While Westbrook didn’t earn himself a triple-double tonight he continues to wreak havoc in the NBA leading the OKC#Thunder to an impressive victory over the Mavericks.

Chris Durell

Well, we are now down to four teams and two games to determine who will battle for the Super Bowl. Normally, I would not get very excited about a two-game slate but this Sunday should be a lot of fun with tons of fantasy relevant plays. Not only are both games projected to be high scoring the Packers/Falcons game has a crazy high 60.5 Over/Under. Let’s take a look at each matchup and a few possible stacks for each team.

NFC Championship Game

Green Bay Packers (10-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Vegas Favorite – ATL (-5)
Over/Under – 60.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
ATL – 7th in Rushing (120.5 yards/game), 1st in Passing (295.3 yards/game)
GB – 5th in Rushing (106.3 yards/game), 7th in Passing (262.4 yards/game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
ATL – 29th vs. the Rush(104.5 yards/game), 19th vs. the Pass(266.7 yards/game)
GB – 14th vs. the Rush(94.7 yards/game), 22nd vs. the Pass(269.3 yards/game)

Like I mentioned above, this game has a crazy 60.5 Vegas Total and features two of the front-runners for the MVP award in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both quarterbacks led their teams to division championships with Top 5 offenses. Both finished inside the Top 5 in yards (Rodgers 4th with 4,428 and Ryan 2nd with 4,944) and finished 1st and 2nd in touchdowns. Here are my favorite plays and stacks from this game:

My favorite QB of this game, and the entire week, is easily Aaron Rodgers even with the question marks to his wide receivers. He was relied on by his team more than any other QB in the league this year with a crazy high 78% of his teams total touchdowns. This was due in large part to the non-existent run game, which is another reason I lean Rodgers as Matt Ryan has one of the top running back duo’s in the league behind him. Not that Ryan is a bad play, as no one that averaged 309 yards passing per game with a crazy high 9.3 yards per attempt could be faded with just four options remaining. Not only that, he threw touchdowns to 13 different receivers this year, an NFL record. For running backs, I will have a ton of exposure to Ty Montgomery and Tevin Coleman this week. They both come in that second tier and allow you to pay up for a high-end QB/WR stack with another elite player. Montgomery is coming off his second-best game of the season where he rushed 11 times for 47 yards and two touchdowns and also caught six of his seven targets for an additional 34 yards. For Coleman, it comes down to the savings you get off Freeman with very similar upside. Freeman has out-touched (39-28) and out targeted (18-11) Coleman over the Falcons last three games but it has been Coleman with the extra TD (3-2). There just isn’t enough difference in production between the two to warrant a $2,400 and $1,700 difference on DraftKings & FanDuel, especially on a small slate in a game projected for 60+ points.

Favorite Green Bay Stack – Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery, Jared Cook

Favorite Atlanta Stack – Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Tevin Coleman

Game Prediction – ATL 34 GB 31

AFC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) vs. New England Patriots(14-2)
Vegas Favorite – NE(-6)
Over/Under – 50.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
PIT – 8th in Rushing(110.0 yards/game), 8th in Passing(262.6 yards/game)
NE – 17th in Rushing(117.0 yards/game), 2nd in Passing(269.3 yards/game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
PIT – 11th vs. the Rush(100.0 yards/game), 12th vs. the Pass(242.6 yards/game)
NE – 4th vs. the Rush(88.6 yards/game), 23rd vs. the Pass(237.9 yards/game)

Sunday night brings us a matchup of two elite, veteran quarterbacks with six combined Super Bowl rings. While the game doesn’t have a Vegas Total of 60+, it is still very high for a playoff game at 50.5 points. When looking at stacking this weekend between the two games, this will be the game I have the least exposure to. Although the results from earlier this year are slightly skewed as Big Ben was out, there were some definite takeaways. Antonio Brown was barely slowed down catching seven balls for 107 yards with Landry Jones at quarterback. Even with a target on his back Le’Veon Bell was able to pick up 81 yards on the ground with an additional 68 yards through the air. He is virtually matchup-proof but the real question on a two-game slate is whether you are willing to pay a $9.5K+ price tag? He was much easier to construct a lineup with the last two weeks where there were four games and eight teams to find value. This week it is going to be nearly impossible to to have more than a couple Bell lineups as the overall roster upside is capped with limited value plays.

If you are looking for the top plays out of this game look no further than each team’s top wide receiver. They are ranked #1 & #2 in projected targets out of both games which should come as no surprise as they both averaged right around 10 targets per game during the regular season. If you are looking at the Patriots run game the most popular choice will be Dion Lewis who picked up three touchdowns in last week’s win(one rushing, one receiving, one return). It is tough to separate yourself on a small slate but my recommendation would be to fade Lewis for LeGarrette Blount in tournaments. Take the lower owned, less expensive option Blount who scored 18 touchdowns in the regular season and should see10+ touches in a game the Patriots should win at home. While his game vs. the Texans looked disappointing for the most part, he averaged 3.9 yards per carry while Lewis averaged just 3.2 yards per carry.

Favorite New England Stack – Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, LeGarrette Blount

Favorite Pittsburgh Stack – Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Eli Rogers

Game Prediction – NE 27 PIT 21

I would like to thank all of you for reading my articles all year and can’t wait for next year. If you have any questions at any time be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@jager_Bombs9) @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Even though the Houston Rockets lost, James Harden finishes the game with a triple-double vs. the Miami Heat. (40 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists).

Chris Durell

Welcome back to another four-game playoff slate as we enter the Divisional Round. While we had no games with a Vegas Total over 47 last week, we have two that exceed 50 as the Seahawks/Falcons and Packers/Cowboys are both sitting around 52 on Thursday morning. It comes as no surprise when you look at the quality of the teams. Of the eight teams remaining in the playoffs, six finished the regular season ranking inside the Top 10 in DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, there are only three teams who rank inside the Top 10 in overall defensive DVOA. This presents a great opportunity when stacking in tournaments. Let’s dig in and take a look at a few of my favorite options using the Player Lab Tool.

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Davante Adams, Randall Cobb
Secondary Options – Jared Cook
Correlation Play – Ezekiel Elliot

I start off the week going back to my top filters of “High Team Passing Yards/TD %” set at 70% or greater which this week only produces two options. Of those two options, I lean Aaron Rodgers and here is why; It comes down to Rodgers projected for close to four more pass attempts. Add to the fact his team relies much more on his passing with nowhere near the running game and I believe you have the highest scoring QB of the week. While Big Ben can certainly go off as he did back in Week 4 vs. the Chiefs (300 yards/5 TD’s), I don’t think they need anywhere near that production nor is it my belief that the Chiefs will allow it to happen twice. As for Rodgers, his red-hot stretch continued last week with 362 yards and four touchdowns. Get this, he has now thrown 300 or more yards and four touchdowns in three straight games and going all the way back to Week 11 he has 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The only risk is that he will be without his #1 receiver Jordy Nelson but it didn’t seem to matter after he exited last week. Devante Adams (8 rec/125 yards/1 TD) and Randall Cobb (5 rec/118 yards/3 TD) took over and Cobb even got the famous Rodgers Hail Mary pass for a touchdown before halftime. Jared Cook will also play a huge role in the passing game if Jordy is out and comes at a bargain price compared to the other options at the position on a small slate. What I like most about Rodgers is that he is nearly game script proof as they will rely on him heavily if the Packers are down. If the Packers get you to an early lead it will likely be due to his arm and the Packers aren’t a team to let up if they do get ahead.

The correlation play is something I have been using more and more towards the end of the season as I get better at predicting game flow. The Cowboys are 4.5 point favorites at home and expected to win this game. If they are to win it will be on the backs of their offensive line and rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott who had a monster season. The Cowboys have a bit of a mismatch in the run game this week as the Packers interior linebackers are below average. If Zeke goes off and the Cowboys are ahead, it will push a ton of extra volume towards Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Options – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Paul Richardson, Jimmy Graham
Correlation Play – Julio Jones

For the next stack, I will be riding with the only team facing a defense ranked worse than 20th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab. The Seahawks stack let us down last week, in large part to Thomas Rawls running all over the Lions defense in a 26-6 thumping. If you are playing tournaments on a small slate, you are going to need to find small edges throughout your lineup to separate yourself and fading the players that others will chase is a great start. Look For Rawls ownership to be through the roof this week making Wilson and the passing game a great pivot with a projected lower ownership than last week. For the Seahawks to stay in this game with the very balanced #2 offense in the league, they are going to need Wilson to produce one of his best games of the season. He only exceeded 20 fantasy points six times during the regular season but showed us his huge upside when he put up 37 DK/33 FD points against the Cardinals in Week 16. His #1 option this week should once again be Doug Baldwin who, as predicted, lead the team with 12 targets last week catching 11 for 104 yards and a touchdown. He has now scored in three of his last four weeks. Paul Richardson makes a terrific value option on both sites under $5K and showed off his hands last week making two highlight reel catches, one for a touchdown. If you are looking to be a bit contrarian this week pair Wilson with Jimmy Graham who is the next most expensive option after Travis Kelce who might be Top 3 in overall ownership. The fact that Jimmy has only recorded one touchdown in the last five weeks and hasn’t recorded a 100-yard game since week six will also keep his ownership down this week.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

New England Patriots & LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis

From a defensive standpoint, there is only one clear option and that is the New England Patriots. First of all, it comes down to them being a 15 point favorites at home to Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans. The Texans come in with the 28th ranked offense when looking at DVOA while the Patriots rank 11th in the defensive category. While the Pats sit in the middle of the league in takeaways and the bottom of the league in sacks, they have produced double-digit fantasy points in three of their last five games and get a plus matchup vs. Osweiler. He hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight games and hasn’t thrown for 300 yards once this season. He will have a tough time in Gillette Stadium and the Patriots should at least get one, possibly two turnovers with a couple sacks. They aren’t a must play, but if I was playing ten lineups the Pats defense would be in at least seven of them.

Whenever the Patriots are big favorites you have to take their running backs into strong consideration due to volume. The trick with the Pats is nailing down which guy will get the bulk of the carries. It was much easier early in the season when Dion Lewis was out as LeGarrette Blount had a tremendous year with 1,161 yards and a whopping 18 touchdowns. He has also been a beast in the playoffs with a three and a four touchdown game. The problem is that he has not practiced all week, so we will see what happens on Friday when the news comes out. If he is out the picture is much more clear as Lewis would become the bell cow and James White would most likely take on a little extra duty in the passing game which might be limited if the Pats get out to an early lead. For me, on a small slate, I will be using Lewis no matter what as he comes with a really nice discount allowing you to get up to some elite players. If Blount is cleared medically and starts the game I will also have some exposure to the playoff beast.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

Welcome back fantasy footballers! I went over the game by game breakdown at the beginning of the week in my Early Article and will now go over my favorite stacking options. Playoffs are a bit of a different animal for a few reasons, the biggest being the smaller four-game slate. It is also very tough to break down matchups as most of the poor defenses that we love to target have been eliminated.

To further explain this point let’s take a quick look at the Player Lab where we see that only two of the eight teams have defenses that rank worse than 20th against the pass. The good news? The Player Lab has much more data available to help you sort through the players and their matchups to make the best decisions for your lineups. Let’s dig in and take a look at some of my favorite stacks using these filters.

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Options – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Jimmy Graham

It was a pretty simple model to build this week for the first stack. I entered the “Poor Defense vs. Pass”” filter and only two quarterbacks get a matchup vs. a defense that is 20th or worse in that category. As you will read later in the defense/running back section, I am extremely high on Le’Veon Bell and the run game in the MIA/PIT matchup so I will be directing my attention to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. As we all know the Seahawks are a much better team at home and should be able to handle the Lions who have a starting quarterback that hasn’t been the same with a special glove on his throwing hand. When first looking at this game it appears Thomas Rawls would be in a fantastic spot with a splendid game script but looking further I will most likely be fading him. To close out the season Rawls finished with three straight games where he averaged under two yards per carry. OUCH! What does this mean for Wilson? Volume, volume, volume! He should see an uptick in pass attempts and very likely rush attempts as well. There have been reports he will shed the knee brace this week which really gets me excited about the upside of his rushing to go along with the passing. He gets an elite matchup vs. the Lions who rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass, gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to QB’s all season and the 5th most rushing yards to QB’s. He has shown incredible upside with top wide receiver Doug Baldwin and tight end Jimmy Graham. Playoff games are usually lower scoring so I wouldn’t stack Wilson with both but I will make multiple lineups with Wilson/Baldwin and Wilson/Graham.

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson, Devante Adams

For my final QB/WR stack, I turn to the Game of the Week between the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers. Both teams are definitely in play here as both showed up in a big way using the “High Team Pass & TD %” filters. The big difference here and why Eli was eliminated from this list is his low passing yards per game that falls outside the 270 or more window. With those filters in place, we have three options, and I have already explained why I am not stacking Big Ben or Stafford. That leaves us with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Although the matchup is not ideal (NYG rank 10th in Def vs. the Pass), it is going to be hard to ignore one of the front-runners for the MVP award. Rodgers put the team on his back down the stretch, leading them to the NFC North title despite a hobbled hamstring and lack of running game. Over the final seven games of the season, Rodgers was near perfect throwing 18 touchdowns with zero interceptions and ended up leading all quarterbacks with 40 touchdowns on the season. A large majority of those touchdowns went to two guys this year, both finishing inside the Top 3 among all wideouts. Jordy Nelson lead the league with 14 scores while Devante Adams finished right behind him with 12. Like I mentioned with the Seahawks, I wouldn’t stack both options with Rodgers but will have multiple Packers stacks with Rodgers/Nelson and Rodgers/Adams. I will most likely hedge a little bit more towards Adams this week as Nelson gets the very tough task of facing Janoris Jenkins.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

I started with the defense/running back stack this week as I feel it is pretty cut and dry this week. Before even looking at the Player Lab I was confident in both these choices but plugging in the filters totally confirmed my thoughts. Let’s take a look.

Houston Texans Defense & Lamar Miller

The Texans defense are the highest priced option on DraftKings and second highest on FanDuel but the difference in salary between the top defenses is extremely thin. The big difference here is Lamar Miller who comes at a $3,200 discount on FanDuel and a $4,200 discount on DraftKings when looking comparing him to Bell. When comparing talent Miller and Bell are not in the same conversation as Bell is the arguably the best running back in the game today. In daily fantasy we don’t just look at talent, we also have to evaluate the value of a player and situation. Miller and the Texans defense allow you to construct a much more balanced lineup this week. Without J.J. Watt, the Texans defense still ranked first overall in yards allowed per game (301.3) this season and while they ranked 26th in takeaways they get an elite matchup this week vs. a rookie QB making his first career start…..in the Playoffs!!! As for Miller, he missed last week’s game but the Texans had already locked up their playoff position so it was most likely a maintenance game off. That was somewhat confirmed this week as he practiced fully on Wednesday and will get a plus matchup vs. the Raiders who rank 20th in Defense vs. the Run. Miller had a bit of a disappointing season with just six touchdowns but he did reach 1,000 yards in just 14 games played.

Pittsburgh Steelers & Le’Veon Bell

A little more obvious this week is Le’Veon Bell who has everything going for him. Well, except the salary that has reached a season high on both sites. He is very likely to be 80%+ owned in cash games this week and I honestly think the 20% that don’t use him are crazy. The position gets real thin after Bell in a four-game slate and like I mentioned above he is arguably the best running back in the NFL. Then there is the matchup and situation. The Steelers will open the playoffs at home vs. the short-handed Dolphins who are without their starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Steelers open as 10 point favorites and Bell will go up against a Dolphins Defense that ranks 30th in Defense vs. the Run and has given up the 6th most fantasy points to the position this season. Look for some high usage from Bell with the high probability of a monster game.

The Steelers defense started the season slow from a fantasy point of view but finished strong with three double-digit fantasy point games in their final seven played. They also recorded an interception in each of those final seven games to go along with 25 sacks. They get a matchup vs. backup Matt Moore who threw an interception in three straight games to close out the season. This stack is more about Bell but the defense does have big upside in this matchup.

Honorable Mentions: Seattle Seahawks & Thomas Rawls

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

Full slate fantasy football has come to an end, my friends. I know, it’s a sad week but at least we still have Daily Fantasy for “at least” three more weeks. I say “at least” because DraftKings will most likely have another Pro Bowl/Super Bowl slate but you won’t find me anywhere near that nonsense.

The Wildcard round of the playoffs begins this Saturday with two games followed by two more on Sunday. In this article, I am going to break down each matchup using the Player Lab and give my initial thoughts on the top plays from each of the four games. I will then have my regular stacks article for you on Friday which will cover my favorite QB/WR combinations for tournaments. Let’s get started.

Playoff teams with BYE’s:

New England Patriots (AFC #1 seed)
Kansas City Chiefs (AFC #2 seed)
Dallas Cowboys (NFC #1 seed)
Atlanta Falcons (NFC #2 seed)

AFC Wildcard Game #1

Oakland Raiders (12-4) vs. Houston Texans (9-7)
Vegas Favorite – HOU(-35)
Over/Under – 36.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
OAK – 4th in Passing(253.2 Yards/Game), 15th in Rushing(120.1 Yards/Game)
HOU – 30th in Passing(198.5 Yards/Game), 27th in Rushing(116.2 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
OAK – 25th vs. the Pass(257.5 Yards/Game), 18th vs. the Rush(117.6 Yards/Game)
HOU – 5th vs. the Pass(201.6 Yards/Game), 17th vs. the Rush(99.7 Yards/Game)

We start Wildcard weekend with a less than intriguing fantasy matchup. The Raiders lost their star QB Derek Carr to a broken leg and ended up losing the division to the Chiefs in Week 17 and now have to travel to Houston. Solely looking at the stats the Texans are the worst team in the playoffs, but they did manage to win their division and now get a playoff home game vs. a rookie quarterback making his first start.

The game has a very low 36.5 point total due to the fact the Raiders will be starting a rookie quarterback in *Connor Cook** who will be making his first career start. He looked alright in relief last week completing 14 of his 21 passes for 171 yards with a TD and an INT, but the playoffs are a completely different beast. I would avoid him altogether going up against one of the best pass defenses in the league.

On the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler will be making his return as the Texans starter after being dethroned by Tom Savage a few weeks back. In a projected low scoring game I don’t expect Osweiler to attempt much more than 30 passes, especially considering Lamar Miller will be making his return to the lineup and should see 15+ touches easily this week.

I won’t fully fade this game for fantasy as I feel both running backs (Latavius Murray & Lamar Miller) could provide some value in a grinding style of game. It will most likely be the defenses that will decide who goes on to the Divisional Round next week making both of them excellent targets for DFS. For tournament play, I love the Raiders defense as they rank 2nd in takeaways (30) this season while the Texans rank 19th in giveaways (24).

Game Prediction – HOU 20 OAK 17

NFC Wildcard Game #1

Detroit Lions (9-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks (10-5)
Vegas Favorite – SEA(-8)
Over/Under – 43

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
DET – 13th in Passing(256.9 Yards/Game), 25th in Rushing(81.9 Yards/Game)
SEA – 16th in Passing(257.8 Yards/Game), 23rd in Rushing(99.4 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
DET – 32nd vs. the Pass(248.4 Yards/Game), 23rd vs. the Rush(106.3 Yards/Game)
SEA – 13th vs. the Pass(225.8 Yards/Game), 2nd vs. the Rush(92.9 Yards/Game)

Next up on Saturday we have the first NFC Wildcard match that has the Detroit Lions traveling to Seattle to face the Seahawks in the hostel environment that is CenturyLink Field. The Lions snuck into the playoffs by means of a Redskins loss on Sunday afternoon and it was a good thing as the Packers walked all over the Lions on Sunday night to take the NFC North title. For the Seahawks, it was a season with ups and downs and it stops and starts with their home-road splits. They struggled to a 3-4-1 record on the road while dominating at home with a 7-1 record, allowing opponents just an average of 16 points per game.

For fantasy, I am looking mostly at the Seahawks three-headed passing attack of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. I was quite happy to see the Seahawks disappoint offensively last weekend in San Francisco as it should help limit the ownership on the full four-game slate. With RB Thomas Rawls averaging under two yards per carry over his last three games, I think it opens up enough volume in the passing game where Wilson and Baldwin (at minimum) should be considered in cash games.

From the Lions side of things, I am only looking at Golden Tate and Eric Ebron who should be pretty busy in the slow dink and dunk style the Lions love to play. Tate should be in for double-digit targets once again and has seen that total in four of his last five games. I will be avoiding Matthew Stafford as the matchup is poor and he is still dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand. This also affects the upside of Marvin Jones Jr. who is the Lions downfield threat and hasn’t shown us anything really since early in the season.

Game Prediction – SEA 23 DET 17

AFCWildcard Game #2

Miami Dolphins (10-6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Vegas Favorite – PIT (-10)
Over/Under – 46.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
MIA – 17th in Passing(218.8 Yards/Game), 16th in Rushing(114.0 Yards/Game)
PIT – 8th in Passing(262.6 Yards/Game), 8th in Rushing(110.0 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
MIA – 14th vs. the Pass(242.2 Yards/Game), 22nd vs. the Rush(140.4 Yards/Game)
PIT – 12th vs. the Pass(242.6 Yards/Game), 11th vs. the Rush(100.0 Yards/Game)

To kick off the Sunday playoff action we get the Miami Dolphins traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The Dolphins got in by way of the second wildcard with a 10-6 record while the Steelers won the AFC North giving them home field advantage in this matchup. The Dolphins were just a .500 team on the road (4-4) this year while the Steelers had the second best home record (6-2) in the AFC this season. This fully explains Vegas setting the line at -10 with the Steelers projected for close to 30 points while the Dolphins are expected to score under 20.

From a fantasy perspective, I am focusing almost all of my attention on the Steelers side of the ball. Right at the top of the list is LeVeon Bell who despite missing three games at the start of the year, finished 5th in rushing (1,268 yards) and 2nd behind only David Johnson in receiving yards (616 yards) by running backs. What makes Bell an ever more elite play is the fact the Dolphins ranks near the bottom of the league in rush defense allowing over 140 yards per game. Ouch! The volume should also be there for the passing game as the Dolphins have a low high pace of 68 plays to their opponents per game when looking at the Player Lab Tool. This means Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown would make terrific high-end GPP plays this week. I don’t think the safety is there for cash games as Bell should be the dominant force in this game. If TE Ladarius Green plays he would make a nice GPP option as his role has grown substantially in the passing game.

Looking at the Dolphins, I will be avoiding the passing game for the most part as they will be most likely turning to Matt Moore once again this week. Ryan Tannehill is expected to get some practice time in but has little chance of playing. This limits the floor for Jarvis Landry but the lower price tag makes it intriguing for GPP’s, particularly since the team should be trailing most of the game. Jay Ajayi was a target for me early on but his higher price tag combined with his unspecified injury has me limiting my exposure to a few contrarian lineups for larger GPP’s.

Game Prediction – PIT 27 MIA 17

NFC Wildcard Game #2

New York Giants (11-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Vegas Favorite – GB (-4.5)
Over/Under – 44.5

Offensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
NYG – 21st in Passing(242.4 Yards/Game), 26th in Rushing (88.3 Yards/Game)
GB – 7th in Passing(262.4 Yards/Game), 5th in Rushing (106.3 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings (DVOA/Yards per Game)
NYG – 4th vs. the Pass (251.1 Yards/Game), 3rd vs. the Rush (88.6 Yards/Game)
GB – 22nd vs. the Pass (269.3 Yards/Game), 14th vs. the Rush (94.7 Yards/Game)

Finally, on Sunday evening we get the best matchup of the Wildcard round. The New York Giants will travel to Lambeau to take on the Packers. Both teams enter the playoffs already in full playoff mode in their own ways. With the dominance of the Cowboys against everyone but the Giants this season it left the Giants battling for the top Wildcard for weeks leading up to the playoffs. The Packers have been fighting and battling for six straight weeks following their blowout loss to the Redskins. *Aaron Rodgers** told the media he was fully confident they could run the table and he was 100% correct. Let’s get into the fantasy plays.

For Green Bay it is clearly Aaron Rodgers who is the top quarterback play of the week. He carried his team on his back down the stretch throwing for 18 touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 11. He did all of this while hobbling around on a bad hamstring which is just mind blowing when you think about it. Even with TY Montgomery taking over a role as the starting running back the volume has remained for Rodgers and the passing game. Jordy Nelson, after missing a season due to injury, has returned to elite form in 2017 leading all receivers with 14 touchdowns and finishing 5th in receiving yards (1,257). He averaged 9.5 targets per week throughout the year and had eight games with double-digit targets. As the year went along it was Devante Adams, not Randall Cobb who built a rapport with Rodgers and took over as the #2 option in the passing game. He finished the regular season just three yards short of 1,000 and also recorded 12 touchdowns. The matchup is not a slam dunk as the Giants rank Top 5 vs. the pass but the volume and upside in the Packers pass-first offense is not be denied.

For the Giants, the passing attack is the #1 target from a fantasy perspective. They only ranked 24th in passing during the regular season but the matchup is close to the best on the slate as the Packers rank 22d vs. the pass when looking at DVOA. They have also allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks of the regular season. Cue up Odell Beckham Jr. who is as electric as the come and is more than capable of scoring multiple touchdowns. He finished the year 3rd in receiving yards with 1,367 and also scored ten touchdowns. If Green Bay tries to put the clamp down on OBJ look for rookie Sterling Shepard to step up and make some plays. He comes at a discount price on both sites. The Packers are expected to win plus they have been excellent against the run so I will be avoiding the Giants RB’s for the most part. It might make sense to roster one of them in a GPP format if you feel the Giants will be in a favorable game script. The problem is that Rashad Jennings and Paul Perkins have been splitting carries making it hard to pick between them.

Game Prediction – GB 31 NYG 27

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

The final week of the regular season is upon us and we all know what that means…Chaos! There is really no middle ground. You either embrace the chaos or just simply take the week off and wait for the Wild Card round. Safety kind of gets blown out the window in Week 17 with varying levels of motivation for teams. Some teams are playing for the playoffs, some teams are tanking, some players are close to milestones, and some players will be playing for their future jobs. Before we get into the stacks for this week let’s highlight a few key situations to pay close attention to when constructing your lineups:

• The Cowboys, Giants, Steelers and Texans will have absolutely nothing to play for on Sunday as they are locked into their playoff positions.The Steelers will most likely be sitting Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and will be limiting DeAngelo Williams in his return from injury. The Cowboys have said they don’t want to mess with their rhythm going into the playoffs so I could see playing them as a contrarian option in tournaments. As for the Giants, coach Ben McAdoo has stated they will go all out and try to win the game. The only really play here is obviously Odell Beckham Jr. and I would not hesitate with his enormous upside. Then there is the Texans that should be avoided and I won’t even get into how bad they will get crushed in the Wild Card round.

• The Patriots will clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win or Raiders loss and the Raiders would clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win and Patriots loss. Expect both teams to ball out for that crucial home field advantage. I trust the Patriots more of the two as the Raiders will be without their star quarterback Derek Carr.

• The Chiefs are also in play in the AFC this week as they can win the AFC West title with a win and Raiders loss. Travis Kelce is an elite play at tight end this week with electric wide receiver Tyreke Hill in play in tournaments as well.

• Over in the NFC it is a bit more complicated. The Falcons clinch a first-round bye with a win, which is pretty straight forward. But, if they lose the Seahawks could grab that first round bye if they win Sunday.

• The Packers and Lions face off for the NFC North title on Sunday night. If the Lions win and both the Falcons and Seahawks lose, they would get the first round bye. Even more interesting is if the Redskins lose earlier in the day both the Packers and Lions will make it in the playoffs.

I won’t even get into the Buccaneers chances of making the playoffs. Let’s just say it’s about a quarter of a percentile chance.

That is quite confusing unless you read it several times but gives us a general look into most teams motivations going into their Sunday matchups. With that in mind let’s dig in to the Player Lab and find the top stacking options for Week 17.

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Options – Brandin Cooks
Secondary Options – Michael Thomas

If you’re looking for upside there is no better place to start than the highest total of the week. Not only is the Saints/Falcons game the highest total but it comes in seven points higher than the next closest game. The “High Vegas O/U” filter alone broke the options down to four quarterbacks this week (Rodgers/Stafford the other two in GB/DET game). By adding the “High Passing Yards” we narrowed it down to just two, both of which fall in this very high projected scoring game. Coincidence? Don’t think so.

I will start with the Saints who come in as the seven-point underdogs this week with their only motivation being keeping their division rivals from securing the #2 seed. It doesn’t sound like much but after a long season there is no way coach Sean Payton lets his team rollover and die in the final week of the season. Drew Brees is one of only three quarterbacks in the league this year to average over 300 yards passing per game and he lead the way with a whopping 324 yards per game.

The Falcons are easily the better team and should be able to get up early with a big play or two which could lead to picture perfect game script for Brees and the offense. The Player Lab and projections show us a high volume for Brees this week with a projected 44 pass attempts, which isn’t out of the question at all seeing as he has hit that total five times this season and now plays in the highest total game of the year. The Saints are a team where you can easily justify stacking a three-headed monster as there should be more than enough volume to go around. Brandin Cooks is the most explosive option and since his goose egg in Week 12 has seen eight or more targets and five or more receptions in four straight games. Michael Thomas has been a pleasant surprise in his first season in the NFL, leading all rookie wideouts in yards (981), receptions (82) and sits behind only Tyreke Hill in touchdowns (8). Load up on the Saints.

Atlanta Falcons
QB – Matt Ryan
Elite Options – Julio Jones

On the other side of the ball it gets a bit tricky and here’s why. We all know the upside with Julio Jones and Matt Ryan although we haven’t seen it lately due to a toe injury that Jones has been dealing with over the last few weeks. There is talk in Falcons camp that Julio could be fully unleashed for this Week 17 matchup where they are trying to clamp down the #2 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. We won’t know more until Friday after practice. As for Ryan, he is putting up a MVP-like season sitting third in passing yards (4,613), touchdowns (34) and completion percentage (69.5%) while leading the league with an elite 9.26 yards per attempt. He is also doing all this with a very balanced offense that includes the two-headed running back monster of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

The biggest thing for this stack is to pay close attention to the injury reports and news leading up to Sunday. I am really hoping the fear of Jones nagging injury will push people off the Falcons leaving them lower owned than the should be.

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Option – Jordy Nelson
Secondary Option – Devante Adams
Correlation WR – Golden Tate

I mentioned in the Saints write up that there were only two games (four options) when looking for Vegas totals over 50 points this week. Matthew Stafford has not been the same since getting his finger cast, so I will turn my attention to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. He is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings above average pass defense. It was the 10th time he has gone over 20 fantasy points and the fourth time going over 30 points. He now gets a Lions defense that ranks 28th in Defense vs. the Pass and have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks for the season. Rodgers has an elite option in Jordy Nelson who sits sixth in receiving yards (1,191) but leads all wideouts in touchdowns (14) and has seen double-digit targets in six of his last eight games. Devante Adams is the clear second option in the passing game as he has seen six or more targets in 10 straight weeks while Cobb has only reached those totals three times in those 10 games. With the NFC North and Rodgers “run the table” promise on the line, we can expect a massive effort from Mr. RELAX.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Arizona Cardinals & David Johnson

Although the Cardinals won’t be taking part in the playoff tournament this season, David Johnson should clearly be in the MVP discussion. He currently sits fifth in rushing yards (1,233) and first in receiving yards (841) among running backs. Johnson is also currently the only player with over 2,000 all-purpose yards this season. He became the first player in history to accumulate 100 or more yards from scrimmage in each of his first 15 games of the season and now has a total of 33 touchdowns in just 31 career games. He doesn’t get the best of matchups this week as the Rams rank 7th in Defense vs. the Pass but DJ is pretty much as matchup proof as they come.

The Cardinals defense makes an excellent correlation play with Johnson and also comes with some upside this week. They have been consistent lately scoring six or more fantasy points in six of their last seven games. On top of that, they rank sixth in takeaways (25) while the Rams give up the fifth most giveaways of any team this season. Add it all up and the Cards are due for their first double-digit fantasy game since Week 6.

Chris Durell

Well, boys and girls, just a couple more slumbers until Santa comes to town. If you’re an NFL fan, Christmas comes a day early with the main slate of games moving up to Saturday with a two-game slate on Sunday and the regular Monday Night Football game. This gives us a ton of slates to play with seven early, four afternoon and a primetime game on Saturday followed by one afternoon and one primetime game on Sunday. If you can manage to sneak away from your families, this is an exceptional opportunity to play multiple slates with a ton of people’s heads and lineups in the Christmas gutter. If you are playing a Sunday-Monday slate beware when considering Dallas players as a Giants win on Thursday night means the Cowboys have nothing to play for in the final two weeks. Expect the starters to be on the field but any sign of a tweak to an injury and you can all but guarantee they will be on the sideline. Let’s dig in.

I have removed the “Contrarian Stack” portion of this article. I feel each of the three quarterbacks shown above will be contrarian in their own rights and are excellent tournament options this week. Let’s take a look.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB – Jameis Winston
Elite Options – Mike Evans
Secondary Options – Cameron Brate

Out of the three options listed above, Winston and the Bucs will most likely be the highest owned but still contrarian. Why? Recency bias is a real thing and you will find a ton of people chasing Drew Brees and the Saints after their unlikely offensive explosion last week. It only takes one week as Brees was the contrarian stack last week and was sub 5% owned across the industry. I am certainly not saying I won’t have exposure to the Saints but they make it a much tougher route to the top of the tournament leaderboard.

I will be focusing a much larger portion of tournament exposure to the other side of the ball this week. They are going to be low-owned for a couple of reasons, first of which is the fact that the 16-11 dud vs. the Saints a couple of weeks ago is still fresh in people’s minds. Brees was in the middle of one of his worst slumps (2 games lol) of his career which completely killed the game script. Things are different this time around as the game will be played in New Orleans and Brees is coming off a monster game. Another reason the Bucs will be a low owned stack is the fact Mike Evans is the most expensive WR option on both sites this week. His upside is more than worth it leading the league in targets per game (10.9) and sits second in touchdowns by a wide receiver. Winston is very up and down but has shown us 25-30 point upside and at a projected lower ownership than Brees makes the better tournament option this week.

Oakland Raiders
QB – Derek Carr
Elite Options – Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree

The Raiders and Colts both have a ton to play for this week so expect a playoff atmosphere in the Black Hole. Oakland has already clinched a playoff berth but with a win and a Chiefs loss, would clinch the AFC West division title. For fantasy purposes, the Raiders make an intriguing option that I would consider a three-headed monster that is going to be low-owned this week. *Derek Carr is coming off back to back brutal fantasy performances throwing for 330 yards and one touchdown. TOTAL! Don’t worry; you can’t keep a good man down. Carr has shown us explosive upside with eight games of 20 or more fantasy points and nearly touching 40 back in Week 8 vs. Tampa Bay. He has two receiving options who have both been limited in practice this week but are projected to start in this important game. Amari Cooper is my favorite option coming off a dud last week, shadowed by Casey Hayward, Cooper was only able to catch just one of his season-low three targets. He has big play ability but has been hurt by the lack of touchdowns. The good news is the Colts allow 7.6 yards per attempt which is 25th best in the league. If you want to nail down the Raider touchdowns it is best to ride with Michael Crabtree who has eight on the season and has scored in two of his last three games. Both have great matchups against a Colts secondary that ranks 25th in Defense vs. the Pass. You can pair Carr with one or both of these options in large field tournaments.

Carolina Panthers
QB – Cam Newton
Options – Tedd Ginn Jr.
Correlation WR – Julio Jones

It appears to be a little too late for the Panthers although there is a tiny glimmer of hope if all the pieces fall their way. First of all, they need to win their game and not worry about everyone else’s matchups. It starts with their franchise, former MVP quarterback Cam Newton. He got back on track in Week 15 with his first 300-yard passing game and only second multi-TD game since Week 6. He looked extremely comfortable and was accurate from the pocket, limiting his rushing to just three attempts for zero yards. Playing Cam naked (no receiving options, get your head out of the gutter) is always a great choice as Kelvin Benjamin has fallen off the face of the Earth and Greg Olsen is a bit banged up and missed practice on Thursday. The one WR option I will pair Cam with is Ted Ginn Jr. who comes at a very low cost and is the deep threat option. He saw eight targets last week, catching four for 64 yards and a touchdown.

One strategy I love implementing in these high projected scoring games is stacking one side and taking the other team’s top wide receiver. If one team is scoring a bunch, the correlation is there that the other team will also have to throw a ton to keep up. I don’t even think it matters if the Panthers or Falcons come out scoring first, Julio Jones will be heavily involved when he makes his return. He leads the league in receiving and completely torched these Panthers earlier this year becoming the sixth receiver in history to record a 300-yard game. While I don’t think he will come close to that in Week 16, I do think he will get 100+ and a score at an extremely low-ownership due to the Q tag.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Green Bay Packers & Ty Montgomery

I fought between two or three options for this spot (TEN/Murray, PIT/Bell) but here I am going against my own team. Remember when the Vikings lead the league with a 5-0 record and were among the leaders in not turning the ball over? That is a thing of the past as they have now lost seven of their last nine games and coming off one of their worst of the season against the Colts where they turned the ball over three times. They go from facing a bottom end Colts defense to a surging and red hot Packers team that has tallied nine interceptions, three fumble recoveries, and 10 sacks over their last four games. Look out Sam Bradford!

Ty Montgomery is officially listed as RB after last week’s explosion. He rushed the ball 16 times for 162 yards and two scores against the Bears and now gets a Viking defense that has allowed 100+ yards rushing to their opponents in six of their last nine games. The three games that they limited opponents under 100? 85, 94, 97. Montgomery could be in for another large workload on the frozen tundra in Green Bay.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

Week 15 is in the books and Christmas is less than a week away. Don’t tell me you aren’t excited either. I mean, Santa already delivered an early present for football fans. Not only do we get our regular Thursday night game, which is actually a rather intriguing matchup, we also get a huge 12 game slate on Christmas Eve (Saturday) along with a two-game slate on Christmas Day and the regular Monday Night Football game on Boxing Day.

Before we get into the top matchups and breakdown for Week 16, let’s take a look at another one of my DraftKings lineups from this past weekend.

I talked about the Saints as a contrarian stack last week and did it ever pay off! I played 15 total lineups last week with exposure to the Packers, Cardinals, Raiders and unfortunately only played two Brees/Cooks stacks on the main slate and the one above was actually a late swap about half hour before lock. Every week I have been playing the main stacks in the majority of my lineups with a sprinkle of the contrarian stack due to the risk of the players, teams or both. The thing about going contrarian though is that when it hits and out performs the chalk it can make you a ton of cash. I may re-evaluate how many contrarian lineups I play moving forward. Ha! Luckily I also played some Saints stacks on the Thursday slate where the ownership was around 1%. I will continue to play 5-10 Thursday slate lineups with the huge opportunity that is available due to extreme ownership shifts to the Thursday game.

Now let’s look at the lineup construction:

QB – As I mentioned above, this was a late swap to Drew Brees. I originally had Palmer and Fitzgerald in the lineup but after Marquise Lee put up nothing more than a return TD, I decided I needed to try and separate myself from the field while also having a ton of upside. Enter Brees and the Saints who were coming off two horrible weeks in a row and went on the road. Brees was able to pick apart the Cardinals defense completing 37 of 48 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns.

RB – David Johnson was a staple in the lineup from the beginning regardless of his extreme $10K+ price tag. Notwithstanding game flow he continues to be an elite all-around back. He only rushed 12 times this week totaling just 53 yards but scored twice and also caught four of his five targets for an additional 55 yards. Devonta Freeman was also a staple in the lineup as I liked him all week leading up to this matchup. The Falcons were huge favorites to the worst rush defense in the league. It paid off as he rushed 20 times for 139 yards and three touchdowns. I was expecting much higher ownership from both of these running backs so I was thrilled when they were under 25%.

WR – With the cold forecast in Green Bay I turned some of my attention on a ton of my lineups to Ty Montgomery who was named the starting RB and projected for a ton of usage. He didn’t disappoint with 162 rushing yards with two trips to the endzone. Tyreke Hill was relatively cheap and comes with a ton of upside as he can score in so many ways. I felt he could expose a Titans back end that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last month. Unfortunately, he saw his lowest target share (3) since week 7 and caught zero passes. Fortunately for me, he made the most of his lone rush taking it 68 yards for a touchdown. The same can be said for my value/punt play Marquise Lee who also caught zero of his three targets (lowest since Week 8). He made up a little value returning a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Then comes the GPP gem Brandin Cooks who was also a late swap with Brees. Ending the day with over 186 yards and seven receptions, he made the most damage in the first half where he recorded 127 yards and two touchdowns. At less than 3% owned in the $3-1.1 Million Dollar Play Action he hit at just over 6.5x value.

TE – I credit all the Ryan Griffin ownership to the projections and
lineup tool on the site as he truly stood out as a punt play with C.J. Fiedorowicz out with a concussion. Griffin was already a part of the offensive scheme and was sure to see an uptick in targets. He ended up catching all eight of his targets for 85 yards and 16.5 DraftKings points.

Overall, I am extremely satisfied with the results of my late swap as it ended up paying off in a big way and netting me my best week of the year. It’s always fun to look back and see how things were constructed and could be done different and it’s clear that I should have replaced Hill and Lee with two more balanced $5K players. You live, you learn.

Before moving on the Game Balls I wanted to mention my Monday night stack of Cam Newton and the Panthers offense. I can’t stress enough the opportunity available in targeting the Monday night game in the Thursday slate and at a little less extent the Sunday-Monday slate. Cam balled out on Monday night completing 21 of 30 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns. He was the 15th highest scoring player on the entire slate and came in at less than 1% owned.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Drew Brees – It’s no surprise the top two quarterbacks this week came from the highest scoring game of the week where a combined 89 points were scored. Brees bounced back in a big way after back to back games at home throwing zero touchdowns. He completed 37 of 48 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns leading the Saints to a win over the Cardinals.

Carson Palmer – In the same game, which turned into a barn burner, Palmer also bounced back after a season-low 145 yards in Week 14. He completed 28 of 40 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns, making him the second highest scoring QB of the week.

Cam Newton – It was a week of bounce back performances at the QB position. Newton threw for 300+ yards for the first time since Week 6 with just his second game with multiple touchdown passes in his last eight games.

RB
Devonta Freeman – As expected the Falcons went run heavy on the 49ers league-worst rush defense. They ended up with 248 total yards on the ground, 139 of which came from Freeman who got 20 carries and scored three times.

Ezekiel Elliott – MVP? He would most definitely get my vote. He shined once again on Sunday night against the Bucs rushing 23 times for 159 yards, his seventh 100+ yard game of the season. Talk about usage. He is the only running back in the league that has reached the 300 carry mark this season and has a league-leading 1,551 yards, over 300 yards clear of second place DeMarco Murray.

David Johnson – It didn’t look promising early as his teammate Kerwynn Williams took an early rush 49 yards for a touchdown. Johnson made up for it despite only getting 12 rushes for 53 yards as he scored twice on the ground and also caught four of his five targets in the passing game. While Elliot has the rushing lead, DJ has the all-purpose yards lead (1,938) as he leads all running backs with 800 yards receiving.

LeSean McCoy – I now realize I left out the second-highest scoring running back so I quickly went back and slammed it in here. McCoy took advantage of an optimal matchup against the Browns rushing for 153 yards and two touchdowns and once again had another touchdown vultured away by Mike Gillislee.

WR
Brandin Cooks – He was electric on Sunday as he caught seven of his eight targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns. His inconsistent play all year was a huge reason the ownership was so low, but he continues to show us the tremendous upside he offers for GPP’s.

Ty Montgomery – He was the starting running back for the Packers but was still listed as a wide receiver on DraftKings so that’s where he falls this week. Either way, he had a monster day in the freezing cold in Chicago. He received 16 carries and totaled 162 yards and two touchdowns.

Golden Tate – While the Lions were unable to score a touchdown and finished with just six points, Tate had a big day for the 2.5% that rostered him. He caught eight of his game-high 13 targets for 122 yards.

TE
Charles Clay – Clay had his best game of the season in Week 15 against the Browns catching all seven of his targets for 72 yards and has now scored a touchdown in back to back weeks. He also came in around 3% owned in tournaments.

Cameron Brate – Brate was at it again on Sunday with his seventh double-digit fantasy game of the season, five of which were 15+ point performances. Oh ya, and he has only been priced above $4K on DraftKings once.

Kyle Rudolph – Rudolph was about the only thing that was positive for the Vikings as he hauled in eight of his ten targets for 97 yards. He has received double-digit targets in three of the last four weeks as Sam Bradford continues to rely on the short passing game with little no time in the pocket.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the New York Jets in the Passing Game
Defense vs. the Pass – 30th
This week’s Matchup – New England Patriots

For the season the Jets rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass on Player Lab and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. For what it’s worth, it could be worse as they limited Kaepernick under 200 yards passing two weeks ago. Considering the Jets rank 3rd in Defense vs. the Rush, we can expect a ton of usage from Brady and passing game. Even with a sub 200-yard passing game last week, Brady is still averaging over 300-yard per game over his ten games this season with a 22-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He is the most expensive option on both sites this week which should limit the ownership making him an elite GPP play.

Target the Cleveland Browns vs. the Run
Defense vs. the Run – 32nd
This week’s Matchup – San Diego Chargers

Shady McCoy ripped the Browns defense last week for 153 yards and two touchdowns while the Bills totaled 280 yards in total on the ground. The Browns now rank dead last vs. the Run on Player Lab and it is pretty clear why. They have now allowed 100+ yards rushing in nine straight and 11 of their last 12 games including back to back games allowing over 200 yards on the ground.

This week they face the Chargers who have a tricky running back situation early in the week. Melvin Gordon is expected to practice on a limited basis with a chance to get back in the lineup this week. If he doesn’t go, there is going to be a huge opportunity for Kenneth Farrow to rebound after letting his fantasy owners down last week rushing for just 39 yards on 15 carries. Personally, I am hoping Gordon sits out as the combination of Farrow’s bad week 15 and rise in price will most certainly offer under 10% ownership in large field tournaments.

Thursday Night Football

New York Giants(10-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles(5-9)
Favorite – Giants(-2.5)
Vegas Total – 42

Offensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
NYG – 25th in Rushing(81.2 Yards/Game), 22nd in Passing(239.4 Yards/Game)
PHI – 9th in Rushing(112.9 Yards/Game), 26th in Passing(227.5 Yards/Game)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
NYG – 5th vs. the Rush(90.1 Yards/Game), 3rd vs. the Pass(257.4 Yards/Game)
PHI – 15th vs. the Rush(104.9 Yards/Game), 2nd vs. the Pass(239.3 Yards/Game)

This week’s Thursday Night Football game takes us to a critical NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Giants in Philadelphia. The Eagles have fallen off the map losing five straight and seven of their last nine games.While they will not be going to the playoffs in 2016, they can try and play the role of spoiler as the Giants have yet to clinch their berth and can do so with a win and a Bucs or Packers loss.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s another case where I am going to push my strategy for avoiding the Thursday game in a Thursday-Monday slate and load up on the Monday night game. The ownership has been crazy over the last three weeks with players from the Thursday game filling the top 10 overall owned players. On the other hand, Tom Brady was the highest owned Monday QB over the past three weeks at just 3% owned.

If you just can’t fade the game completely, I would lean on the Giants passing game. The Eagles defense still ranks up there in DVOA defense but hasn’t fully adjusted to the second half of the season fall off. They have allowed the 6th most (DK) and 4th most (FD) fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. I would hesitate to use Eli Manning who offers little in terms of upside with just three games over 20 fantasy points. The ownership is going to be Top 5 for sure this week but Odell Beckham Jr. always makes a high upside play while Sterling Shepard would make a lower owned GPP option in this game.

For the Eagles, I would target Carson Wentz and Jordan Matthews. The price is low on both of them, but Wentz has targeted Matthews 10+ times in six of the Eagles last seven games. Zach Ertz also makes a safe tight end play as he ranks fifth at the position in targets per week (7.3) with double-digits in three of his last five weeks.

Another reason to jump on my “Fade the Thursday game” strategy is the fact that this is the second matchup between divisional rivals. This normally favors the defenses, which tends to sway me even more towards this being a low-scoring game. Looking at all the Thursday games this season (including Thanksgiving) the UNDER is 12-5 in 17 games played for what it’s worth.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab