NFL Stack Targets for Week 15 – 12/16/16

Chris Durell

Week 15 is particularly interesting in that we have so many slate choices with a Saturday night game thrown into the mix. On DraftKings, the Saturday night game is included in a “Primetime” slate that includes both the Sunday and Monday night games. On FanDuel, the Saturday night game has been included with the Sunday early games to form a separate slate. Don’t be surprised if you don’t see anyone from the Jets/Dolphins game but that doesn’t mean I won’t play the Saturday slates. If it’s anything like the Thursday slates, the players in that early game always see a bump in ownership which is something that can be taken advantage of from a DFS perspective.

Like we do every week, we will look at some key filters on the Player Lab Tool to narrow the field down and find some top stacking options. Let’s get to it.

To start things off, I went back to the what was working targeting “High Team Passing TD & Yards %” and “Poor Defense vs. the Pass”. With just those three filters we have the field narrowed down to just two options. It is pretty clear to me who the top option is and I will explain why below.

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson
Secondary Options – Devante Adams

Both of the options that pop up in the Player Lab are dealing with injuries late in the year but I am much more concerned about Matthew Stafford’s middle finger on his throwing hand. We have seen Aaron Rodgers perform week in and week out with his ailing hamstring while Stafford looked limited. Looking at the projections Rodgers is also projected more raw points on both sites. Not enough to sell you on A-Rod? Consider this. Rodgers has tallied 20 or more fantasy points (both Sites) in seven of his last eight games while Stafford has only reached that total once in the last weeks and four times all season.

Looking at the receivers for the Packers, it’s clear who is Rodgers favorite target. Jordy Nelson is averaging just under 10 targets per game and is on fire, scoring a touchdown in six of his last seven games. Davante Adams has become the clear #2 option playing 81% of the overall snaps this season, while Randall Cobb has seen just 70% (via Football Outsiders). Adams has also been hot with three 100+ yard games in his last five and scored three touchdowns in that time.

Carolina Panthers
QB – Cam Newton
Elite Option – Greg Olsen
Value Option – Tedd Ginn Jr.

For my second stack this week, I will be looking to target one of the higher Vegas Totals of the week combined with a weak Defense vs. the Pass. These two filters produced five results this week with risk spread throughout. I lean Cam Newton and the Panthers passing game for a few reasons. First of all, they are going to be highly owned being the Monday night game, but as I have mentioned before there is a ton of value in playing those Thursday or Saturday slates and loading up on Monday night game. From a PTS/$ perspective, you won’t get them any higher as all of their salaries have hit or close to hit their season lows in Week 15. Greg Olsen will be the elite option who commands the most target share and is coming off his best game since back in Week 6. Kelvin Benjamin was limited in practice on Thursday and has been invisible in the offense anyway, so lean on Tedd Ginn Jr. if you are looking for an added value play in your team stack. His targets are anything but consistent, but he has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. With the Panthers sitting as close to a touchdown underdog there should be a ton of volume for the passing game.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Option – Brandin Cooks
Secondary Options – Willie Snead

The Saints offense has burned us in back to back weeks as Drew Brees has thrown for a total of ZERO touchdowns. Don’t let the small sample size cloud your judgement, missing out on this excellent GPP opportunity. Brees still provides upside like no other at the position as he is just one of two quarterbacks, (the other being Tom Brady), to record four 30+ fantasy point performances this season. Michael Thomas has been limited at practice this week but is set to make his return on Sunday, unfortunately in a tough matchup against Patrick Peterson. On the other side of the field we could see Brandin Cooks matchup against Marcus Cooper who has been one of the worst rated cornerbacks in the league this season. Cooks has been mostly a boom or bust option this season but is coming off his first double-digit target game. He has also received eight or more targets and five or more receptions in three of his last four games (erase the Rams game from your memory). The price and ownership are not going to come any lower than this week so jump on board while the value is sky high!

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers & Le’Veon Bell

It came down to two running backs for this spot and it’s pretty clear who is the top option. Bell is not only getting a great matchup in which he is projected for 20+ carries in a game where the Steelers should be leading once again and is coming off a week where he touched the ball a whopping 42 times. He also leads all running backs averaging 8.2 targets per week in the passing game and has four or more receptions in every game. He now gets a Bengals defense who has allowed 90+ yards rushing to their opponent in six of their last seven games.

On the defensive side of things, you get a big discount with the Steelers as they are in the bottom 10 teams in points allowed per game. Points allowed is an overrated fantasy stat for defense as the real points come with sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns. The Steelers provide just that as they have tallied six interceptions, 18 sacks and one defensive touchdown over their past four games played. Upside? I think so.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab