NFL Start 'em Stack Targets for Week 8 – 10/28/16

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool , and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson
Value Option – Randall Cobb, Davante Adams

Kicking off Week 8 is the Green Bay Packers who will make the flight South to Atlanta to face the Falcons in the highest projected Vegas total of the week (53). There are many reasons that favor Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense over the Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense. Looking at the Player Lab, Rodgers is projected for around six more pass attempts, mostly due to game flow projections as the Falcons are early three-point favorites. Looking at the Pace column, there is also a big difference as the Falcons offense is allowing an average of 68 plays per game to opponents while the Packers just 58. Ownership is going to play a huge role this week as well as Ryan should be favored as he is the top QB in fantasy through seven weeks of the season while Rodgers has struggled with just one 300+ yard passing game. Rodgers is also the more expensive option. The Packers passing game should also receive a boost as they lack a trustworthy run game with Eddie Lacy out of action. The matchup vs. the Falcons secondary on a player vs. player basis doesn’t look great but on the Player Lab the Falcons rank 26th in Defense vs. the Pass. Rodgers favorite target Jordy Nelson was shadowed by Tracy Porter last week and is in line for a big bounce back game as he is projected for around 9.5 targets this week. If you feel the Falcons will put emphasis on Jordy then you will want to stack Rodgers with Devante Adams and *Randall Cobb who both shined last week with three combined touchdowns.

Tampa Bay Bucanneers
QB – Jameis Winston
Elite Option – Mike Evans
Value Option – Cameron Brate, Adam Humphries

The Bucs were my top stack last week and while Jacquizz Rodgers stole some of the show I am going back to the well again this week. The matchup is even better this week as they face a Raiders teams that ranks 27th in Defense vs. the Pass. The Raiders also have a very productive offense with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree and should prove to be a much stronger test for the Bucs than the 49ers were last week. This should keep the game close forcing more pass attempts for QB Jameis Winston. He comes at a very affordable price on both sites (DK-$5,700, FD-$7,400) and is ranked #1 in PTS/$ on both sites. His top target, as always, will be Mike Evans who sits third in the league in targets (73) and has already had his BYE week. He is projected for 11 targets on the Player Lab and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him once again exceed that number. If you want to add a value option to your Bucs stack consider punt TE Cameron Brate or value WR Adam Humphries who could see an uptick in targets this week.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
Elite Option – Brandon Marshall
Value Options – Quincy Enunwa

As a disclaimer I will start off by saying that the Jets should not be used if you are in a high buy in or small field tournament. If you are multi-entering a large field GPP then they are definitely in play and will be very low-owned as their offense ranks 22nd in yards per game. The thing I like most about the Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick is that unless he is injured there will be no replacing him and with no Decker you can expect a high usage rate for WR Brandon Marshall who is projected for the second most targets this week. You also won’t find a better matchup as the Browns rank dead last in Defense vs. the Pass when looking at the Player Lab tool for Week 8.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Denver Defense and RB Devontae Booker vs. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers will take their 1-3 road record into an extremely difficult environment in Denver to face one of the toughest and highest scoring defenses in the league. The Broncos are an elite unit who have allowed the third-fewest yards per game (291.6) and average 10+ fantasy points per week on both sites. The Broncos strongest part of their defense has been against the pass as they have allowed the fewest yards per game (175) and rank 4th vs. the Pass when looking at the Player Lab Tool. They will have a great opportunity for some turnovers as the Chargers have given up four interceptions and lost 11 fumbles on the year, which is the third most giveaways of any team.

After last week where the Broncos implemented a running back split, we didn’t feel very comfortable rostering either of the options. Well, that changed dramatically after news was released today CJ Anderson will be sidelined with a meniscus tear that will keep him out for the remainder of the regular season. This opens the door wide open for Devontae Booker who is now projected to get around 24 carries as the workhorse. The matchup isn’t great, but it isn’t bad either as the Chargers come into the week ranked 18th in Defense vs. the Run. The Broncos are also 4.5 point favorites so game flow should definitely be in Booker’s favor.