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Fantasy Football 101: Draft Picks Strategies and Running Back Concerns

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Last week I wrote up a report on how to approach your fantasy draft before your draft day. Whether this is your first ever fantasy football draft or your tenth, that guide will help you craft a team that will put you in a good position to win your league with the proper draft pick strategies.

Now, being that it is “National Draft Week,” I’ll look into providing you with a strategy for wherever you may be picking, either 1-12 through the first five rounds in this installment of Fantasy Football 101. A lot can be pre-decided if you know where you are picking in your fantasy draft, but the later picks in the draft should generate some discussion.

Generally, a top 5 pick guarantees you a top tier running back to build your team around. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this season. This season the “top tier” running backs ranked 3 through 12 all have question marks. That leaves us with two consensus running backs, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Those two will be the first two players off the board in 98% of leagues. There’s no justification needed to draft either of these guys in the first round because they’re so far and beyond better than the next best running back. I’m going to point out some concerns over the next running backs with their average draft position (ADP) within the first two rounds.

LeSean McCoy - Buffalo Bills - draft pick strategies

LeSean McCoy – Ever since the news about the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, McCoy has moved up to the number three ranked running back. While McCoy provides lots of upside for the number three ranked back, he has some concerns heading into the 2017 season. McCoy plays for the dumpster fire that is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense will be managed by former Denver Broncos Coordinator, Rick Dennison. Dennison ranked in the middle of the pack in run-pass percentage last season with the Broncos, which is surprising considering they had a subpar quarterback for most of the season. It will be interesting to see how much Dennison decides to utilize McCoy in his offense that no longer has a receiver that could stretch the field. That is because the Bills also just traded away their number one receiver and cornerback, so it’s anyone’s guess what direction this team is heading and if they even are looking to win this season. The Bills could find themselves out of several games early and often this season, and that doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s touch numbers.

Verdict: McCoy is a talented back that has finished in the top three of running back scoring in three of the last four seasons. His talent isn’t questioned, it’s the team that surrounds him that makes me skeptical of using a top 3 or even 5 pick on him with the direction of the organization. I’d be willing to pick him as early as 8th overall.

Melvin Gordon – Like McCoy, Melvin Gordon provides a good deal of upside, which is why I have him ranked as my number four running back. He had a nice bounce back season after a terrible rookie year in 2015. With Anthony Lynn as the new head coach, Gordon could be a lock to have his first 1,000-yard season. The biggest flaws with Melvin Gordon is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked the Los Angeles Chargers as the 21st ranked offensive line in the league. The Chargers did their best to upgrade their offensive line by adding Russell Okung and Dan Feeney but whether or not they have a good year remains to be seen. Gordon is also coming off of a knee injury that cut his season short last season. He didn’t have surgery in the offseason, so that’s a good sign, but owners who are investing a top 10 pick would want to keep an eye on that knee this preseason.

Verdict: Gordon plays for a Charger offense that has plenty of weapons to keep the defense honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon has a breakout season. He relied heavily on touchdowns last season so if his TD numbers don’t translate into this season he could see a drop in points. There’s no other running back on the Chargers roster that will take away from Gordon’s reps, and Anthony Lynn has proven to feed his running backs the ball with 14 consecutive 1,000-yard rushers in his career. I can justify taking Gordon as the 10th pick.

Devonta Freeman - draft pick strategies - Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman – Freeman has been a pleasant surprise over the past two seasons. He’s a dual threat running back that plays for the most dangerous offense in the NFL. However, there are reasons to be wary of drafting him in the top ten. Freeman’s touches last year were down from his 2015 breakout season. Last year Freeman had 58 fewer touches than he did in 2015, that is due in large part to Tevin Coleman. Also, Atlanta lost their offensive guru Kyle Shanahan and replaced him with Steve Sarkisian. There’s no telling how Sarkisian will run this high powered offense, but that could mean that Freeman loses some pass catching opportunities, which hurts his value.

Verdict: Freeman is the more talented back out of the two in Atlanta. He received most of the goal line work last season and didn’t have to worry about eight men in the box with Matt Ryan under center. Freeman is a borderline top 12 pick in my opinion as the wide receivers available at the end of the first round are too consistent to pass up. He’s missed time this preseason due to concussion concerns so that would be a situation to monitor moving forward.

DeMarco Murray – Murray had a nice bounce back season last year after an atrocious season with the Eagles. Despite being 29, he didn’t falter with production, totaling over 1,500 total yards last season. The concern here is with his role in the team moving forward. We saw rookie running back Derrick Henry steal some of his touches last year, and he was producing with the opportunities. Henry had 123 touches and scored five times last season. Being that it’s Henry’s second year in the offense, you can expect to see him eat into Murray’s production particularly in the second half of the season. Aside from Henry’s presence, the Titans also revamped their passing game by drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker in free agency. Mariota has plenty of offensive weapons now with Davis, Decker, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews, so it’s fair to question Murray’s workload this season.

Verdict: Murray will still be the featured back in this backfield, but barring injury or a breakout season by Henry who knows what his workload could look like. The Titans like to run the ball, but with a revamped passing game perhaps the offense becomes more balanced this season. Nonetheless, Murray is still a solid option if you’re drafting at the later part of your draft. I see Murray as a top 14 pick in non-PPR format.

draft pick strategies - Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott – This is pretty clear, the suspension really killed his ADP. After being hit with a six-game suspension, Elliott went from number 3 overall to a borderline second rounder, in my opinion. There’s no doubt about Elliott’s talent and supporting cast, but the fact that he’s going to miss half of the fantasy season puts teams who draft him in a difficult spot.

Verdict: Elliott was one of the few running backs that could look to improve off of a stellar rookie season. The suspension is certainly something that should weigh down his value, but if you do decide to take him, make sure you’re drafting Darren McFadden as a handcuff in the later rounds. There are too many solid wide receivers to justify taking Elliott in the first or even early second round. I see Elliot drafted within the top 24 picks, but even that could be a reach. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be a top 5 back. But risking half of the fantasy season on one player is a risk too steep for me to get over. Elliott would need to fall dramatically for me to own him this season.

These next few guys I’m going to bunch into one category because they all fall under the same tree.

Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Isaiah Crowell – All these running backs round out the top 12 of the running back position. What do all these backs have in common? They all play for bad teams. Every one of these running backs plays for a team that has quarterback questions. This leads to more men in the box and less running lanes. It also will be difficult for running backs to get consistent touches on a weekly basis when their team projected always to be trailing. It isn’t as if these running backs are multi dimensional. For the exception of Gurley and Crowell, none of these backs caught more than 40 passes last season so, for the most part, they are dependent on rushing yards and touchdowns.

Verdict: We know that each of these running backs possesses high upside. We saw Ajayi’s 200-yard weeks, Howard and Crowell had nice seasons last year for terrible teams, Gurley was an absolute stud two years ago, and Fournette is considered the best running back out of this rookie class. They just aren’t as safe as the wide receivers available in their draft range.

If I’d have to go with two of these backs, I’d say my favorite would be Gurley and Crowell. Gurley had a terrible follow-up to his rookie season, but now with new head coach Sean McVay and an upgraded offensive line, it’ll be interesting to see how McVay incorporates Gurley into the offense. The Rams offense added a few offensive weapons in Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins so if Jared Goff can make a leap perhaps Gurley can have another big season. Isaiah Crowell had a sneaky good season last year, which is why I like him. I’ve seen Crowell fall on draft boards because he plays for the Browns but here’s the thing. The Browns actually come into the season with the number 2 ranked offensive line according to PFF.com. Although the Browns are likely to be terrible yet again, Crowell has established himself as the feature back in Cleveland over Duke Johnson and should score the majority of the points that Clevland scores this season.

Recap:

The Running Back position is the most important position in fantasy football. This is a position where it’s difficult to find production when you miss on top players. This year is not easy just jamming in the top running back in your first two picks. Aside from the creme of the crop, the other top running backs have some issues that you should at least consider before investing your first pick on one of them. When you compare that to the depth of top wide receiver position, it’s tough to justify forcing a running back to your team in the early rounds. It really depends on where you draft and who’s available, so I’ll show you how I’d approach a draft based on the different draft slots available.

Live Draft

The picks below were taken from a draft that I participated in earlier this week where I picked 7th. I’ll add some input on each team’s picks through the first five rounds.

Team 1

1.01 – Le’Veon Bell (David Johnson)

2.12 – Dez Bryant

3.01 – Demaryius Thomas

4.12 – Larry Fitzgerald

5.01 -Jordan Reed

What sticks out to me is Bell over Johnson, but there really is no right or wrong answer here. Picking at the top of the draft is always difficult to find a solid RB 2. I can understand how this team went WR in three consecutive picks.

Team 2

1.02 – David Johnson

2.11 – Doug Baldwin

3.02 – Rob Gronkowski

4.11 – Danny Woodhead

5.02 – Jarvis Landry

Solid start. Again this shows that when you pick early in the draft, it’s hard to find a decent RB 2 in the first three rounds. I think this team made out okay by drafting Woodhead in the fourth round.

Team 3

1.03 – Antonio Brown (Julio Jones)

2.10 – Leonard Fournette

3.03 – DeAndre Hopkins

4.10 – Frank Gore

5.03 – Delanie Walker

This team was a prime example of drafting a player based on the need to fill every starting spot right away. Drafting Walker was a reach if I’ve ever seen one. Walker has an ADP of going in the 8th round and the fact that he got taken in the 5th shows this team panicked when they saw the TE position thinning out and drafted by need, not by value. Also, I can’t see drafting Hopkins over Pryor or Crowell, but maybe this team knows something I don’t.

Team 4

1.04 – Mike Evans  (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)

2.09 – Ezekiel Elliott (Dez Bryant)

3.04 – Terrelle Pryor

4.09 – Bilal Powell

5.04 – Mark Ingram

This team took the chance to draft Elliott. Elliott was drafted in the late second round, which is right around where I’d expect him to go. My issue with this is that he didn’t do that great of a job covering his grounds by drafting Ingram and Powell, both are backs that split time and don’t have lots of upside. Ingram? Maybe but that’s only at the end of the season if Peterson gets injured.

Team 5

1.05 – LeSean McCoy (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)

2.08 – Brandin Cooks (Dez Bryant)

3.05 – Marshawn Lynch

4.08 – Golden Tate

5.05 – Devante Adams

Out of the first five teams, this is the team to beat right now. One thing that this team did that’s worth noting is that they skipped over three pretty good wide receivers (Jones, OBJ, & Green). This team was set on running back early and drafted McCoy. In this case, it worked out because of how low the receivers dropped, and the team was able to draft a good WR in the second round. Not a bad strategy when you consider how deep WR is.

Team 6

1.06 – Julio Jones

2.07 – Michael Thomas

3.06 – Isaiah Crowell

4.07 – Alshon Jeffery

5.06 – Greg Olsen

Solid start. Would be interesting to see where this team goes for their second running back slot.

Team 7 – My team

1.07 – Odell Beckham Jr.

2.06 – Todd Gurley

3.07 – Christian McCaffrey

4.06 – Aaron Rodgers

5.07 – Emmanuel Sanders

First off, I was thrilled that OBJ fell this far in the draft. This was a no brainer for me, and I still can’t fathom how this happened. The one thing I did here that I RARELY do is I drafted a QB. But to me drafting Rodgers in the fourth round was too good of a value to pass up. The decision was between Rodgers and Tate, and I felt that Rodgers production was far and away better than the other QBs than Tate was with the remaining WR. Hence the Sanders pick that followed.

Team 8

1.08 – Devonta Freeman (Melvin Gordon)

2.05 – Amari Cooper

3.08 – Dalvin Cook

4.05 – Martavis Bryant

5.08 – Julian Edelman

I felt Bryant was a reach in the early fourth round, only because you don’t know what role he’ll play with this offense that already has so many mouths to feed.

Team 9

1.09 – A.J. Green

2.04 – Lamar Miller (Dez Bryant or Todd Gurley)

3.09 – Carlos Hyde

4.04 – Kelvin Benjamin (Alshon Jeffery or Aaron Rodgers)

5.09 – Allen Robinson

This team has a solid balance of players who are going to see a lot of volume. I have Gurley and Bryant ranked over Miller, but I can understand why he decided to go with Miller over those two.

Team 10

1.10 – Melvin Gordon

2.03 – T. Y. Hilton

3.10 – Michael Crabtree

4.03 – Doug Martin (Alshon Jeffery)

5.10 – Kareem Hunt

My biggest issue here is drafting Hilton this early. With Luck’s timetable up in the air, you don’t know what type of production you’re going to get from Hilton Scott Tolzien behind center. Also, Doug Martin is suspended for the first four games.

Team 11

1.11 – Jordy Nelson

2.02 – DeMarco Murray

3.11 – Tom Brady

4.02 – Travis Kelce

5.11 – Jamison Crowder

This team jumped the gun on Tom Brady and Travis Kelce. Certainly two of the top players in their position but this puts the team under pressure to have a strong back end of the draft at essential positions.

Team 12 

1.12 – Jordan Howard

2.01 – Jay Ajayi

3.12 – Ty Montgomery

4.01 – Keenan Allen

5.12 – Tyreek Hill

The triple running backs method. It didn’t seem to hurt this team as they were able to get some wideouts with high upside. Ironically I think the wideouts are safer than the running backs, though.






Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 08/26/2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner*

Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks – Saturday, August 26

There are going to be some great offensive opportunities to take advantage of for to your lineup Saturday as there are few elite starters taking the mound. Put your favorite daily fantasy baseball stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the MLB Player Lab.

**STARTING PITCHERS**

Gio Gonzalez vs. New York Mets
Park – Nationals Park

Gonzalez has been excellent this season as he enters Saturday 12-5 with a 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 162 innings. As crazy as it sounds considering his minuscule ERA for the season, he has been even better lately as he has allowed one earned in his last four starts combined. He is a quality start machine as well as he has recorded one in 14 of his last 15 outings. There are a couple of advantages working in Gonzalez’s favor Saturday. First, he has had success against the Mets already this season by posting a 2.03 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two starts against the division rivals. Second, he is excellent at home as he has a sparkling 1.79 ERA this season at Nationals Park. Start Gonzalez with confidence Saturday.

Sonny Gray vs. Seattle Mariners
Park – Yankee Stadium

Gray has had mixed results since being traded to the Yankees. While he has a solid 3.13 ERA with his new club, he only has a 1-3 record to show for it and has an unimpressive 1.35 WHIP. His strikeouts are down in pinstripes as well as he only has 17 in 23 innings. Saturday brings a familiar foe in the Mariners, who Gary has faced off against many times as a member of the Oakland Athletics. He has handled the Mariners well over his career, posting a 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 66 innings. This match up has the makings of promising results for Gray.

**OFFENSIVE STACKS**

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dillon Gee (Minnesota Twins)
Park – Rogers Centre

Gee has been used primarily as a reliever this season as he has made nine appearances in total for the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins, but only two of them were starts. His numbers are very good as he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP overall. Gee struggled as a starter for the Kansas City Royals last year though as he posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 14 starts. He’s a better bullpen option at this point in his career, but the Twins need him in their rotation. Look for the Blue Jays lineup to put up some big numbers against Gee Saturday.

Players to consider stacking: Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak and Kevin Pillar

New York Yankees vs. Yovani Gallardo (Seattle Mariners)
Park – Yankee Stadium

Gallardo’s first season in Seattle has not been a success as he is 5-9 with a 5.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 86 strikeouts in 117.1 innings. He doesn’t give them much length either as he has pitched five innings or less in three of his last four starts. Gallardo has allowed 21 home runs this season, which could be a recipe for disaster against the Yankees as they entered Friday with 101 home runs at home this season. Don’t expect Gallardo to have much success against the Bronx Bombers Saturday.

Players to consider stacking: Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the fourth and final of our season previews, we’ll break down tight ends and defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers get most of the attention, but having a quality tight end on your roster can help elevate your squad to a championship level.

While most owners wait to select defenses/special teams until the final rounds of your draft, that doesn’t mean it’s a throwaway position. Finding one that can create turnovers, accumulate sacks and throw in the occasional return touchdown can provide plenty of valuable points for your team.

Let’s examine some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Martellus Bennett - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Martellus Bennett – Green Bay Packers

You can put Bennett into this category just about every season as the Packers will be his fifth different team in the last seven seasons. He had the best season of his career in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bears as he recorded 90 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots signed him to be their second tight end last season, but he ended up with a larger role than expected as Rob Gronkowski was injured yet again. Bennett played all 16 games and finished with 55 receptions, 701 yards and seven touchdowns.

Bennett will be the undisputed starter in Green Bay, becoming possibly the most talented tight end that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the pleasure of playing with. Last season’s tight end duo of Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 60 receptions, 648 yards and three touchdowns.

Bennett is certainly a better player than either Cook or Rodgers and should present a better red zone target as well. The Packers have a great receiving trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as well Ty Montgomery to catch passes out of the backfield, which could limit Bennett’s receptions a bit. With that being said, Bennett is still likely to be a top-10 fantasy option at tight end.

Julius Thomas – Miami Dolphins

Thomas had his breakout campaign as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2013 when he posted 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Although he only had 43 receptions and 489 yards in 2014, he still provided a ton of value as he again scored 12 touchdowns. It appeared he was going to be one of the elite red zone targets among tight ends in all of football for years to come.

His success was short lived though as he moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Injuries limited him during his tenure with the team as he missed 11 games over the last two seasons. 2016 was a complete disaster as he only had 30 receptions, 281 yards and four touchdowns.

Now a member of the Dolphins, Thomas is looking to rejuvenate his career under the eye of coach Adam Gase. It’s important to note that Gase was on the Broncos’ staff when Thomas was playing at his best. Even though that would appear to be in Thomas’ favor, I’d still stay away from making him your starting tight end.

Tyler Eifert - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Overrated Players

Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert’s best season came in 2015 when he had 52 receptions, 615 yards and an impressive 13 touchdowns in only 13 games. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 11 touchdowns that same season despite playing in two more games and Eifert. That excellent season vaulted Eifert towards the top of the tight end position for fantasy owners last season, but he couldn’t cash in as he was limited to only eight games due to injury.

Eifert supporters will point to the fact that he has 20 touchdowns in 37 career games. That is certainly elite production, but what is more important to note is that those 37 games have come over four seasons. Playing less than 10 games a year on average is a killer for his fantasy value. While he could be a top-5 tight end when healthy, the odds of him staying healthy for an entire season are not great. If you want to take a risk and draft him based on his upside, be sure to not overpay for him on draft day. Based on his current ADP though, you’ll likely have to.

Denver Broncos

To make this clear right off the bat, the Broncos are an excellent defensive team. They allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). Their 42 sacks were tied for third most in the league. Even though they weren’t as impressive against the run, they were still around the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15.

The reason I believe the Broncos defense/special teams is overrated is because it’s likely going to cost you a pick that is higher than either of your last two selections, which is where you should be selecting your defense/special teams and kicker. Looking at ESPN standard scoring last season, the Broncos actually scored the second most fantasy points behind the Minnesota Vikings. The difference between the highest scoring defense/special teams and the tenth highest was only an average of three fantasy points per game.

A difference of three fantasy points per game is not worth reaching for the Broncos. I’d rather take a running back or wide receiver with upside at that point in the draft and worse case scenario, stream my defense/special team throughout the season based on weekly match ups.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Zach Ertz

Undervalued Players

Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles

On an Eagles team that lacked talented wide receivers last season, Ertz played a major role in their passing attack as he had 78 receptions for 816 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 74% of the passes thrown his way and averaged 10.5 yards per reception. Among fellow tight ends, Ertz ranked fifth in both receptions and receiving yards.

Ertz has been very consistent in his career, recording at least 702 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. The last two seasons have been even better as he has at least 106 targets and 75 receptions in both years. He has also averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception in all four of his seasons in the league.

Although the Eagles are much improved this season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still going to be a very important part of their offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz also looks primed to improve his game, which could provide a boost for Ertz. He might not score a ton of touchdowns, but his consistency and yardage provides a lot of value.

Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons

Hooper was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft, but he had a quiet rookie season last year as he had 19 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He only received 27 targets, so he really wasn’t that involved in the offense in general. One of his best games of the season though actually came in the Super Bowl as he had three receptions on six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.

Hooper didn’t have great numbers last year partially because he was in a time share with Jacob Tamme. Tamme finished the season with 22 receptions, 210 yards and three touchdowns. As a unit, Falcons tight ends finished the season with 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Tamme now gone, Hooper is lined up to take over the starting job in only his second season in the league.

The Falcons passing offense was one of the best in the league last year, finishing third in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns and first in yards per pass attempt. With a more prominent role in the offense, Hooper is going to have a chance to establish himself as a viable fantasy option this year. I think at worse he is a top-15 tight end who has the potential to finish in the top-10. Considering how late he is going in drafts, he could be one of the best value picks at the tight end position.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Houston Texans

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Houston Texans

The Texans defense/special team starts off the fantasy playoffs by taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 15. While the Jaguars drafted promising running back Leonard Fournette, they are just a mess at quarterback as Blake Bortles has regressed significantly. They certainly do not have the makings of a potent offense. Week 16 brings a match up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which would appear difficult on the surface, but is more favorable when you consider the game is being played in Houston. As noted in our quarterbacks season preview, Ben Roethlisberger struggles significantly on the road. Things are looking up for the Texans fantasy value at the right time this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs face the Los Angeles Charges in Week 15, a team that does have some fire power. However, this is a home game for Kansas City and they allowed only 16 points per game at home last season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is prone to throwing interceptions as well as he has at least 18 in two of the last three seasons. Week 16 brings another home game, this time against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler also turns the ball over a lot as he has thrown 34 interceptions in his last 35 games. Getting two turnover-prone quarterbacks at home is a major win for the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs.

Difficult Schedules

Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins

I mentioned this before when talking about Tyrelle Pryor in the wide receivers preview, but the Redskins have a brutal schedule when it matters the most. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the stingy Broncos who allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. Reed certainly has his work cut out for him.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are faced with two road games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 will be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have added wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to go along with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Entering his third season in the NFL, quarterback Jameis Winston is poised to take the Bucs offense to the next level. Week 16 brings the nightmare match up against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints scored 32 points against the Falcons when they met them at home as Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns. While I’m not high on the Falcons defense to begin with, you definitely want to avoid them down the stretch.

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 25, 2017

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 25, 2017

Welcome for another big Friday in daily fantasy baseball.

Starting Pitchers

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Zack Greinke - Arizona Diamondbacks

Zack Greinke
Opponent – vs. SF
Park – Chase Field (Hitters Park)
Vegas Favorite (ARI -220)
Vegas Total (9.5)

Don’t be scared off by hitters environment in Arizona as Greinke has been downright dominant at home. So far in 2017, 14 of his 25 start have come at home and he has recorded a very impressive 2.34 ERA, 10.9 K/9 rate, and has limited opponents to a low .250 wOBA. Despite the Giants striking out less than league average, they rank 3rd last in runs scored overall and rank dead last in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. Greinke is safe in all formats.

 

A.J. Cole
Opponent – vs. NYM
Park – Nationals Park (Pitchers Park)
Vegas Favorite (WSH +120)
Vegas Total (8.0)

Before I get into Cole who is a currently a +120 dog i want to clarify that I also like Michael Wacha and Adam Conley as viable SP2 options on DraftKings. Both of those I will be using in cash games but for GPP’s I prefer to save even more salary and roll with Cole. He was recalled this morning to make a spot start for Scherzer and gets a plus matchup vs. a watered down Mets lineup. Cole has gone at least five innings in all four starts this season and if he can control the walks tonight has a chance to crush his value in the $6K range. He also helps pay right up for Greinke and not limit the bats you can get in your lineup.

Top Stacks

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Paul Goldschmidt - Arizona Diamondbacks

For my stacks tonight, i will be paying up for the Diamondbacks who get a terrific home matchup vs. Ty Blach who has struggled mightily on the road with 5.50 ERA. On top of that, he has allowed a .369 wOAB to opponents away from AT&T Park and comes in having allowed 12 earned runs over his last two starts to the Marlins and Phillies(both bottom third offenses). I will be targeting Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock for the most part but also liek teh value in Gregor Blanco if back in the leadoff spot and Chris Iannetta who crushes lefties.

For my value stack I will be turning to the Oakland Athletics tonight. They are going to be low owned due to the perception of the park but looking at the 2017 numbers, Oakland Coliseum has been a Top 5 hitters park this season. Everything is lining up for it to produce some runs tonight as well as the forecast is currently showing 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right center. The A’s also get a nice matchup vs. A.J. Griffin who produces a slate low 28.9% ground balls, a slate high 58.3% fly balls with a 37% hard contact rate. He is also prone to a blow up as he has given up three or more home runs in three of his last seven starts and sits with a 14.3% HR/FB rate.

 

 

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 24, 2017

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 24, 2017

Today we have 12 games split right down the middle and for the purpose of this article, we will be concentrating on the six-game main slate only. Let’s jump in and take a look at a few of the top pitchers and some stacking options.

Starting Pitchers

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez
Opponent – vs. SD
Park – Busch Stadium (Pitchers Park)
Vegas Favorite (STL -220)
Vegas Total (8.0)

Chris Sale is clearly the better pitcher on the main slate but has the tougher matchup and is quite a bit more expensive. From a PTS/$ perspective, I lean Carlos Martinez tonight who hasn’t been a slouch with a 9.4 K/9 rate and 3.62 xFIP on the season. He also gets the way better matchup vs. the Padres who rank second to last in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching and strike out 25% of the time. It makes sense to go with CarMart in all formats and get better bats throughout your lineup.

Jose Berrios
Opponent – @CWS
Park – Guaranteed Rate Field (Neutral)
Vegas Favorite (MIN -165)
Vegas Total (10.0)

The value range is full of risk all over the place so I always lean matchup and upside. Enter Berrios who has been better at home(road tonight) but consider he gets a plus matchup vs. a White Sox team that ranks 28th in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching with a 22.5% K rate. He is also coming off one of his best starts of the season where he shut out the D-Backs over seven innings allowing just two hits with seven strikeouts and one walk. The upside and price is enough to overcome the risk factor.

 

Top Stacks

DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks - Anthony Rizzo

There are a couple ways I am going to go with stacks tonight and it starts with the Cubs who have the highest implied run total(5.4). I am not all concerned that Sal Romano shut down the Braves in his last considering Atlanta is not that strong of an offense to begin with. In his three starts before that, Romano was downright awful giving up 15 earned runs in 17 innings with just 11 strikeouts and nearly 40% hard contact against. I will be turning to Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant(if back in LU), Anthony Rizzo, and Alex Avila as my main targets.

After the Cubs, I will be heavily targeting the Twins who face Derek Holland tonight. He has given 17 earned runs over his last three starts and sits with a 18% HR/FB rate for the season. The stack could also be somewhat low owned as the Twins, as a team, are mid-pack against left-handed pitching but are lead by Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar who rake vs. southpaws.

 

 

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Wide Receivers 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the third of our season previews, we’ll break down the wide receiver position. With the creation of PPR scoring, wide receivers are more valuable now than ever before. Even in standard scoring, creating a stable of quality receivers can help separate you from your competition. Teams are throwing the ball a lot now and using three-receiver sets more often, creating tremendous depth at the position for fantasy owners.

Whether you want to draft elite wide receivers early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Brandin Cooks - New England Patriots - Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots

Cooks is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 1,138 receiving yards and at least eight receiving touchdowns. He has increased his yards per reception in each season of his career, culminating in 15 yards per reception last season. The Saints threw plenty of passes his way as he had 78 receptions on 117 targets last season.

He moves on to the defending champion Patriots this year after being acquired for a first round draft pick. The Patriots are now loaded at wide receiver with Cooks joining the returning cast of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Throw in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen to go along with running backs who can also catch the ball out of the back field and the result is one scary offense.

While quarterback Tom Brady must be excited about all the talent around him, the move to New England did not helps Cooks fantasy value. Edelman had 98 receptions last season, but the receiver with the next most catches was Hogan with only 38. While Edelman might lose some of his workload to Cooks, it’s hard to imagine Cooks getting the same amount of targets he did in New Orleans. He can still have a valuable season, but don’t expect him to be more than a WR2 this season.

Brandon Marshall – New York Giants

The Giants now have a scary wide receiver trio consisting of Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. While Victor Cruz carried significant name recognition, he didn’t fit well with the Giants scheme last season. Cruz is better suited to play in the slot, a position that was occupied by Shepard the majority of the time.

While Cruz wasn’t able to produce on the outside, that is where Marshall has thrived over the course of his career. He had a down year with the New York Jets last season as he only recorded 59 receptions for 788 yards and three touchdowns. However, it’s no secret that the Jets had some of the worst quarterback play in the league.

One stat that jumps out is that Marshall only had a 46.1 catch percentage last season. That was by far the worst percentage of his career and was more than 10 percent worse than every season outside of his rookie campaign.

Marshall’s fantasy prospects have improved with the Giants as although he is clearly their number two receiver, he should see plenty of red zone targets. The Giants use a lot of three-receiver sets and attempted 598 passes last season, good for eighth most in the NFL.

Marshall hold’s more value in standard leagues than in PPR, but expect him to bounce back and  be in the WR2 discussion with Big Blue.

Allen Robinson - Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Jacksonville Jaguars

Overrated Players

Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson took the fantasy world by storm in 2015 when he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns. He averaged 87.5 yards per game and an impressive 17.5 yards per reception. Big things were expected from Robinson again in 2016, making him a selection among the first group of wide receivers taken in most fantasy drafts.

Unfortunately for those who drafted Robinson early, he took a significant step back in 2016. He finished the season with 73 receptions for 883 yards and six touchdowns. His targets were identical in both 2015 and 2016 at 151, but the big difference was his yardage and touchdown totals. Players taken far later than him in most drafts who had more receiving yards last season include Mike Wallace (1,017 yards), Michael Crabtree (1,003 yards)and Rishard Matthews (945 yards).

The main reason for Robinson’s regression was the struggles of quarterback Blake Bortles. Bortles had 35 touchdowns and averaged 12.5 yards per completion in 2015, but only had 23 touchdowns and averaged 10.6 yards per completion in 2016. Things have been so bad for him during the preseason that he could possibly lose the starting job to Chad Henne.

While some owners still remember Robinson’s insane 2015 season and think he could bounce back in a major way this season, I’m not one of them. The struggles at the quarterback position will continue to limit his value, making him a low end WR2 at best. Don’t be surprised is Marshall has a better season than Robinson.

Sammy Watkins – Los Angeles Rams

Watkins got off to a great start to his career, hauling in 65 receptions for 982 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie season in 2014. He followed that up with 60 receptions, 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns while playing in only 13 games in 2015. However, injuries limited him even more in 2016 as he played only eight games. The end result was only 28 receptions, 430 yards and two touchdowns.

The Buffalo Bills have moved on from Watkins, sending him to the Rams as Los Angeles attempts to surround Jared Goff with some talent. Kenny Britt lead the team with 68 receptions for 1,002 yards last season, but he has moved on to the Cleveland Browns. Goff struggled in his seven starts last season, completing only 54.6 percent of his passes and throwing only five touchdowns compared to seven interceptions.

The problem with Watkins from a fantasy perspective is his name still carries more value than his numbers. He has a lot of talent, but injuries have put a major damper on the start of his career. It should not be overlooked that he also had a very solid quarterback with the Bills in Tyrod Taylor. Taylor had a 61.7 percent completion percentage and 17 passing touchdowns compared to only six interceptions in 15 games last year.

When you factor in his injury history and having Goff as his QB, Watkins becomes a risky fantasy option. Let someone else take the risk.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Cameron Meredith - Chicago Bears

Undervalued Players

Cameron Meredith – Chicago Bears

Meredith broke out in 2016 as he hauled in 66 receptions for 888 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 13.5 yards per reception and caught 68 percent of the passes thrown his way. All this production came in only 14 games as he did not play until Week 3. Meredith finished last season on a high note as he had at least 104 yards in two of his last three games and at least 61 yards in each of his last five games.

The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadelphia Eagles this off season, dealing a significant blow to their receiving unit. They did bring in Victor Cruz and Kendall Wright, but neither player is in the same class as Jeffery. Their other main receiver is Kevin White, who can’t seem to stay healthy during his young career. He was limited to only four games last year, recording 19 receptions for 187 yards.

The Bears should also have improved quarterback play this season. They used the trio of Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley last year, which combined for 18 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. This season they signed Mike Glennon away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and draft Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick. Although Glennon is the presumed starter for at least the beginning of the season, you would have to figure either he or Trubisky can’t do much worse than last season’s quarterbacks.

Meredith is going far too late in drafts based on his potential. A 1,000 yard season is not out of the question, making him someone to keep your eye on for the later rounds of your draft.

Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints

Snead is coming off a very solid 2016 campaign as he posted 72 receptions for 895 yards and four touchdowns in only his second season in the NFL. He has had at least 100 targets and averaged at least 12.4 yards per catch in both seasons of his career.

The most significant loss for the Saints this off season was trading Cooks to the Patriots, leaving his 117 targets up for grabs. Some of those targets will be taken by Michael Thomas, but he already had 121 targets and 92 receptions in his rookie campaign last year. They also signed Ted Ginn Jr., but he has never had more than 56 receptions in any season of his career.

Drew Brees continues to put up big numbers as the Saints were first in passing yards, second in completion percentage and tied for second in passing touchdowns in the NFL last year. With Brees showing no signs of slowing down and Cooks gone, this has the makings of a big season for Snead. While he may not be a big contributor in the touchdown department, look for him to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Julio Jones - Atlanta Falcons - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons

There is no question that Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the league. He finished last season with 83 receptions, 1,409 yards and six touchdowns in only 14 games. Big things are expected from him again this season and he has great match ups during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 brings a match up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who he had 12 receptions, 177 yards and two touchdowns against in two games last season. Week 16 brings the Saints who allowed the most passing yards in the league last season. Jones is primed to put up some of his best numbers when it matters the most this year.

Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos

Thomas may not have great quarterbacks throwing him the ball, but that didn’t stop him from recording his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 receiving yards last year. He gets an excellent match up in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts who allowed the sixth most passing yards and tied for the second fewest interceptions last season. Week 16 isn’t that difficult either as he gets to face the Washington Redskins. The Redskins allowed the eighth most receiving yards and were in the bottom four in completion percentage last year. Look for Thomas to cash in during these two games.

Difficult Schedules

Terrelle Pryor – Washington Redskins

Although big things are expected from Pryor his season, his fantasy playoff schedule is a nightmare. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the worst match up of them all against the Broncos as they allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. If you are lucky enough to make your fantasy playoffs, your hopes better not rest on Pryor or you are bound to be disappointed.

T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts

While Pryor gets the Broncos in Week 16, Hilton has to face them in Week 15. One more great stat for the Broncos defense is they only allowed 5.8 yards per reception last year. Known for his big play ability, that’s not good news for Hilton. He will play the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16 who allowed the ninth fewest passing yards and tied for the most interceptions in the league last season. Hilton is an elite talent, but his value could be significantly limited in the final two games of the fantasy season.






MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 23, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Wednesday, August 23, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Corey Kluber - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Corey Kluber Vs Boston Red Sox
Park – Progressive Field
Opp implied total – 3.14

We do have a few guys to pay up for, and they all make some sense. Corey Kluber comes in at number 1, even though his price is steep. Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in the league so far and would be in the Cy Young discussion if he didn’t miss a month. Kluber has posted a .250 combined wOBA while striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings. In other words, he is elite. Super elite. He now hosts the Boston Red Sox, who are an admittedly intimidating offense. However, when you dig in, you get a lineup that Corey Kluber can do real damage against. The 1,2, 5,7,8, and 9 hitters all hold 20%+ K rates, so go ahead and throw out the notion that the Red Sox don’t K. They absolutely do K and if there’s gonna be a guy to get them swinging, it’s Klubot. He’s easily the safest option on the board and will be in all of my cash games. With that being said, I completely understand pivoting down to Marcus Stroman or Luis Severino.

Luke Weaver Vs San Diego Padres
Park – Busch Stadium
Vegas O/U – 3.70

In cash games, stick to the 3 top-end arms. They are far above the rest in terms of safety. In tournaments, however, you can get a bit wild. We do have some offenses to pay up for, so there is merit to fading the high-end arm. You also see a 3.70 implied total from Vegas, which intrigued me a ton. That’s a number you see on a team that’s facing an ace. The Padres had a big night last night and I’d like to think the public will stay away from Weaver. He’s a first-round pick out of FSU and a guy that can throw the baseball. That might sound weird, but watch him pitch and you’ll know what I mean. This Padres order is absolutely atrocious and will only be able to fit 2 or 3 lefties. Weaver has dominated righties since entering the minors and profiles as a guy that K’s around 8-9 per 9 innings. He pitches better in Busch Stadium and should be able to have a solid outing against one of the worst teams around. I like him a hint more than Lance Lynn.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Brian Dozier

Minnesota Twins @ James Shields (White Sox)
Park – Great American Ballpark
Implied Total – 5.62

You know the drill. If James Shields is pitching, expect the opposing lineup to be here. Shields has allowed a .409 wOBA to righties and .308 to righties. That doesn’t mean fade the righties, however. He still gives up the long ball to them and you can also expect some varied bullpen arms. There isn’t much else to say about James Shields, besides the fact that he’s a pitching machine with legs. Lefties absolutely obliterate everything he tries and it’ll be fun to see him face off with some of these guys. Eddie Rosario is actually my favorite of the bunch and one of my top overall plays on the slate. The rest of the order is pretty spread out, so go wherever you would like. Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler are interesting and way too cheap for the spot they are in. Don’t ignore the Twins offense when they’re expected to put up nearly 6 runs.

Main Stack – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar
Sneaky Stack – Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas, Jorge Polanco

Houston Astros Vs Edwin Jackson (Nationals)
Park – Minute Maid Park
Implied Total – 5.20

Edwin Jackson hasn’t been horrible, so people may forget how horrible he is. He will return to his old ways very soon and there is no better match-up than the Houston Astros. If there is 1 team to demoralize a pitcher, it’s these guys. While they may not be the most talented offense in the league, they just don’t stop. You don’t get a break from 1-9 and as a bad pitcher, that’s tough You will often rely on 2 or 3 batters towards the bottom of the order to pick up your pitch count and confidence. Against the Astros, you don’t get that. In return, you see pitchers sweating bullets by the 3rd and facing Altuve with runners on the corners. Jackson has also given up a .370 wOBA since 2015, so he just stinks. The ‘Stros can go absolutely bonkers and we don’t really know where the HR’s will come from, so take an educated guess.

Main Stack – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonalez
Sneaky Stack – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 – Season Long

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101

It’s that time of the year again. That time when you dust off your football jerseys and start getting text messages from your buddies talking about when your league draft day will be. Fantasy Football has become society’s latest epidemic and has become the ultimate way for friends, family, or even strangers to bond. And by bond, I mean to trash talk. Trash talk for four months. That’s if you are winning.

The key to winning is almost entirely linked to a good draft. Drafting can be complicated. There’s nothing worse than when you have your next pick in your queue list and the person before you snags him up before it’s your turn. Good times, good times.

But that’s why I’m writing this draft strategy outline let’s call it. That picture I painted above is going to happen, but it’s the teams that are able to think on their toes that end up making the playoffs and evidently winning a championship. So enough rambling. Let’s get to it.

Dividing the Draft Round

Creating a Ranking System

Creating Rounds/Position Tiers

Splitting the Draft in 3’s

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 - Season Strategies via Lineuplab.com

When I approach a draft, I found that dividing the draft rounds into sections is a helpful way to determine what my goal is in that round. I separate rounds into three sections. The Early Section, Meat Section, and the Late Section. Here’s a breakdown of the thought process during each of these sections.

“Early Section” or Rounds 1-5

Naturally, you’d expect the early section to be the most important aspect of your team. And it is to some extent, it is, after all these are supposed to be the best players on your team. But when I pick in the early section I’m not looking for “safe players.” Safe doesn’t win you championships and doesn’t always provide the best value. I look for players who have a high ceiling (meaning they can have a breakout game any given week), but players who also have a high floor (a good amount of base points to account for those weeks they don’t happen to have a breakout week).

Everyone always wants their first round pick to score 3 touchdowns and when they do you’ll likely win the week. But it’s when they don’t is when it that hurts your team’s overall performance. Finding a player with a good balance of high floor and ceiling helps in these early rounds helps you eliminate this problem.

“Meat Section” or Rounds 6-10

The middle aka meat section is where things unravel, but at least in my opinion, this is where leagues are won. Players you thought would be available during this section are no longer available, and players you thought would be gone in this section are magically still on the board. What I look for here is still a high ceiling, but the difference from the early section is that I’m willing to sacrifice the floor of the players.

In this section, we find players like DeSean Jackson or Adrian Peterson who are players that may not give us the greatest consistency but do provide big games upside in certain situations. Now it’s important to note; I’m not giving up on a good floor (base) all entirely. I’m still looking for players who are part of the offensive gameplan and provide real upside to have double-digit games.

“Late Section” or Rounds – 11-16

This is my ‘boom or bust” section. At this point, you already have your starting lineup already drafted and are starting to fill in the bench players. In this section, I sacrifice the necessity of a good floor, meaning I’m solely looking for players with high upside because they could provide a big boost to a team that already has a good balance between floor and ceiling. While there are instances where you’d want to draft a corresponding player that may be injured or suspended to begin the season, this is a good section to pick those players.

One thing I see a lot of fantasy players do wrong is draft players that they think would be best replacements for bye weeks or if one of their starting players gets injured. Those outcomes to me are situations you deal with on a weekly basis, and that’s what the waiver wire is for. But not on draft day. Draft day is about securing a team with the highest possible ceiling while maintaining a solid base for expected points.

*Writer’s Note* Don’t be the team that drafts the Broncos or Stephen Gostkowski before your final two rounds. These positions are interchangeable with the waiver wire, and often the points difference isn’t significant enough to justify passing on a player with good potential.

So now you’ve split the draft and have an idea for what players you are expecting. Now let’s put it all together and build a ranking system.

Creating a Ranking System

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 - Season Strategies via Lineuplab.com - Ranking System - Le'Veon Bell - David Johnson

There are several ways you can go about drafting a fantasy football team. One,  you can prepare your butt off so that you know team depth charts like the back of your hand. Two follow whatever site rankings that are defaulted when you sit in front of your computer. Or Three you could not prepare at all and just let auto pick choose the top guy available.

If you’re not one of those guys who could set his team on auto pick and still make the playoff,  I’d recommend approaching your fantasy football draft is a mixture of 1 and 2. Not everyone has the time to read every team preview and memorize each team’s depth chart, so we need to find a way to be more efficient with our time. Here’s how I start.

The biggest thing that will help you build a solid core to your team is creating your own rankings. Whatever site you use whether it’s ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sports, or even NFL, DON”T rely on whatever is automated in your draft room. Most casual fantasy players draft based on the default rankings in the draft room, by following them you limit yourself to finding players with greater value.

If you’re not comfortable creating your own rankings from scratch, take some time to look at other analyst rankings. Find two or three that you agree with and average the player’s rankings out. By doing that you’ll not only have expert type guidance, but you’ll be customizing it so that you have the final say on creating YOUR team based on YOUR rankings.

You’ll see a lot of Top 50 or Top 100 rankings. Here’s where the customization of your league comes to play. If you’re playing in a 10 team league, you don’t need to rank more than the top 50 players. If you’re playing in a 12 team league, that’s when you’d want to stretch the rankings to a top 60. The reason for this is you want to have coverage on players you like for at least the first 5 rounds.

Once you have your own “consensus” rankings, you’re ready to draft. Now here’s the key. No matter where you are slotted to be drafting, the key here is staying committed to your rankings.

By staying committed to your rankings, you’re finding players that you value more than others and have more control of your team.

Let’s say your heart was set on drafting a running back in the first round, but you have the fifth pick, and both David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are gone. That doesn’t mean you should force your way to draft LeSean McCoy when receivers like Mike Evans or A.J. Green, who offer better value are likely still available. At least according to my board.

A big reason to keep following your rankings is so that you don’t reach for players in a draft position that they are not worth (according to your rankings). If the player you think you want to select is not the first player on your rankings list, chances are you’re reaching for that player and passing up on a player with better value.

Follow your rankings list to the core for at least the first 3 rounds. After the first three rounds, you evaluate your team. You could be looking at a situation where you drafted three straight wide receivers. That’s not necessarily a bad thing this year when you consider that running backs ranked from 5-14 all have question marks, but at some point you need to draft running backs.

If you find yourself in this situation, use your rankings to find the best available non-wide receiver position player available. You want to make sure you have a decent balance but aren’t forcing picks that make you end up losing value.

A good way I found that’s helpful in keeping my roster balance in the first 5 rounds is creating round tiers. What that means is your labeling the players on your rankings into positional order.

Draft Tiers

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 101 - Season Strategies via Lineuplab.com - Antonio Brown - Odell Beckham Jr.

Create tiers based on your league size and by round. Say you play in a 12 team league you’d want to have 12 players in your first tier, second, and so on and so forth. This helps you visualize what round you would expect your top 60 players to go. So for a 60-player rankings you will have 5 tiers.

Once you have the over players tiers, then you separate the tiers by positions. If you noticed 6 running backs were in the first 12 players (tier 1) then you would classify those 6 running backs as RB Tier 1. You may notice that you don’t have any tight ends or quarterbacks expected to go in the first round and this is when you place value into the tiers.

Say I have 6 running backs and 6 receivers going in the first round. That would mean my first tier of wide receivers and running backs would be valued in the 1st round. You continue to do these positional tiers until you have 12 players from the same position in that tier. Then you check what’s that last player’s projected round and place value on the tier.

WR Tier 1

  1. A. Brown
  2. J. Jones
  3. O. Beckham Jr.
  4. M. Evans
  5. A. Green
  6. J. Nelson
  7. M. Thomas
  8. D. Bryant
  9. T. Hilton
  10. B. Cooks
  11. A. Cooper
  12. D. Baldwin

Starting with my top receiver to my 12th this tier should last me up until round 3, meaning this tier would be “WR Tier 1-3.” What this is saying is that I would be willing to draft anyone of these receivers within as long as it’s round 3. If anyone of these players should be available in round 4 I’ve found tremendous value.

Now you can choose to create tiers the way I do, or you can choose to create tiers based on players you would draft in that round. For example, if I’d break that tier down into rounds it would sort out like this.

WR Tier 1 Round

  1. A. Brown
  2. J. Jones
  3. O. Beckham Jr.
  4. M. Evans
  5. A. Green

WR Tier 2 Round

  1. J. Nelson
  2. M. Thomas
  3. D. Bryant
  4. T. Hilton

WR Tier 3 Round

  1. B. Cooks
  2. A. Cooper
  3. D. Baldwin

The problem I have with this is that I’m leaving out other players that I would consider drafting at the end of the 3rd round. There are receivers I would consider drafting in the 3rd round, but they didn’t make the top 12 of the position. That’s why I choose to sort it out based on teams and put the round value based on where that tier starts and ends.

Bring it All Home

I know that was a lot of information to take in so I thought I’d leave you with some nuggets at the end.

  • Divide your draft into separate parts to place value on the rounds/players you pick.
  • Create your own Top 50/60 ranking to cover your first 5 rounds.
  • Divide your Top 50/60 rankings into positional Tiers to help you view the value of the round you are picking them in.
  • Do not lock into any specific position in the first round. Follow your rankings and after 3 rounds evaluate how balanced (position wise) your team is.

Extra Point

Just because the top guy in your positional tier gets drafted doesn’t mean you need to rush into drafting the next guy on the board (i.e., Gronkowski gets picked there’s no need for you to rush to draft a tight end).

For my next article, I’ll cover a specific strategy for when to draft Quarterbacks and Tight Ends. I’ll give you my opinion on where to draft Ezekiel Elliott and other promising rookie running backs. As well as dive into pick strategies for first three rounds.

 

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 22, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Tuesday, August 22, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Chris Archer - Tampa Bay Rays - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Chris Archer Vs Toronto Blue Jays
Park – Tropicana Field
Opp implied total – 3.51

We finally have a nice slate with some strong pitching options. While we don’t have a bunch of aces in good match-ups, we have a pretty healthy spread of options at different price points. Chris Archer is the highest of all and comes in as the top option. He’s at home, facing off with the lowly Blue Jays. On the road, the Blue Jays have ranked 19th with a .311 wOBA and 22% strikeout rate. The upside is there with K’s and this lineup is nowhere near as lethal as it was in previous years. Once you get past the gauntlet (Donaldson, Smoak, Bautista), it’s smooth sailing. The lineup turns into a pile of garbage that can K as much as anyone. Chris Archer is also one of the best pitchers in the game, if that matters. He strikes out over 10 batters per 9 and has posted a .291 combined wOBA on the season. He can easily hit double-digit K’s tonight and have one of his best outings. This is Chris Archer, however, so he can also walk 2 guys and give up a bomb. While there will always be an inherent risk with Archer, I’m willing to play him in both cash games and tournaments.

Lance Lynn Vs San Diego Padres
Park – Busch Stadium
Vegas O/U – 3.51

I’m not one to target Lance Lynn very often. In fact, I don’t think I’ve played him since 2016. That’s also a mistake on my part, as I’ve missed some very solid games in situations similar to this one. Lynn isn’t too tough to figure out. He dominates righties and gets dominated by lefties. When looking to target Lynn, you want to see how many righties are in the opposing lineup. ThePadres have one of the heaviest righty lineups in the game and may end up being forced with 5 of them. Oh yea, the righties they have also stink. Lynn has held a .256 wOBA against righties and strikes out nearly 8 batters per 9. Lynn is very safe here and his price is fair. He makes sense in all formats and will help you pay up for a few bats, which is something that definitely matters on a slate like this. Lynn is also an excellent SP2 with Archer on DK.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

Anthony Rizzo - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Chicago Cubs - Lineuplab

Chicago Cubs @ Homer Bailey (Reds)
Park – Great American Ballpark
Implied Total – 5.58

The Cubs are facing Homer Bailey. We know the drill. This same game happened about a week ago and we saw one of the highest scoring games of the year so far with 23 combined runs. While that is very unlikely to happen again, it was very clear that Homer Bailey doesn’t have much left. He’s getting the ball plastered almost every at-bat and will soon be yanked from the rotation. If the Reds don’t do it, one of these rocket ships is going to end up hitting him and doing the deed for them. He’s allowed a .421 wOBA and 5.44 xFIP, all the while striking out just 6 batters per 9. Homer Bailey isn’t as bad as some of the White Sox pitchers, but he isn’t good either. He’s going to get walloped by the Cubbies and I want to be all over it. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are musts if you’re stacking the Cubs. DOn’t get cute. Further along, you can look any which way. In cash games, wait for the lineup to come out and make some fiscally responsible decisions. In tournaments, take a shot on a guy in the 6 or 7 hole who may not garner much ownership.
Main Stack – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist
Sneaky Stack – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras/Alex Avila

Baltimore Orioles Vs Paul Blackburn (Athletics)
Park – Camden Yards
Implied Total – 5.85

If you were on the Orioles yesterday, I see no reason to get off of them now. They are facing an even worse pitcher in the same ballpark, with lower implied ownership. They hold and 5.85 implied run total and do come in as one of the highest projecting offenses. Looking a bit deeper at Paul Blackburn, he is far from a standout. He allowed a 4.36 xFIP in AAA and hasn’t shown anything more yet. He’s been better against lefties, but don’t let the .260 BABIP fool you. Camden Yards is going to be rough for this guy and the Orioles will do damage. Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop will always be the top 2 options, with Adam Jones and Chris Davis to follow. You also have guys like Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, and Welington Castillo, so have fun in tournaments.

Main Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Chris Davis
Sneaky Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 21, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Monday, August 21, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Alex Wood - Los Angeles Dodgers - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Alex Wood @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Park – PNC Park
Opp implied total – 3.72

The truth of the matter is that we don’t have a lot of pitching on this slate. With just 8 games on the books, it’s somewhat expected. We do at least have a guy in Alex Wood that should have a solid game. The Pirates are projected for under 3 runs and can strikeout a good amount. We know how good Wood is, or how good he can be I should say. So far on the season, he’s posted an elite .249 combined wOBA and has struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings. He has controlled both sides of the plate quite nicely and has also dropped his HR issue from past years. As for the Pirates, they are as average as you can get. Against lefties, they’ve ranked 17th in baseball with a .316 wOBA. They K 20% of the time and are nothing to be afraid of in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Alex Wood is the top play by a mile and the ownership will reflect that. Don’t get cute in cash games.

Zach Davies @ San Francisco Giants
Park – AT&T Park
Vegas O/U – 3.91

Like I said, pitching is ugly. Whenever Zach Davies is the 2nd best option on a slate, my previous comment goes unsaid. He is at least facing off with the worst team in baseball against righties. The Giants have been dead last against righties with a .291 wOBA and have been only worse at home in the best pitchers park in the league. They do have some big-name bats, but they kind of stink. Buster Posey isn’t very good against righties and neither is Hunter Pence. the rest of the order is full of weak bats. While they don’t strike out much, they also don’t have the power to hit one out. Davies isn’t a great pitcher by any means, but he’s decent. He’s sported a .326 wOBA and has backed it up with a 6.5 K/9 and 27% hard contact rate. The park is optimal and I think Davies is safer than any other SP2 you will find.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

Manny Machado - Baltimore Orioles - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Lineuplab
Baltimore Orioles Vs Chris Smith (Athletics)
Park – Camden Yards
Implied Total – 5.83

While we don’t have a bunch of big pitchers on the slate, we also don’t have any gas cans that you can target with no caution. Chris Smith is the worst pitcher on the slate and he’ll be pitching in Camden Yards. He first pitched in 2006, which should actually tell you a lot. He’s 36 years old and is not going to find his way now. Through his 5 random years between 2006 and now, he’s allowed a .340 wOBA to both lefties and righties. He’s used to pitching in the Oakland Coliseum (top 5 pitcher park) and will have a ton of trouble moving to a top 5 hitting ballpark. Manny Machado is the top option and I wouldn’t consider making a stack without him. Schoop and Adam Jones are next as supreme cash game options. The rest of the order is filled with power and you can really go anywhere you want. Mancini and Trumbo are my favorites and should only be about 10-15% owned.

Main Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini
Sneaky Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, Chris Davis

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Robert Gsellman (Mets)
Park – Citi Field
Implied Total – 4.75

Honestly, I don’t love any offense after the Orioles. Gsellman is a talented pitcher that hasn’t found his footing in quite some time. Ths Diamondbacks team is good against righties and they hold a 4.75 implied total. On the season, Gsellman has been absolutely atrocious. He’s posted a .365 combined wOBA and has given up 14 homers in just 70 innings. He’s walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings and is striking out just 6. All in all, Gsellman is nowhere near where he needs to be. We know how lethal this offense can be and with the addition of J.D. Martinez, they have an insane 4-man cash game stack. Lamb, Goldy, Peralta, and Pollock are elite and they are the easy cash game stack. If you want to go crazy, I would look for a power bat towards the bottom of the lineup that will come in under 10%. Chris Herrmann will be that guy for me.

Main Stack – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt
Sneaky Stack – Jake Lamb, David Peralta, J.D. Martinez, Chris Herrmann