James Leer

Welcome to Lineup Lab’s MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article, where we feature our top stacks for our MLB Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your favorite players from the MLB Player Lab.

This season, new with our MLB Subscription Package we offer Daily Fantasy Graphs. We wanted to create a tool that gives users the ability to visualize data points for Hitters and Pitchers by showing DFS salaries/fantasy points over time. If any of you come from the world of Stocks or Equities Trading, you will immediately understand the usefulness of these charts. Just as price and volume are essential in understanding a stocks movement, points and salary are core for DFS.

STARTING PITCHERS

Robbie Ray vs Los Angels Dodgers
Park – Dodger Stadium

In what may very well be a pitcher’s duel tonight in Dodger Stadium, I think that Ray will end up victorious. Ray has been impressive so far this season, in his last start he tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Giants. In 68 at bats versus the Dodgers, they are hitting at .240. Quite a few of the top guys in the Dodgers lineup, seem to have trouble figuring out Ray’s deceptive sinkers. Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez all seem to struggle against him.

STACKS

Minnesota Twins vs. Danny Salazar (Cleveland Indians)
Park – Target Field

On paper this doesn’t look like that great of a matchup for the Twins, but this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the day. Brian Dozier has been riding a hot streak of 14 DraftKings points over the last 4 games that should carry over in today’s outing. Lifetime versus Salazar (Over 50 2/3 innings), The Twins have been fairing pretty well against Salazar (hitting .360 versus him in 73 at bats.) Players that I would recommend stacking today: Brian Dozier, Max Kepler and Joe Mauer.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Charlie Morton (Houston Astros)
Park – Minute Maid Park

Even going back to his ending days as a Pirate, over the past four years Morton has been struggling. Still searching for his first win this season, Charlie has allowed twelve hits and five earned runs over eleven innings in his first two starts. The Angels are the kind of offense that can explode at any given moment. Given the hot/cold nature of the Angels this stack has the potential to be relatively low-owned tonight. Mike Trout and Yunel Escobar should help get the job done for the Angel’s here.

Chris Durell

Welcome back for another night of daily fantasy baseball. With two matinee games we will turn our attention to the main slate of 13 games that gets underway at 7:05 ET. The slate is always an interesting one when the best pitcher in baseball (Clayton Kershaw) step son the mound. To fit him into your lineup with his elite salary, it will take some creativity and research to find those value gems. This is where Lineup Lab and their industry leading tools can help identify those players that will lead you to success on a daily basis. You can filter by position, game, and almost any stat you can think of.

They have an excellent weather page, lineups page as they roll in daily and of the lineup optimizer. Below is a just a sample of what I am looking at today at the catcher position. All the columns you see are fully customizable so you see what you want to see! Give it a try.

Starting Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard
Opponent – @ MIA
Park – Marlins Park
Vegas Favorite – NYM -150
Vegas Total – 7

Friday brings us a slate with much better pitching options than yesterday. It starts right at the top with Kershaw, Syndergaard, and Cueto. I lean Thor tonight as my top option for a few reasons. First of all, he is the cheapest of the three on DraftKings and second-most expensive on FanDuel. Then there is the fact Thor is having a fantastic start to the year going 1-0 while giving up just one earned run in 13 innings while striking out 13 and walking zero batters. He also gets a park boost tonight in Miami vs. the Marlins who he has a 34.5% K rate against in his career(via Baseball Savant). He is the #1 option on Friday and safe in all formats.

Julio Teheran
Opponent – vs. SD
Park – Turner Field
Vegas – ATL -135
Vegas Total – 7.5

With the amount high-end pitching options on tonight’s slate, Teheran’s price continues to sit in the mid $8K range which makes him an excellent PTS/$ play in all formats. He isn’t going to blow hitters away with his low 90 mph fastball but has been very effective to start the 2017 season. He has yet to allow an earned run in two starts(13 innings pitched) while striking out 10. He also bounced back after walking three in game one and walked just one in game two. The only issue is that he has given up twice as many fly balls than ground balls and his high 4.29 xFIP suggests he is more than due for regression. I just don’t think it’s tonight as he faces the Padres who are below average when looking at wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching and are currently striking out over 21% of the time.

Stacks To Target

Cincinnati Reds vs. Tommy Milone (MIL)
Vegas – CIN -125
Vegas Total – 9

They burned us last night but I am 100% going back to the well tonight. The good news is the poor one run performance from last night should help suppress the ownership tonight and the upside might even be higher. The Reds have been a top 10 hitting team in terms of wOBA so far this season but have been even better against left-handed pitching. They sit fifth overall in wRC+(137) and wOBA(.387) and have struck out less than 13% of the time. It’s early, so the sample size is relatively small(62 AB) but it is certainly a positive sign. Even looking at last year’s numbers, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Jose Peraza, and Adam Duvall all had a wOBA higher than .330 vs. southpaws. The Brewers starter Tommy Milone will not strike fear into the hitters with his sub-90 mph fastball and while he doesn’t walk batters, he gives up a ton of fly balls. On Draftkings I will have a lot of one through five in the order while FanDuel, I prefer two through five to get Suarez in there.

Kansas City Royals
Vegas – KC -130
Vegas Total – 8.5

The Royals will try and build off only their third win of the season last night as they took down the A’s 3-1 in the finale of their series. Don’t let early season struggles distract you from what is ahead. And today it’s a great spot for the offense of the Royals to put some runs on the board against J.C. Ramirez of the Angels. He will be making a spot start today and even with a 95 mph fastball and 50%+ ground ball rate, hasn’t had too much success early in 2017. In five innings pitched out of the pen he has allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out just three hitters and walking two. He is probably only going to get a couple of times through the lineup before the Angels manager Mike Scioscia turns it over to a bullpen that sits middle of the pack regarding ERA early in the season. I love starting at the top of the order with the Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain as both seem to always be in the 5-10% owned range while Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas have been around 20% owned on average. The Royals won’t provide a ton of power but can rack up some big innings with patience and a lot of doubles.

James Leer

Welcome to Lineup Lab’s MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article, where we feature our top stacks for our MLB Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your favorite players from the MLB Player Lab.

This season, new with our MLB Subscription Package we offer Daily Fantasy Graphs. We wanted to create a tool that gives users the ability to visualize data points for Hitters and Pitchers by showing DFS salaries/fantasy points over time. If any of you come from the world of Stocks or Equities Trading, you will immediately understand the usefulness of these charts. Just as price and volume are essential in understanding a stocks movement, points and salary are core for DFS.

Colorado Rockies vs. Jared Weaver (San Diego Padres)
Park – Coors Field

Same Jared Weaver, different uniform. Last time out for the Padres, Jared took the loss, allowing two homers through 5 IP while giving up 4 ER’s and 3 BB’s. As far as main slate pitchers go, he comes into today with all of the stats facing the wrong way: the highest xFIP (4.34), the lowest K/9 (5.2), the highest allowed wOBA .371, the highest allowed SLG .514, and the highest allowed OPS .863. Even though this stack will be super chalky, more often than not, this will end up a recipe for disaster in Coors field for Weaver.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Pomeranz (Boston RedSox)
Park – Fenway Park

Drew Pomeranz will be making his season debut tonight versus the Orioles in Fenway Park. Pomeranz, coming off of the disabled list was an unimpressive 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA at Fenway last year. With the wind blowing out at Fenway Park tonight and the Orioles with a solid ISO vs. lefties (.163), this could be a huge game for a couple of the Orioles; I’m looking at you Mark Trumbo. This game has the highest total (besides Coors Field) coming in at 9.5. Statistically, Pomeranz doesn’t do well in High/Home Scoring games, averaging just 8.21 Draftkings points per outing (over six games).

New York Mets vs. Buchholz (Philadelphia Phillies)
Park – Citizens Bank Park

Buchholz struggled big-time in his season opener vs. the REDS, having at least one runner in scoring position in the 4/5 innings that he pitched. Thanks to MLB Player Lab we can see that he is 2nd-worst in a couple of important statistical categories today: xFIP (4.29), K/9 (6). The Mets come into the game with a low 18.4% K-rate vs. righties, a .333 wOBA and a .166 ISO, giving them plenty of opportunities to reach base.

James Leer

Welcome to another edition of Lineup Lab’s NBA Daily Fantasy article, where we feature our top plays for our Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite players from the article below in our NBA lineup optimizer and hit calculate. Let it fill in the rest of the spots for you.

Tonight, we have two different main slates on each website (Fanduel & DraftKings) so we are going to be focusing on the Draftkings main slate which includes all games after 6 PM EST.

Find out why DFS Pros prefer the NBA over any sport. Get your subscription for our NBA optimizer and NBA Playerlab right now.

PG
Damian Lillard @LAL – $9400 DraftKings
Projected Points – 42.27 DK
Lillard has been phenomenal lately, in his last five starts he has averaged 51.6 DraftKings points and was in the perfect lineup every time. Over the last ten games the Lakers have given up 58.2 DK points per game, more than any other NBA team. Portland is currently battling the Nuggets for the final playoff spot in the West so Lillard will bring his A-game. Tonight he will be a must play in every format.

Goran Dragic @BOS – $8000 DraftKings
Projected Points – 40.34 DK
Tonight Goran Dragic will be guarded by Isiah Thomas and you know what that means, right? Lights out! The last two times versus Isiah and the Celtics, the Dragon has averaged 53.62 DK points. He is always quite dependable with a floor of 30 and a ceiling that can climb into the high 50’s.

SG
CJ McCollum @LAL – $7400 DK
Projected Points – 38.16 DK
McCollum has always been consistently underrated. He gets minutes into the high 30’s night after night and has a floor of around 30 with a ceiling of 45. The Lakers / Portland matchup will be a tasty treat tonight in every format.

Gary Harris vs. NO – $6000 DK
Projected Points – 26.61 DK
Gary Harris is one of the top 5 best three-point shooters in the league, with a percentage of 43.2%. The problem is that Denver now has their normal starting squad back so that may cut into Harris’ usage rate. However, he has always been extremely efficient when he does shoot the ball and he should have more opportunities tonight in a fast-paced matchup versus the Pelicans.

SF
Paul George vs. PHIL – $8700 DK
Projected Points – 40.09 DK
The Pacers are currently battling over a tight race for a seed in the East; every game matters right now. Paul George, currently the "lone wolf" putting the Pacers on his back has had a couple of remarkably strong back-to-back outings. George also generally crushes the Sixers, scoring 45.4 DK Points in his last five appearances against them. As far as shooting forwards are concerned, you would be hard pressed to find a better one on tonight’s slate.

Tony Allen vs. – $3800 DK
Projected Points – 19.7 DK
Allen, for the price tag, will generally bring the value so that you can save the money to pay up for other positions. For whatever reason, he seems to up his game when he plays some of the best. The past three games versus the Warriors he has averaged 33.75 DK points. If you’re looking for the GPP value spot of the night, this could be it.

PF
Anthony Davis @DEN – $10000 DK
Projected Points – 52.75 DK
The last time the Nuggets played the Pelicans Anthony Davis went straight up ham on them fools, scoring a remarkable 94.25 DK points!
DeMarcus Cousins is a game time decision with an ankle injury, if he is indeed out Anthony Davis is a no-brainer.

Julius Randle vs. PORT – $7100 DK
Projected Points – 37.03 DK
I love this matchup tonight, for Julius Randle. Why? The Trailblazers struggle against opposing power forwards, giving up 54.3 DK points per outing in their last 5 games, that’s 2nd-worst in the league. Also, he’s in the middle of a heater, recently having one of his best all-around games of the season against the Timberwolves (23 points and 12 rebounds). Even though he can be inconsistent at times I think he’ll be a safe play tonight in both cash and GPP.

C
Al Horford vs. MIA – $6900 DK
Projected Points – 31.16 DK
Al Horford has been playing at peak-performance lately, averaging 42.4 DK points over the last five games. Mr. Dependable this March, Horford’s price tag seems way too cheap tonight. Horford should be considered in all formats tonight as he seems to play even better at home.

Jusuf Nurkic @LAL – $7700 DK
Projected Points – 39.09 DK
Coming into last nights matchup Nurkic had a double-double in three straight games. He missed his fourth straight by one rebound, and had he played a couple more minutes as was his previous average he would’ve probably made it. With an appetizing matchup against the Lakers, who in their last five have given up 65.6 DK points to opposing centers, Nurkic will be making his way into a few of my lineups tonight.

James Leer

Welcome to another edition of Lineup Lab’s NBA Daily Fantasy article, where we feature our top plays for our Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite players from the article below in our NBA lineup optimizer and hit calculate. Let it fill in the rest of the spots for you.

Find out why DFS Pros prefer the NBA over any sport. Get your subscription for our NBA optimizer and NBA Playerlab right now.

PG
John Wall vs. BKN – $10000 FD – $9600 DK
Projected Points – 48.78 FD – 51.92 DK
Wall vs. the worst Defense in the league? Yes, please! Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace in the league; logically you would start to say yourself, "Hey, this isn’t working that well," and then maybe try and slow things down a bit? But, it seems that the Nets play in an alternate universe. Even though this game is likely to end in a blowout, Wall will still find a way to put up his floor of 50 with a ceiling of 70 DraftKings points on the night.

Tyler Ulis @BOS – $6200 FD – $7100 DK
Projected Points – 35.54 FD – 37.56 DK
Tyler Ulis is the future of the Phoenix Suns, since moving up to the starting position he has been perfect in 3/5 contests, with a double-double in each of them. Over his last five, Ulis is averaging 13.6 points, 10.0 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals with a colossal 41.8 minutes. Ulis isn’t just the future of the Suns he IS the Suns.

SG
James Harden vs. NO – $12500 FD – $12200 DK
Projected Points – 55.98 FD – 60.81 DK
Harden has been more than impressive lately, averaging 76.7 DraftKings points in his last three outings. Last time out on March the 17th versus the Pelicans he had a massive 83 point game. As far as studs go, Wall and Harden will be my top plays of the day.

Tim Hardaway Jr. @MIL – $5800 FD – $6000 DK
Projected Points – 27.08 FD – 29.44 DK
Hardaway has been stellar while receiving extra minutes due to the absence of Bazemore and Millsap. In Wednesday night’s game, he was perfect hitting 44 DraftKings points versus the Wizards. Look for Hardaway to get minutes into the high 30’s again tonight, as the Hawks are out of reliable options.

SF
Jimmy Butler @vs PHIL – $9500 FD – $9200 DK
Projected Points – 47.82 FD – 49.92 DK
The Chicago Bulls are currently a game behind the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. What does that mean for fantasy owners? It means The Bulls are going to be playing their hearts out. With Wade out and Rondo in, Butler’s fantasy game has even begun to improve. Last time out versus the Sixers Butler scored 55 DraftKings points, even though his salary has been bumped up a bit I believe that he is still undervalued.

Otto Porter vs. BKN – $5800 FD – $6100 DK
Projected Points – 30.99 FD – 32.43 DK
Even though Otto Porter has been in a mini-slump as of late, I like him tonight for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the last time out versus the Nets he scored 38.5 DraftKings points. The potential is there to come out of the slump and do some damage. Secondly, his ceiling makes him a nice GPP play. But, is this the night he bounces back? 8-ball says, "Outlook is good."

PF
Nikola Mirotic vs. PHIL – $4600 FD – $5400 DK
Projected Points – 24.27 FD – 26.51 DK
As mentioned previously, The Bulls are playing for the final playoff spot in the East. He is determined to finish the season strong, and with a season high of 28 points on Wednesday he is certainly on the right track. Though his salary has skyrocketed on DraftKings, on Fanduel it has remained low, making him an extremely viable option in all formats.

Marquese Chriss @BOS – $5000 FD – $5900 DK
Projected Points – 27.22 FD – 29.25 DK
Chriss has taken full advantage of his uptick in minutes due to TJ Warrens injury, going perfect in 3 out of his last 5 games and scoring a minimum of 30 DraftKings points in 4/5. Last time out versus the Celtics Chriss scored 29 DK points in 25 minutes. If he receives minutes into the mid-30’s tonight, I believe he is fully capable of having another 40+ FP night.

C
Dwight Howard @MIL – $7200 FD – $7300 DK
Projected Points – 38.53 FD – 42.07 DK
Even though Dwight Howard has been performing well, getting his fourth consecutive double-double, The Hawks are having a hard time winning after losing five straight. With plaguing injury problems to their starting lineup, the Hawks are going to have to find a way to start winning so that they can keep their No. 5 seed in the East. This is an important game to win as nipping at their heals are the Bucks to take over the five spot. Milwaukee isn’t great at defending the center position, over the course of the past five games they have given up 56 Draftkings points. Dwight Howard is in an optimal position to put the Hawks on his back and add some more 1’s in the W column.

Al Horford @BOS – $6800 FD – $6600 DK
Projected Points – 34.24 FD – 36.25 DK
Horford has been heating up lately, averaging 43.6 DraftKings points over his last five games. That’s over 6.5x value on DK. Of course all the heat is going to bring the bakers to the kitchen making him highly-owned in a lot of spots. But for a 50/50 cash on DK I think this is nearly a must-play.

James Leer

Welcome to another edition of Lineup Lab’s NBA Daily Fantasy article, where we feature our top plays for our Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite players from the article below in our NBA lineup optimizer and hit calculate. Let it fill in the rest of the spots for you.

Find out why DFS Pros prefer the NBA over any sport. Get your subscription for our NBA optimizer and NBA Playerlab right now.

PG
Ricky Rubio vs. SA – $7500 FD – $7300 DK
Projected Points – 33.62 FD – 37.07 DK
Rubio had been encouaged by his coach to shoot the ball more often. That’s music to the ears of DFS owners everywhere. In the past two games versus the Spurs, who Rubio hosts at home tonight, he has gone off averaging 48.38 Draftkings points while being perfect each time. His salary is a bit cheaper than where it should be; he should hit 6x value minimum tonight.

Tyler Ulis @MIA – $6400 FD – $7300 DK
Projected Points – 34.1 FD – 36 DK
With the huge price jump on Draftkings it might be best to roster him on Fanduel. However, in his last three games, Ulis has been perfectly hot, averaging over 40 Draftkings points and over 40 minutes per outing. It’s not a great matchup against the Heat away, but with the Suns seeming to rely heavily on him he should be a solid cash play.

SG
Klay Thompson @DAL – $7000 FD – $7000 DK
Projected Points – 33.82 FD – 36.92 DK
Klay Thompson looked spectacular versus the Thunder with 34 points and seven 3-pointers. Thompson should see a bump in minutes/usage due to Kevin Durant’s untimely injury. Four out of six times versus the Mavericks, Klay Thompson crushed the projections. Averaging 54.5 DK Points in those games while being in the perfect lineup each time. In the last five games, Dallas has given up the most points to shooting guards averaging 51.4 Draftkings points per outing. Look to roster Klay in every format tonight, especially GPP’s where he has tremendous upside.

Jimmy Butler @TOR – $8900 FD – $8900 DK
Projected Points – 42.64 FD – 44.74 DK
Butler, perfect in his last two games, is a top play of the night. He has been quick to carry the Bulls on his back while Wade is out for the remainder of the season. The time before last he crushed the Raptors hitting 70 Draftkings points. He has hit 45 fantasy points in three of his last four games and should be considered a top cash play on both sites.

SF
Harrison Barnes vs. GS – $5800 FD – $6300 DK
Projected Points – 28.14 FD – 29.78 DK
You never know when the Warriors are feeling furious enough to blow out a game, but if it stays close enough, Barnes will continue to see the minutes. The last two times in Golden State, Barnes hit 37 DraftKing points in each outing. If he gets there again, it will be a 6x value return on your money, a number that will win you some GPP’s.

Brandon Ingram vs. LAC – $4500 FD – $5000 DK
Projected Points – 22.87 FD – 25.1 DK
I’m not quite sure what alternate universe we are living in, but Brandon Ingram has suddenly become dependable. With a solid floor for the salary and a ceiling into the mid 30’s, Ingram has some value heading into a home court advantage versus their rivals, The Clippers. Last time out Ingram was perfect with 30.25 Draftkings points, with a minute increase over the last three games of ~8+ minutes I think that Ingram remains perfect again tonight.

PF
LeMarcus Aldridge @MIN – $7000 FD – $6700 DK
Projected Points – 31.89 FD – 33.05 DK
LeMarcus has been a little touch and go in February, due to injury concerns, but seems to be returning back to form. As long as he stays healthy, this could be a viable perfect lineup play. In the last two matchups versus the Timberwolves LeMarcus has scored 40.25 DK Fantasy points per outing.

James Johnson vs. PHX – $6400 FD – $6300 DK
Projected Points – 30.32 FD – 32.1 DK
James Johnson has crept his way back to fantasy relevancy. Over his last two games versus Minnesota & Portland, he has averaged 41.5 Draftkings points. He has shown a lot of improvement since seasons past, averaging career-high numbers in most categories. The Suns are nearing a league-worst over the past five games at defending Centers, giving up 65.1 Draftkings points per game. He will be worth rostering in any format on both websites tonight.

Sneaky Play: Gorgui Dieng

C
DeAndre Jordan @LAL – $7900 FD – $7000 DK
Projected Points – 36.91 FD – 39.77 DK
The Lakers against big men are in a word, pitiful. Over the course of the season, they have given up a shockingly bad 55 DraftKings points to opposing centers, 2nd-worst only to the 76ers. Last time out versus the lackluster Lakers, DeAndre scored 57.75 DK Points. If he sees the minutes, you can expect a close to perfect lineup performance.

Jusuf Nurkic vs. MIL – $6700 FD – $6900 DK
Projected Points – 32.99 FD – 37.76 DK
The Nurk Alert is in full effect as of late with his minutes increasing by ~11 over the last three games. In those three games, he has averaged 42.3 DraftKings points, just over 6x value. He has a high floor (~40) and insane ceiling, (remember the 81 DK point night versus the 76ers?). I quite like Nurkic in every format across every site tonight.

James Leer

Welcome to another edition of Lineup Lab’s NBA Daily Fantasy article, where we feature our top plays for our Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite players from the article below in our NBA lineup optimizer and hit calculate. Let it fill in the rest of the spots for you.

Find out why DFS Pros prefer the NBA over any sport. Get your subscription for our NBA optimizer and NBAPlayerlab right now.

PG
John Wall @CHI – $10400 FD – $9300 DK
Projected Points – 47.34 FD – 51.52 DK
Wall keeps getting better, but his price on Draftkings keeps coming down. At an $1100 discount, with his performances lately, how can you pass on such an opportunity? Even with the injury concerns, his career-high 20 assist performance over the Bulls was astonishing to watch. Wall comes in with a tough matchup against the Hornets, but at such a low price I think he is a near must-play on Draftkings tonight.

Mike Conley @CHI – $8200 FD – $7100 DK
Projected Points – 34.92 FD – 37.42 DK
What does Draftkings see here that I don’t? At yet another $1100 discount how can you say no to Conley? His last three performances have been perfect, eclipsing projections each time. The last three times he has matched up versus The Spurs it’s also the same story. With The Grizzlies in playoff contention, you can be sure that he will give it all he’s got in every performance night after night.

SG
Will Barton vs. HOU – $6600 FD – $6900 DK
Projected Points – 32.36 FD – 34.66 DK
Coming off of a career-high 35 points and perfect in his last two appearances, Barton is at the beginning of a mini-heater. With Gallinari and Wilson Chandler both out tonight, Barton will be a lock to get some significant minutes. I think he is worth rostering even with the huge price increase.

Gary Harris vs. HOU – $6000 FD – $5900 DK
Projected Points – 30.45 FD – 32.74 DK
Gary Harris another player with tremendous upside tonight. He is currently the most efficient shooting guard from the field shooting at an insanely impressive 49.2% clip. As mentioned previously, the Nuggets are short-handed tonight, so he’ll be seeing the minutes on the court.

SF
Trevor Ariza @DEN – $5200 FD – $5300 DK
Projected Points – 25.37 FD – 27.32 DK
This could be the mid-tier value play of the day as Ariza heats up towards the end of the season. Last time out versus The Nuggets Ariza was perfect, scoring 41.25 Draftkings points and 38.9 Fanduel points. Over the course of the last ten games, the Rockets are WORST in the league at guarding small forwards, giving up 56.3 Draftkings points to the position. This game has the potential to be a fantasy monster, as it holds a 240 point pre-game total.

Khris Middleton @GS Warriors – $6600 FD – $6500 DK
Projected Points – 28.21 FD – 30.52 DK
Middleton has played 30+ minutes nine out of his last ten games. Tonight against the Warriors, look for the Khris and Giannis to lead The Bucks offense vs. a lackluster Warriors defense who are performing at the second-fastest pace in the league. Middleton may be a bit chalky, but he also may be worth it.

PF
Nikola Mirotic vs. UTAH – $4300 FD – $4400 DK
Projected Points – 19.03 FD – 20.58 DK
With Dwayne Wade now out for the remainder of the season, Mirotic has taken full advantage of the opportunity in Chicago. He has been lights-out over the past three games averaging 17.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.7 rebounds. Flaming-hot, you would be hard-pressed to find a player with more upside at the price-point that Mirotic is currently.

Marvin Williams vs. WASH – $6600 FD – $6500 DK
Projected Points – 28.24 FD – 30.21 DK
Last time out Marvin Wiliams disappointed fantasy players everywhere, which could also be a good thing for those that decide to take a shot on him today. Williams came into the game against The Pacers with five double-doubles in his past six games, but The Pacers were too much for the Hornets to handle that night. The Wizards are, literally, a totally different ball game. Marvin scored 35.5 Draftkings points in 29 minutes, and with Batum back, his usage rate may decrease slightly, but not enough to warrant not rostering him.

C
Mason Plumlee vs. HOU – $6000 FD – $6000 DK
Projected Points – 33.84 FD – 36.83 DK
Plumlee is one of the best deals on the market for center currently. I expect his salary to increase towards the $7k mark before too long. Take Mason Plumlee while he is still inexpensive enough to roster. In his last three games he has averaged 37.7 Draftkings points and 35 Fanduel points. They love him in Denver and will continue to get the minutes.

Robin Lopez vs. Utah – $4500 FD – $3600 DK
Projected Points – 19.92 FD – 20.79 DK
Robin Lopez turned into an animal last night versus the Wizards, making 75% of the shots he took for 46 Draftkings points. While I don’t expect him to reach that rate versus the Jazz, there is most certainly value here, especially on DK. The last two times out versus the Jazz he has played well, averaging 38.5 DK points. Expect his usage rate and minutes to increase with the recent injury to Wade.

Which NFL jerseys are most popular in each state? The map above released by Dick’s Sporting Goods tells us quite a bit.

Here in Bronco country, where every other advertisement is an NFL Madden spot with Von Miller at the helm, its no surprised that 5 states in the mountain time zone are all Von Miller fans.

But what else can we learn? Some pretty interesting stuff actually. For instance, would you believe that Luke Keuchly out-sells Cam Newton in Carolina?

Other interesting tidbits:

1) Odell Beckham Jr. is king of Nevada
2) Alaska loves Julio Jones
3) Gronkasaurus Rex holds down Maine
4) Cam Newton’s jersey is #1 in Utah… not the Carolinas
5) Drew Brees’ kingdom extends into Mississippi and Alabama

Some of these make sense, some don’t. But there is almost always clear regional bias. After all, Maine is just New England’s Hat.

And aside from the few outliers, the vast majority of states love their star QB’s, Receivers, and Running Backs.

This paints one of the fundamental pictures of why professional Fantasy Football players study this data. Understanding bias.

We are all biased creatures, and that is ok. But recognizing it and removing it is critical in the Daily Fantasy world. That is if you care about your hard-earned money.

Irrational regional and recency bias are some of the most powerful psychological tools a DFS player can employ. How many Atlanta fans are going to roster Julio every Sunday? How many times have you heard “So-and-So is the GOAT/WOAT/whatever”. Or one of my favorites: “I’m never using [Insert Name] ever again.”

Recency bias is crucial. After a poor performance, the swath of fish in DFS land start complaining that “So-and-So is a complete bum, washed out, worthless”.

I can’t tell you how excited this makes me.

As SOON as a player has a significantly bad game, my ears perk up. I’ll review the footage, the numbers, and try to make a cold and heartless decision. Was this performance due to bad luck? Bad calls? Is there a personal life issue at hand? Scandal, divorce, or major contract negotiations? I’m not sure if you have played sports before, but it can be a pretty damn tough mental game too. When things get into players heads, they forget how to throw the ball to first. Or catch a 6-yard pass. Or they start duck-hooking every single golf ball into the pond.

When I come across situations like this, I pay very close attention to the context of his performance and try to determine if it was a fluke or potentially a short period regression. Because at some point, maybe even soon, I’m a buyer.

And of course, if a poor performance was precipitated by a real injury, a slow arm-death, or some other ‘real and obvious’ factor- then yes I’ll avoid the player too. Knowing who to avoid is just as important as picking the low-owned-soon-to-be GOATs.

Let’s think about the opposite side of the coin for a second- if an average or below average player has a huge breakout game, recency bias comes into play again. Look at the context. Did he get more looks/targets/at-bats? (FYI, you can easily see this in NFL Player Lab under the column “Target Trends”) Did someone get benched/injured? Was there a personnel change that could set this player up for a huge uptick in performance? Or was it just a random 95-yard play?

In the end, we must determine who to avoid (and buy) by trying to enter the mind of the fish, but never becoming one. Watch the Twitterverse, forums, TV segments, etc. Try to visualize who everyone will be running towards or away from with their mad-cow disease fantasy sports mentality. Remember friends, buy low and sell high. Markets are irrational. Use regional, recency, and just plain naive biases to your favor, always. This is how DFS millionaires are made!

James Leer

Welcome to another edition of Lineup Lab’s NBA Daily Fantasy article, where we feature our top plays for our Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite players from the article below in our NBA lineup optimizer and hit calculate. Let it fill in the rest of the spots for you.

Find out why DFS Pros prefer the NBA over any sport. Get your subscription for our NBA optimizer and NBAPlayerlab right now.

PG
Mike Conley @CHI – $8000 FD – $7600 DK
Projected Points – 38.02 FD – 40.35 DK
Over the last five games the Chicago Bulls have been the worst in the league defending the point guard position, giving up 59.2 Fanduel points per outing. Last time the Bulls matched up against the Grizzlies Mike Conley went off for 48 Fanduel and 51 Draftkings points. He should be a trustworthy guy to have in all formats, with a floor of around 38 and a ceiling of 54.

Ricky Rubio @BOS – $7600 FD – $7400 DK
Projected Points – 34.27 FD – 37.79 DK
Tonight the point guard position is the one to pay up for, Rubio has been excellent in his last five matchups hitting an average of 43.4 Fanduel points while in the perfect lineup each time. If Isiah Thomas is covering him the majority of the time, we should see Rubio take full advantage of this matchup.

SG
James Harden vs. LAL – $12000 FD – $12600 DK
Projected Points – 55.98 FD – 62.57 DK
Harden against the Lakers, does it get anymore appetizing than that?
Harden currently ranks second with a 53.5 Fanduel points-per-game average. You’ll see Harden at the top of the leader board again tonight; it’s just a matter of finding the value in other spots as the slate tonight is filled with bigs that should perform as projected. If he doesn’t get pulled early because of a blowout, you can expect him to clip mid-60’s.

Devin Booker vs. SAC – $6600 FD – $6700 DK
Projected Points – 32.8 FD – 35.54 DK
Booker has been nothing short of spectacular lately. He comes into the game riding a hot-streak in his last two matches, averaging 41 Fanduel PPG. This coupled with the fact that The Kings are giving up a league-worst 52.2 Fanduel Points per game in their last five to shooting guards screams that this could be the value player of the night. Last time out in February Booker scored an impressive 43.4 Fanduel points versus Sacramento. I’m expecting big things from Booker here.

SF
Paul George vs. CHA – $8100 FD – $8300 DK
Projected Points – 38.1 FD – 41.34 DK
Last week versus the Hornets Paul George scored 50 Fanduel points versus them. Even though Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is great at defending others in the position, It seems that Paul George’s quickness is his kryptonite. He can go off in any single game and has been beating projections in four out of his last six. Look for him to get the minutes as the Pacers continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East.

Harrison Barnes vs. – $6000 FD – $6400 DK
Projected Points – 31.32 FD – 33.16 DK
Barnes has been fairly consistent over the course of the season averaging 30.7 Fanduel Points Per Game. After the AllStar break, he has begun heating back up a bit. Last time out versus the Wizards Barnes scored 42 FD / 44.25 Draftkings points. With the positive pace differential in the matchup, Barnes should have more opportunities to make a difference for the Mavericks.

PF
Marvin Williams @IND – $6500 FD – $6500 DK
Projected Points – 26.77 FD – 28.63 DK
The talk of the NBA, Marvin Williams, has been performing at an astonishing rate lately, hitting 8x value on most nights. Over the past four, he has been perfect, averaging 43 Fanduel points per outing. Sure, at some point he will begin to cool down. But for now, he is all systems go in every format.

Willie Cauley-Stein @PHO – $5500 FD – $5600 DK
Projected Points – 31.09 FD – 32.35 DK
Cauley-Stein for the price is looking pretty, pretty good. Since the Kings traded Cousins, we have seen his playing time and usage rate increase. Tonight, in what Vegas predicts to be the second highest total (220.5), this will be a faster-paced matchup where WCS should get plenty of rebounds. He is one of my favorites at this price point, and can be played in every format on both Fanduel and Draftkings.

C
Karl-Anthony Towns @BOS – $10800 FD – $10900 DK
Projected Points – 46.79 FD – 51.03 DK
If Harden finishes first in fantasy points for the night, I’m predicting that Towns finishes close to second. In his last two games he has averaged 57.5 Fanduel Points, both of which were double-double perfect lineup performances. The three times that he has played The Celtics in his career, he has always managed to blow past projections, averaging 53.3 Fanduel / 57.3 DraftKings points per game. He will continue to dominate tonight.

Alan Williams vs. SAC – $5600 FD – $6300 DK
Projected Points – 35.08 FD – 36.56 DK
Alan Williams has been hitting value consistently, with six double-doubles in seven of his last games. Tonight, he gets one of his best matchups versus The Kings who are trending towards the worst of the pack giving up 52.8 Fanduel points in their last five games. With a price difference of $700 he may be slightly a better play on Fanduel than Draftkings, but make no mistake about it a double-double could easily be in the cards for him tonight.