was the running game doing the majority of the damage in the first game as Robert Kelley, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson combined for 231 yards on the ground. I don’t expect the run game to be a factor this week as the Eagles have limited the opponents to under 80 yards rushing in four of their last five games. After a monster Week 12, Jordan Reed sat out Week 13 with a shoulder injury and while he says he is playing this week he was in obvious pain at practice on Thursday. The Redskins are used to playing without the injury prone Reed as they have been without him several times. If he is out, look for the target share to go to Jamison Crowder. He has received 18 targets over the last two weeks, catching 11 for 130 yards and a touchdown. Desean Jackson is not reliable on a weekly basis but comes with huge upside and can burn the defense at any time.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Arizona Cardinals & David Johnson

Everything about this matchup from both sides of the ball screams monster points. I mean, David Johnson is pretty obvious as the NFL’s all-purpose yardage leader (1,709). He is the most matchup proof player in the league with his running and receiving skill set, locking him in as a WR1 and RB1 each week. He is approaching an extremely elite and exclusive group of players (Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk) who are the only two to ever record a 1,000/1,000 season. Johnson is now just 296 receiving yards away and could be in for a big workload in Miami where there is expected to be 40-60% chance of rain throughout the game.

The weather is also going benefit the Cardinals defense who already rank 8th overall in takeaways (20) facing the Dolphins who rank in the middle of the pack in giveaways (16). They haven’t recorded that big play lately, but the Cards D has multiple sacks in five straight, interceptions in two straight and a fumble recovery in four of their last five games. Double digit points are almost a lock this week.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab