NFL Stack Targets for Week 17 – 12/30/16

Chris Durell

The final week of the regular season is upon us and we all know what that means…Chaos! There is really no middle ground. You either embrace the chaos or just simply take the week off and wait for the Wild Card round. Safety kind of gets blown out the window in Week 17 with varying levels of motivation for teams. Some teams are playing for the playoffs, some teams are tanking, some players are close to milestones, and some players will be playing for their future jobs. Before we get into the stacks for this week let’s highlight a few key situations to pay close attention to when constructing your lineups:

• The Cowboys, Giants, Steelers and Texans will have absolutely nothing to play for on Sunday as they are locked into their playoff positions.The Steelers will most likely be sitting Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and will be limiting DeAngelo Williams in his return from injury. The Cowboys have said they don’t want to mess with their rhythm going into the playoffs so I could see playing them as a contrarian option in tournaments. As for the Giants, coach Ben McAdoo has stated they will go all out and try to win the game. The only really play here is obviously Odell Beckham Jr. and I would not hesitate with his enormous upside. Then there is the Texans that should be avoided and I won’t even get into how bad they will get crushed in the Wild Card round.

• The Patriots will clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win or Raiders loss and the Raiders would clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win and Patriots loss. Expect both teams to ball out for that crucial home field advantage. I trust the Patriots more of the two as the Raiders will be without their star quarterback Derek Carr.

• The Chiefs are also in play in the AFC this week as they can win the AFC West title with a win and Raiders loss. Travis Kelce is an elite play at tight end this week with electric wide receiver Tyreke Hill in play in tournaments as well.

• Over in the NFC it is a bit more complicated. The Falcons clinch a first-round bye with a win, which is pretty straight forward. But, if they lose the Seahawks could grab that first round bye if they win Sunday.

• The Packers and Lions face off for the NFC North title on Sunday night. If the Lions win and both the Falcons and Seahawks lose, they would get the first round bye. Even more interesting is if the Redskins lose earlier in the day both the Packers and Lions will make it in the playoffs.

I won’t even get into the Buccaneers chances of making the playoffs. Let’s just say it’s about a quarter of a percentile chance.

That is quite confusing unless you read it several times but gives us a general look into most teams motivations going into their Sunday matchups. With that in mind let’s dig in to the Player Lab and find the top stacking options for Week 17.

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Options – Brandin Cooks
Secondary Options – Michael Thomas

If you’re looking for upside there is no better place to start than the highest total of the week. Not only is the Saints/Falcons game the highest total but it comes in seven points higher than the next closest game. The “High Vegas O/U” filter alone broke the options down to four quarterbacks this week (Rodgers/Stafford the other two in GB/DET game). By adding the “High Passing Yards” we narrowed it down to just two, both of which fall in this very high projected scoring game. Coincidence? Don’t think so.

I will start with the Saints who come in as the seven-point underdogs this week with their only motivation being keeping their division rivals from securing the #2 seed. It doesn’t sound like much but after a long season there is no way coach Sean Payton lets his team rollover and die in the final week of the season. Drew Brees is one of only three quarterbacks in the league this year to average over 300 yards passing per game and he lead the way with a whopping 324 yards per game.

The Falcons are easily the better team and should be able to get up early with a big play or two which could lead to picture perfect game script for Brees and the offense. The Player Lab and projections show us a high volume for Brees this week with a projected 44 pass attempts, which isn’t out of the question at all seeing as he has hit that total five times this season and now plays in the highest total game of the year. The Saints are a team where you can easily justify stacking a three-headed monster as there should be more than enough volume to go around. Brandin Cooks is the most explosive option and since his goose egg in Week 12 has seen eight or more targets and five or more receptions in four straight games. Michael Thomas has been a pleasant surprise in his first season in the NFL, leading all rookie wideouts in yards (981), receptions (82) and sits behind only Tyreke Hill in touchdowns (8). Load up on the Saints.

Atlanta Falcons
QB – Matt Ryan
Elite Options – Julio Jones

On the other side of the ball it gets a bit tricky and here’s why. We all know the upside with Julio Jones and Matt Ryan although we haven’t seen it lately due to a toe injury that Jones has been dealing with over the last few weeks. There is talk in Falcons camp that Julio could be fully unleashed for this Week 17 matchup where they are trying to clamp down the #2 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. We won’t know more until Friday after practice. As for Ryan, he is putting up a MVP-like season sitting third in passing yards (4,613), touchdowns (34) and completion percentage (69.5%) while leading the league with an elite 9.26 yards per attempt. He is also doing all this with a very balanced offense that includes the two-headed running back monster of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

The biggest thing for this stack is to pay close attention to the injury reports and news leading up to Sunday. I am really hoping the fear of Jones nagging injury will push people off the Falcons leaving them lower owned than the should be.

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Option – Jordy Nelson
Secondary Option – Devante Adams
Correlation WR – Golden Tate

I mentioned in the Saints write up that there were only two games (four options) when looking for Vegas totals over 50 points this week. Matthew Stafford has not been the same since getting his finger cast, so I will turn my attention to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. He is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings above average pass defense. It was the 10th time he has gone over 20 fantasy points and the fourth time going over 30 points. He now gets a Lions defense that ranks 28th in Defense vs. the Pass and have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks for the season. Rodgers has an elite option in Jordy Nelson who sits sixth in receiving yards (1,191) but leads all wideouts in touchdowns (14) and has seen double-digit targets in six of his last eight games. Devante Adams is the clear second option in the passing game as he has seen six or more targets in 10 straight weeks while Cobb has only reached those totals three times in those 10 games. With the NFC North and Rodgers “run the table” promise on the line, we can expect a massive effort from Mr. RELAX.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Arizona Cardinals & David Johnson

Although the Cardinals won’t be taking part in the playoff tournament this season, David Johnson should clearly be in the MVP discussion. He currently sits fifth in rushing yards (1,233) and first in receiving yards (841) among running backs. Johnson is also currently the only player with over 2,000 all-purpose yards this season. He became the first player in history to accumulate 100 or more yards from scrimmage in each of his first 15 games of the season and now has a total of 33 touchdowns in just 31 career games. He doesn’t get the best of matchups this week as the Rams rank 7th in Defense vs. the Pass but DJ is pretty much as matchup proof as they come.

The Cardinals defense makes an excellent correlation play with Johnson and also comes with some upside this week. They have been consistent lately scoring six or more fantasy points in six of their last seven games. On top of that, they rank sixth in takeaways (25) while the Rams give up the fifth most giveaways of any team this season. Add it all up and the Cards are due for their first double-digit fantasy game since Week 6.