NFL Start 'em Stack Targets for Week 7 – 10/21/16

Chris Durell

If you have been using the Player Lab Tool note that all the data took a season switch over over the past couple of days with 2016 data now displayed. There is a tremendous amount of data available, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB – Jameis Winston
Elite Options – Mike Evans
Value Option – Cameron Brate

With the news of Doug Martin out again this week and Vincent Jackson being placed on the IR there is going to be some additional targets to go around with limited options in the Bucs offense. Coming into the week Mike Evans is second to only Antonio Brown in targets per game (12.3) this season and like I said, that could get a boost this week. For those who aren’t already sold let’s take a look at the matchup. The Bucs face the 1-5 49ers who rank 22nd in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool and have allowed a high 69.5 plays to the opposition when looking at the Pace rankings. The game has a thin spread so if the game does stay close look for Jameis Winston to chuck it up 40+ times this game with Evans ceiling around 15+ targets. If Evans gets 15+ targets that means Winston has to be targeting other players as well. Cameron Brate makes an excellent value option at TE as he has received the 10th most targets per game (5.8) among TE’s.

New England Patriots
QB – Tom Brady
Elite Option – Rob Gronkowski
Value Option – Julian Edelman, James White

As long as Tom Brady keeps putting up elite numbers you will continue to see the Patriots listed as an elite stacking option. In his two games back he has thrown for 406 and 376 yards with three touchdowns in each game. No matter the game flow the Patriots keep throwing the ball like they want Brady to break records in limited action. Of all the QB’s in the upper tier in pricing he has the highest PTS/$ value as he is projected for 40+ pass attempts and 20+ fantasy points on both sites. His #1 option will once again be Rob Gronkowski who has put up back to back 100+ yard games. The ceiling is even higher as the touchdown totals should start to rise as well. If you are looking for value and low-ownership take a look at Julian Edelman who has been disappointing all season and has not recorded over 40 yards receiving in four straight weeks but has received 17 targets in two games since Brady returned. Another benefactor of Tom Brady’s return is RB James White who has received 15 targets in his last two games, catching 12 for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars
QB – Blake Bortles
Elite Option – Allen Robinson
Value Options – Allen Hurns

The Jags fall under the contrarian section as they are never high owned and have seen their prices drop considerably as they have disappointed for the most part averaging the 29th most yards per game (320) this season. Since week’s one and two where Blake Bortles threw for 300+ yards in both he has gone three straight without. There is a ton of upside however as he has an elite WR in Allen Robinson who he has targeted 10+ times in three of their five games. Robinson’s price has been steady in the low $8K range all season on FanDuel but has hit a low on DraftKings making a great buy low opportunity. It also helps the Jags get an elite matchup vs. the Raiders who rank 28th in Defense vs. the Pass and have given up the most yards per game (444.8) of any team in the NFL.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Tennessee Titans Defense and DeMarco Murray

The Titans haven’t exploded as a fantasy defense lately, but they have been incredibly consistent with six sacks in back to back games. They are a defensive team score away from a huge day but either way we will take the 6-15 points we have been getting with them. When looking at the Player Lab Tool, you will see they rank 8th in Defense vs. the Pass and 10th in Defense vs. the Run. They will get a great opportunity to once again put up big sack totals as they face Andrew Luck who has already been sacked a league-high 23 times.

While the defense will be doing their thing against the Colts offense, the Titans will once again put a big workload in the hands of DeMarco Murray who sits 4th in league rushing (526 yards) with an impressive 4.6 yards per carry average. He will be chalky this week as he faces a defense that ranks dead last in Defense vs. the Rush when looking at the Player Lab tool but is impossible to fade at this point.