NFL Start 'em Stack Targets for Week 11 – 11/18/16

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
QB – Eli Manning
Elite Options – Odell Beckham Jr.
Value Option – Sterling Shepard

After entering the above filters into the Player Lab Tool this week it spit out two options, both of which I will be heavy on this week. I lead off with the Giants who come into Week 11 red hot winning four straight games to keep pace with the Cowboys in the NFC East. They are a terrific team to stack almost every week as they are such a throw heavy team. Looking at the Player Lab Tool you will notice that the Giants rely on passing for 78% of their total yards and 79% of their total touchdowns on offense. Eli Manning comes in with an affordable price due to inconsistency but is coming in on a roll throwing three or more touchdowns in three of his last four games. He benefits from having an elite WR in Odell Beckham Jr. who sits sixth in the league in targets per game (10.1) and has not had less than eight in any week this season. After starting the year off with four straight games without a touchdown, OBJ has exploded with six in his last five games. The Bears come in ranked 19th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool and have given up some big days to wide receivers this season. Take a look at Weeks 1, 5 and 7 for instance. Looking at the Pro Football Focus Player Grades for Cornerbacks the Bears only have one (Bryce Callahan) who ranks among the Top 50 and he hasn’t touched the field since Week 7. They will most likely lock Tracy Porter on OBJ which could end up being a big mismatch as Porter has been dealing with a knee injury. The Bears lack depth in the secondary so expect both OBJ and Shepard to receive double-digit targets even with RB Rashad Jennings back in the mix.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Elite Option – Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell

The Steelers are one of only a few teams you can feel confident in running a three-headed QB/WR/RB stack. They will definitely be the chalk this week in an elite matchup vs. the Browns who rank 32nd in Defense vs. the Pass giving up 275 yards per game. I think you embrace the chalk this week and differentiate your lineups in other areas. It’s going to be tough to get all three in your lineup which puts the emphasis on finding the right value plays. It’s a scenario where I would build five or more lineups all with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell and interchange the rest of the lineup. The volume will surely be there as the Browns not only allow opponents 67+ plays per game but the Steelers rely on the passing game for 76% of their yards and 78% of their touchdowns. It makes sense when you have Big Ben throwing to Brown, who sits behind only Mike Evans in targets per week (11.6) for WR’s, and Bell who leads all RB’s in targets (9.3) this season. The only concern in this game is the forecast for 25+ mph winds in Cleveland. Monitor the weather leading up to the game and make your best call. I will be updating the weather on Twitter (@jager_bombs9) if you want to check in before lineup lock.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
QB – Blake Bortles
Elite Option – Allen Robinson

If you are looking to go contrarian this week and take on a little risk consider the garbage-time king Blake Bortles. It comes as no surprise he is projected for 43+ pass attempts as he has exceeded those totals in each of his last four games. He has only topped 300 yards passing once in that span but has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of those four games. He has an elite WR to count on in Allen Robinson who is coming off his first 100 yard game of the season last week against the Texans tough pass defense. Things will get much easier this week in a matchup vs. the Lions who rank 31st in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool. Game flow should also be in the Jags favor as the Lions open as 6.5 point home favorites. I smell the garbage already.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Miami Dolphins & Jay Ajayi

Week 11 marks a great week to jump on board the Dolphins defense. They have recorded eight interceptions and 12 sacks over their last four games and now get a golden matchup against first overall pick Jared Goff making his NFL regular season debut. Is he ready? That has been the question all season as we have had to witness Case Keenum continually underperform behind center. He was touted by draft experts as having NFL-caliber tools but took longer than expected to pick up the offense which is a change from what he ran at Cal. Look for the Dolphins to put on the pressure from the opening whistle which gives us upside of multiple sacks and turnovers.

The running game for the Dolphins appears to be in a tough spot as the Rams rank 9th in Defense vs. the Run. They will be tested this week as the Dolphins, on the back of Jay Ajayi, rank third in the league in rushing offense when looking at DVOA rankings on Football Outsiders. Ajayi somewhat disappointed last week with just 79 yards rushing after totals of 111, 214 and 204 the three previous weeks. Not that those monster weeks are sustainable. From a yards per game perspective, the Rams are giving up over 100 yards rushing (17th) so another 100 yard game for Ajayi is definitely in the cards. Chances are he will also be extremely low owned, perfect for large field GPP’s.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab