Optimizer Pitchers and Stacks – 8/31/16
Chris Durell
Happy Hump day to all you DFSers out there still grinding away as the MLB season is about to enter it’s final month of the regular season. Before the calendar flips we have one day left in August to crush the competition. Wednesday brings us a split slate with six early and nine evening games. If you are one of those players who normally avoids the early slate I suggest changing your pattern today. There are some terrific pitching options as well as another game in Coors Field. Let’s dig in and take a look at a top pitching option and stacking option from each slate today.
Pitchers
David Phelps FD 6700 DK 8500
Opponent – NYM (Colon) Park – @NYM
FD – 27.61 DK – 18.23
After Phelps’ short outing against the Padres last Friday, it’s no doubt he will be low owned today, creating and interesting scenario. He was pulled after 3.2 innings but wasn’t actually that bad. He fanned 6 and only allowed 2 hits but the guys behind him let him down. Yes he will be low owned, and that’s nice, but the upside is the more interesting part. Since August he has an 11.84 K/9 rate, which is certainly elite, yet is giving free passes in the form of walks at over 3.5 per nine. If he can limit the BB’s today against NYM, he should return solid value for the salary, especially on FanDuel at under $7K.
Corey Kluber FD 10800 DK 11200
Opponent – MIN (Dean) Park – @CLE
FD – 41.23 DK – 26.78
Corey Kluber comes into tonight’s matchup absolutely dealing since the All Star break. He has gone 5-0 in eight starts with a 1.84 ERA and 9.39 K/9 rate. He sits in a terrific spot to build on those numbers tonight as the Indians are gigantic -300 home favorites vs. the struggling Twins who have lost 12 straight games and sit as only one of two teams who have yet to reach the 50 win plateau. After their hot streak earlier in the month they have fallen to the middle of the pack against right handed pitching with a 21.6% strikeout rate. Kluber is an elite option in any format tonight.
Stacks
Boston Red Sox vs. Drew Smyly (Rays)
Park -Fenway Park
The Rockies /Dodgers game will obviously be the favorite stack for most of today as the projected total sits around 12 runs. I am going to turn my attention away from Coors and lock on Fenway today as the Red Sox are the highest scoring team in the league and projected to score around 5.3 runs today in a great matchup. They will face off against Drew Smyly who’s heavy fly ball rate isn’t ideal in Fenway with the Monster in left. He does have some K upside but the Red Sox have the 6th best K rate(18.9%) against southpaws and rank 3rd in wOBA and wRC+. Dustin Pedroia is again leading off making him a top value in the stack with huge upside provided by Xander Bogaearts and Mookie Betts. You will have to make a decision at 1B today as both David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez qualify at the position. I side with Hanley who is most likely lower owned and hits left handed pitching slightly better.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Matt Garza (Brewers)
Park – Miller Park
The Cardinals are an excellent value stack as they get a big upgrade going into Miller Park facing the brewers. They rank 4th in wOBA and 2nd in Isolated Power against right handed pitching and get a matchup vs. a below average pitcher tonight. Matt Garza is coming off his best start of the season pitching 5.1 shutout innings while striking out nine batters. This is definitely not the norm as he sits with an awful 4.77 xFIP and low 5.86 K/9 rate for the season while walking just over 3.5 batters per nine. The top plays for the Cards are Brandon Moss, who is raking in August with eight home runs and 21 RBI, and Matt Carpenter is back hitting leadoff and starting to heat up with hits in seven of his last eight games. To figure out the rest of the puzzle we will need to see the lineups come out as the Cards shift guys around a ton- which can open up tremendous value if some lower guys in the lineup move up the order.