NFL Start 'em Stack Targets for Week 9 – 11/04/16

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool , and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson
Value Option – Davante Adams

Relax! Aaron Rodgers is back ladies and gentlemen. While he didn’t throw 300 yards last week he recorded four touchdowns, to four different receivers, without the services of Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb. As of Thursday night it is still unclear on either of their statuses, and I just don’t see Rodgers throwing three-quarters of his touchdowns to Geronimo Allison, Jeff Janis and Trevor Davis. That means a big game is coming for Jordy Nelson and the pair, that comes at a high cost, makes a terrific combination on Sunday. The Colts rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass this season and could be without the services of star corner Vontae Davis who is currently in the league’s concussion protocol. If you are looking for value you rely on Devante Adams once again of Montgomery and/or Cobb is out. He has seen 20 targets over the last two weeks, catching 15 for 206 yards and two touchdowns.

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Option – Brandon Cooks
Value Option – Michael Thomas

Looking at the Player Lab Tool this week I tried to narrow down the field with filters you see above. Only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees showed up. Brees has been astounding once again this season with 2,366 yards passing completing 69.5% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. If you are looking for volume the Saints offense is the place to be as Brees has attempted 35+ passes in every game this season with 42+ in five of those games. A lot of it has to do with a run game that is struggling withMark Ingram but the Saints are pass happy and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. They get an elite matchup this week against the 49ers who rank 27th in Defense vs. the Pass and are one of only two teams playing this week that allow 70+ plays per game to their opponents.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Miami Dolphins
QB – Ryan Tannehill
Elite Option – Jarvis Landry

The Miami Dolphins once again fall into the contrarian portion of the article as the game is projected for just 44 total points. There is still a lot to like about the Dolphins this week. They went into their bye week winning two straight against the Steelers and Bills outscoring them 58-40. The contrarian part of the stack is that those wins were on the back of an astonishing two-game rushing attack from Jay Ajayi who became just the fourth player ever to record back to back 200+ rushing games. Ryan Tannehill struggled big time in those two games throwing for just 456 yards combined with just one touchdown. What is to like this week? First of all, I don’t think there is any way Ajayi will come anywhere near his previous two weeks totals as the matchup is against an extremely tough Jets team that ranks 3rd in Defense vs. the Rush. This explains the sky high passing attempt projection (39) for Tannehill and combine that with the fact the Jets rank 29th vs. the pass. Add it all up and you could get low-ownership with tremendous opportunity for 300+ pass yards and multiple touchdowns and discounted prices.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs & Charcandrick West

The 5-2 Chiefs come into this week’s home matchup vs. the 2-5 Jaguars on a hot streak from a fantasy perspective. They have scored double-digit points in three straight in four of their last five games and lead the league with 11 interceptions on the season. They now face a team in the Jags who rank 21st in the league with a -8 turnover differential and 26th ranked offense on a yards per game basis. Look for another double-digit effort in Week 9.

From a running back standpoint you aren’t getting a stud this week but rather a top value play due to injuries. Jamaal Charles was placed on IR last week and Spencer Ware left last game and did not return with a concussion. Definitely monitor the status of Ware going into the weekend but if he does not play, West becomes a near must play on both sites vs. a Jags team that ranks 27th in Defense vs. the Pass.